3 Games Worth Betting In Friday's College Hoops Conference Tourneys

Well, my first day betting March Madness 2024 couldn't have gone worse. I lost three coin-flip games, one of my losses was in overtime with an underdog, which is the definition of a "bad beat". It's been one day and I'm already annoyed AF with college basketball. I'm going to destroy one of my TVs before the national championship. Okay. Now, that I got that rant out of the way, I'm ready to try and win my money back. 

Men's College Basketball Conference Tournaments Best Bets: Friday, March 15

The odds below are the best available at the time of writing.

Big East: 5-seed St. John's (+9.5) vs. 1-seed UConn 

I graduated from St. John’s in 2008 and my best friend graduated from UConn the same year. Needless to say, f*** UConn. If you want to fade me based on my bias analysis, so be it. I wouldn’t fault you. But, there’s no way I’m not betting on St. John’s over Connecticut.

Objectively, it’s not a great bet. The Huskies are the reigning NCAA champs and look even better than last year’s team entering March Madness. They mauled the Xavier Musketeers 87-60 Thursday in the Big East tourney quarterfinals. UConn is 2-0 straight up (SU) but 1-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. St. John’s this season. The Johnnies held a first-half lead in their 77-64 loss and non-cover at home last month.

St. John's Red Storm C Joel Soriano gathers for a paint attempt against Connecticut Huskies C Donovan Clingan at Madison Square Garden. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

However, St. John’s smashed Seton Hall 91-72 Thursday as well. On top of that, the Johnnies are ninth in D-1 experience, according to Ken Pom. Their head coach, Rick Pitino, is a two-time national champion with two different programs. Pitino is the only coach in college basketball history to pull off this feat. 

Finally, the sharper sports of Betcris, Bookmaker, and Pinnacle Sportsbook make St. John’s pricier than the legal U.S. sportsbooks. These are market-making oddsmakers known for booking the largest sports bets in the world. If Betcris and Bookmaker keep the Johnnies at +9, eventually DraftKings and FanDuel will follow suit.

BET 1.1u on St. John's +9.5 (-110) at Caesars. Give me the Johnnies down to +8. 

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SEC: 6-seed Florida (+4.5) vs. No. 3 Alabama, 9:30 p.m. ET

These teams split their regular-season series but the Gators covered both meetings. Florida lost in overtime 98-93 at Alabama in their first meeting last month. Then the Gators crushed the Crimson Tide 105-87 at home March 5. 

One of the reasons Alabama won't win by margin is because of Florida's 3-point defense. The Crimson Tide are 27th in 3-point percentage out of 362 D-1 schools and 16th in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr), according to Ken Pom. The Gators led regular-season conference-play in defensive 3-point percentage. 

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Sam Walters shoots a three over Florida Gators guard Will Richard at Coleman Coliseum. (Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports)

Another reason is Florida crashes the glass and 'Bama struggles to close out defensive possessions with rebounds. Per Ken Pom, the Gators are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate and the Crimson Tide are 229th in defensive rebounding rate. Lastly, Florida has a higher rate of dunks per 2-point attempts on both ends of the floor. 

BET 1.1u on the Gators +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings. Florida is playable up down to +3.5 

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Big 12: 3-seed Baylor (+1.5) at 2-seed Iowa State

The Bears have more size, D-1 experience, and a better shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, Baylor has a higher differential of dunks per 2-point taken vs. allowed. Iowa State attempts too many inefficient long 2-point shoots and Baylor does a good job forcing foes into taking contest long-mid-range jumpers. 

Furthermore, the Bears are fifth nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.0% and the Cyclones are 356th in defensive 3PAr, per Ken Pom. If Iowa State forces Baylor to chuck from behind the arc it might backfire. 

Baylor Bears guard Jayden Nunn goes to the hoop on the Iowa State Cyclones at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. (Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports)

Baylor beat Iowa State at home 70-68 in their only regular-season meeting despite the Cyclones committing nine fewer turnovers (20-11). The Bears won because they out-rebounded Iowa State 36-31 and hit seven more 3-pointers (12-5). On top of Baylor's 3-point shooting, it ranks fourth in the Big 12 for offensive rebounding rate while the Cyclones are dead-last in defensive rebounding. 

Not only do I see the Bears winning the rebounding and 3-point shooting battles but they should also get more freebies. Baylor leads the conference in offensive FT/FGA rate and Iowa State is 11 out of 14 Big 12 teams in defensive rebounding rate, according to Ken Pom. 

BET 1.1u on Baylor +1.5 (-110) at FanDuel. I'd bet the Bears down to a pick 'em. 

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