Hammering 2 'Blue Bloods' Among 3 Bets For College Hoops Conference Tourneys Friday

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Everyone is jacked up about the upcoming NCAA Tournament, and rightfully so. However, there is money to be made betting on the men's college basketball conference tournaments as well. You get the same nail-biting finishes, and if they don't go your way, you can make your money back in the Big Dance. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that. Either way, let's discuss the games on Friday that I'm "getting down" on. 

Men's College Hoops Conference Tournament Best Bets: March 14

  • ACC: Duke Blue Devils -7 (-110) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
  • SEC: Kentucky Wildcats +7.5 (-112) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide via DraftKings, risking 1.12u.
  • ACC: Louisville Cardinals +1.5 (-110) vs. Clemson Tigers via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.

North Carolina vs. #1 Duke (-7) in Charlotte, 7 p.m. ET

The Tar Heels will be a "trendy ‘dog" because of the injury to Cooper Flag in the Blue Devils’ 78-70 win as -23 favorites over Georgia Tech Thursday, and UNC had a seven-point second-half lead in an 82-69 loss to Duke in their regular-season finale. 

More than 85% of the bets are on the Tar Heels as of Friday afternoon, according to Pregame.com. Granted, I don’t bow at the altar of betting splits, but I’d rather be on the same side as the sportsbooks, as simple as that sounds. The Blue Devils covered that game as -10 favorites on the road and covered as -13.5 home favorites in an 87-70 win Feb. 1. 

Duke Blue Devils forward Kon Knueppel drives past as North Carolina Tar Heels SG Seth Trimble at Dean E. Smith Center. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Duke Blue Devils forward Kon Knueppel drives past North Carolina Tar Heels SG Seth Trimble at Dean E. Smith Center. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Plus, Duke is deep enough to beat this bad North Carolina team without Flagg, who wasn’t the leading scorer for the Blue Devils in their two wins over the Tar Heels during the regular season. Duke’s other freshman, forward Kon Knueppel, averaged 19.5 points on .667/.500/.818 shooting vs. UNC this season. Knueppel scored a game-high 28 points vs. Georgia Tech Thursday too. 

Lastly, the Blue Devils are one of the best shooting teams in the country and the tallest, while the Tar Heels are 305th out of 364 DI schools in average height, according to Ken Pom. Duke’s shortest player in its starting lineup is 6-foot-6 and North Carolina’s tallest player is 6-foot-9. Their size gives the Blue Devils an edge and their shooting will help them cover the spread.

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#15 Kentucky (+7.5) vs. Alabama in Nashville, 9:30 p.m. ET

The market is low on the Wildcats after they nearly blew their 85-84 win over Oklahoma Thursday. Kentucky led by 10 points with 1:26 remaining but needed a game-winning layup by guard Otega Oweh in the last second. But, I’m not holding that against the Wildcats because sh*t happens in March Madness, and it’s "survive and advance". 

This partially explains why more than 80% of the action is on the Crimson Tide as of Friday afternoon and Alabama getting steamed up from a -6 favorite on the opener. Also, ‘Bama beat UK in both of their regular-season meetings: 102-97 on the road Jan. 18, then 96-83 at home last month. That said, the Crimson Tide isn’t 7.5 points better than the Wildcats. 

The Kentucky Wildcats face the Alabama Crimson Tide Friday in the quarterfinals of the 2025 SEC men's college basketball tournament. (Photo credit: Will McLelland-Imagn Images)

The Kentucky Wildcats face the Alabama Crimson Tide Friday in the quarterfinals of the 2025 SEC men's college basketball tournament. (Photo credit: Will McLelland-Imagn Images)

These teams have similar shot profiles and Kentucky played at the Bridgestone Arena Thursday, so it’s more used to the sightlines of an unfamiliar venue. With that in mind, if the Wildcats are leading at halftime, consider "middling" by betting ‘Bama’s second-half spread. The three underdogs I bet Thursday were leading at halftime and two blew the cover. 

Finally, the three college basketball analysts I follow — Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam — make Alabama a -4 to -5 favorite in this game. Since there’s a good chance the public is moving this spread, I’m okay siding with those guys over the betting market.

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#10 Clemson vs. #13 Louisville (+1.5) in Charlotte, 9.30 p.m. ET

I like this matchup for the Cardinals because they have a better shot profile, which includes more dunks and threes. Per Bart Torvik, Louisville’s "dunk share" is 14.6% while Clemson has a 5.4% "dunk share" and allows nearly the same rate of dunks on defense. The Tigers attempt too many inefficient long-mid-range jumpers, which is the worst shot in basketball.

I hate returning to the "fade the public" angle, but the market gives Clemson too much respect. Maybe it's because the Tigers are ranked higher in the AP top-25 poll, or because they beat Duke this season, or because they made the Elite Eight last year.  Yet, the Cardinals beat the Tigers 74-64 earlier this season. 

The Louisville Cardinals meet the Clemson Tigers in the 2025 ACC Tournament Friday. (Photo credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images)

The Louisville Cardinals meet the Clemson Tigers in the 2025 ACC Tournament Friday. (Photo credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images)

Albeit, that was in Louisville. Nonetheless, Louisville shot 60.7% from inside the arc vs. Clemson earlier this season compared to the Tigers’ 43.9% from 2-point range. That type of discrepancy isn’t "lucky". Lastly, the Cardinals have a better net rating in away and neutral-site games, per Bart Torvik.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.