College Basketball Conference Tourney Picks: Thursday, March 14

Enough of this NBA silliness because March Madness 2024 is upon us. For the record, I much prefer the NBA and, typically, I have more success betting on the Association. Granted, I'm getting spanked in the NBA this season. Regardless, sweating college basketball games in the middle of the day during March Madness is peak sports betting. I'll track and update my record daily in college basketball's postseason in the spirit of transparency. 

College Basketball Conference Tournament Bets For Thursday

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Big Ten: Penn State Nittany Lions (-125) vs. Indiana Hoosiers, 9 p.m. ET

Penn State got its Big Ten tourney started earlier than Indiana, who had a first-round bye. The Nittany Lions crushed the Maryland Terrapins 85-69 Wednesday, so they are already adjusted to the Target Center sight lines. The Hoosiers are a terrible shooting team too. They are 237th out of 362 D-1 schools in 3-point percentage and 346th in free throw percentage. 

Penn State Nittany Lions PG Ace Baldwin dribbles through traffic against the Indiana Hoosiers at Bryce Jordan Center. (Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports)

Additionally, Penn State waxed Indiana in both of their regular-season meetings. The Nittany Lions beat the Hoosiers 85-71 in Indiana Feb. 3rd then again 83-75 in University Park later that month. Penn State hit 14 more 3-pointers in those two games combined. More importantly, the Nittany Lions should win the "battle of possessions", which is the most important thing in one-and-done basketball. 

Per Ken Pom, Penn State is 84th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 24th defensively. Indiana is 211th in offensive TOV% and 309th defensively. Nittany Lions senior PG, and 2024 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Ace Baldwin is a big reason for this. Baldwin was the MVP for both Penn State-Indiana meetings this season and he had a combined 6 steals in those games. 

BET 1.25u on Penn State's moneyline (-125) at DraftKings. Give me the Nittany Lions up to -135. 

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Big East: Villanova Wildcats (+4) vs. No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles, 9:30 p.m. 

This line stinks. Marquette is only -4 favorites, which is hard to make sense of. The Golden Eagles are 2-0 vs. the Wildcats this season with 13- and 5-point victories. Plus, Villanova needed a go-ahead three in the last 10 seconds to beat a 3-28 DePaul team 58-57 in the first round. The Wildcats were -24.5 favorites entering that game. 

Furthermore, Marquette's second-leading scorer, PG Tyler Kolek will be out for the Big East Tournament. Kolek led the conference with 7.6 assists per game and made the All-Big East First Team. The Golden Eagles lost two of their three games without Kolek. Albeit to the UConn Huskies and Creighton Bluejays. 

That said, Pinnacle Sportsbook lists Marquette as -3.5 favorites as of 11:45 a.m. ET Thursday. Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker that other legal U.S. sportsbooks copy. It's known for booking the largest bets in the world. Well, Pinnacle is steering its whale clientele towards laying the points with Marquette. 

Ultimately, I'm fading Villanova's first-round clunker. The Wildcats rank 14th in D-1 experience, according to Ken Pom, and played in Madison Square Garden Wednesday. Perhaps the Golden Eagles have some ring rust and won't be able to beat the Wildcats by margin. Either way, Villanova appears to be the sharp side. 

BET 1.1u on Villanova +4 (-110) at Caesars. The Wildcats are bet-able down to +3.5. 

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Big 12: Cincinnati Bearcats (+7) vs. Baylor Bears, 9:30 p.m. ET

Cincy stomped a banged-up Kansas team 72-52 in the first round of the Big 12 tourney.  But, money is pouring in on Baylor. Per Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the cash at the time of writing is on the Bears. They opened as -5.5 favorites and are up to -6.5 market-wide and -7 at Caesars. Yet, the college basketball nerds think this will be a close game and I'm rolling with them. 

Cincinnati Bearcats forward John Newman III shoots over Baylor Bears guard Jayden Nunn at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion in Waco, Texas. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)

Bart Torvik, Ken Pom, and Erik Haslam all project Baylor to win this game by 3-4 points. The Bearcats are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked teams (the Bears are 14th in the AP Poll) and 8-2 ATS as an underdog. Baylor beat Cincinnati 62-59 at home in their only meeting this season. Bearcats SF Dan Skillings was Ken Pom's MVP of that game with 24 points. 

BET Cincinnati +7 (-110) at Caesars. The Bearcats are playable down to +6. 

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