College Hoops Best Bets For Wednesday Include Indiana, Texas A&M
Even though I'm more of an NBA fan, it's clear that the college hoops slate is better Wednesday. There a few matchups between ranked teams highlighted by the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide visiting the No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers.
However, my college hoops gambling looks are for other intriguing matchups including Indiana-Northwestern, Arkansas-Texas A&M, and TCU-Iowa State.
No. 14 Indiana Hoosiers (18-7) at Northwestern Wildcats (18-7), 9 p.m. ET
This feels like a good spot to fade Northwestern's recent success. The Wildcats have won three straight games, all as underdogs, two on the road and the latest vs. then-No. 1 Purdue.
Northwestern also upset Indiana 84-83 on the road as 6.5-point 'dogs in their 1st meeting on Jan. 8. The Wildcats attempted twice the free throws (28-14) and Hoosiers PF Trayce Jackson-Davis had an off-night shooting (8-for-19).
Indiana F Trayce Jackson-Davis brings the ball up court vs. Northwestern at Assembly Hall at Bloomington, Indiana. (Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Since that loss to Northwestern, Indiana is 8-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS). The Hoosiers have been steamed from -1.5 up to -2.5 despite the Wildcats' recent performance and Northwestern's upset win at Indiana.
Furthermore, the Hoosiers are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games vs. teams with a winning record and the Wildcats are 5-6 ATS at home vs. winning teams.
Ultimately my Indiana-Northwestern handicap boils down to my belief Jackson-Davis will have a bounce-back game and the Hoosiers get some revenge on the Wildcats.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Indiana -2.5 (-110), up to -3
Arkansas Razorbacks (17-8) at Texas A&M Aggies (18-7)
The Razorbacks are still living off their back-to-back Elite Eight appearances in 2021-22 under 4th-year head coach Eric Musselman. Whereas the Aggies are still being held back by a poor start to the season.
Texas A&M started the season 6-5 overall with two losses to non-Power 5 schools outside the top-200 in net efficiency (Murray State and Wofford). But, since, the Aggies have won 13 of 15 and are 10-5 ATS in those games.
Their last loss was to these Razorbacks, 81-70, in Arkansas on Jan. 31. However, Texas A&M won the possession battle, out-rebounding Arkansas 39-37 and committing eight fewer turnovers (16-8).
Arkansas' Davonte Davis dribbles down the court against Texas A&M's Henry Coleman III at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/College Hoops)
If the Aggies can win the battle of possessions Wednesday, they should get revenge in their home gym. Typically basketball teams perform better on their home floor, especially in college hoops.
Also, both teams get to the charity stripe a ton and send their opponents to the foul line far too much. But, Texas A&M has a higher offensive FT/FGA rate and shoots 4.3% better from the free-throw line.
Arkansas attempted four more free throws and made five more vs. Texas A&M earlier this season. There's a good chance the Aggies gets some home cooking with the referees.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Texas A&M -3.5 (-110), up to -4
No. 22 TCU Horned Frogs (17-8) at No. 19 Iowa State Cyclones (16-8), 9 p.m. ET
This is a Pros vs. Joes game in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, roughly 55% of the money is on TCU in the consensus market at the time of writing and more than 60% of the bets placed are on Iowa State.
Typically, you want to follow the cash column of the betting splits when it's counter to the public because professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I. But that begs the question: "Why is more money on TCU?"
Well, my guess is that Horned Frogs G Mike Miles Jr. is returning to action Wednesday after missing the last four games with an injury.
The Horned Frogs were just 1-3 overall and ATS in those four games. Miles is scoring a team-high 18.1 points per game and is TCU's primary ball handler.
Also, the Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with a winning record and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five TCU-Iowa State meetings.
Finally, the Horned Frogs have a strength-on-weakness in ball security. According to college basketball guru Ken Pom, Iowa State is 233rd in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and TCU is 23rd in defensive TOV%.