3 Guaranteed Winning College Basketball Bets Wednesday From A 'Casual Fan'

Honestly, I kind of hate college basketball. The players, coaching, and officiating are all worse than the NBA. Frankly, I'm only betting on college hoops before March Madness because the NBA's regular-season product is an absolute clown show. At least I can rely on college basketball players showing up to their games. 

This is my way of saying: "I don't really follow college basketball (besides my alma mater St. John's), so take my picks with a grain of salt". That said, I did my due diligence for the bets below. Also, some of the lines I bet might be gone since I try to get "the best number". Because of this, I'll tell you what my "buy-price" is for these looks. 

College Basketball Best Bets: January 29 

  • Maryland Terrapins -4.5 (-110) vs. Wisconsin Badgers via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
  • Texas Longhorns +6.5 (-104) at Ole Miss Rebels via FanDuel, risking 1.04u.
  • Santa Clara Broncos +5 (-112) vs. Saint Mary's Gaels via DraftKings, risking 1.12u.

Wisconsin at Maryland (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET

The public will probably be on the Badgers on Wednesday because they are ranked and getting points against an unranked team. However, an old-school college sports handicapping angle is to fade ranked teams in conference games. That angle is stronger when the ranked team is an underdog against an unranked team. 

Otherwise, Terrapins freshman big Derik Queen is the most pro-ready prospect in this game and Maryland plays more tenacious defense. Queen is a big-bodied center who can push around Wisconsin's lighter bigs, and the Terrapins are 28th in defensive turnover rate, per Ken Pom, and the Badgers are 286th. 

Finally, Wisconsin is a jump-shooting team, which doesn't travel as well as attacking the paint. The Badgers are 28th in 3-point-attempt-rate (3PAr) and 350th in percentage of points from 2-pointers, per Ken Pom. Wisconsin is 36.2% from 3-point range on the season but has hit 34.5% or worse in three of four road games in Big Ten play. 

My buy-price is "Maryland -5.5". 

_____________________________

Texas (+6.5) at Ole Miss, 9 p.m. ET

The Longhorns have a much better shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, 12.9% of Texas's shot attempts are dunks compared to 5.7% of dunks allowed on the other end of the floor. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has an offensive "dunk share" of 7.2% and 7.1% on defense. 

Furthermore, the Rebels' defensive 3PAr is 328th nationally and the Longhorns are 34th in 3-point shooting percentage, per Ken Pom. Ole Miss will have to pack the paint Wednesday since Texas has more size. Hence, the Longhorns' outside shooters will get better looks from deep. 

Lastly, I just like this number for Texas, which kept it close with #1 Auburn (87-82 loss) and #8 Tennessee (74-70 loss), albeit at home, and comes into this game with momentum after rallying back from a 22-point second-half deficit to beat #15 Texas A&M this past Saturday. 

My buy-price is "Texas +4.5". 

_____________________________

Saint Mary's at Santa Clara (+5), 9 p.m. ET

I'm rolling with the college basketball gurus, Ken Pom and Bart Torvik, over the market. Pom gives the Gaels a 3-point edge Wednesday and Torvik has them winning by one point. Plus, the Broncos have a better shot profile. Santa Clara takes more dunks (7.8-3.2% in "dunk share") and 3-pointers (46.4-32.7% 3PAr), per Torvik. 

My buy-price is "Santa Clara +4". 

SIGN UP FOR TUBI AND STREAM SUPER BOWL LIX FOR FREE

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season. 

Written by
Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.