College Basketball Betting Picks For Wednesday Include Hurricanes Not Favored By Enough Against Seminoles
Going into Tuesday night, we had posted four-straight winning days on college basketball betting picks. Some bad luck cost a couple wins and the streak ended. Still, not the worst-possible outcome.
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 16 (1-2-2)
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Syracuse ❌
Charlotte (-2) over Rice ↔️
Georgia (+7.5) over South Carolina ✅
San Jose State (+3) over Fresno State ↔️
Utah State (+6) over New Mexico ❌
Very strange night where we lost badly on two picks, but ultimately should have picked up three wins. Charlotte won in overtime by two thanks to a ridiculous lane violation call that cost them a point. San Jose State gave up a buzzer-beating three to lose by that amount, giving us two tough pushes.
2024 record: 24-22-5, 52% (best bets)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 17
Colgate (-8.5) over Army
Colgate is more than 8.5 points better than Army. Like, quite a few more. Army is one of the worst college basketball teams in the entire country (334 out of 362). Colgate isn't good (171st), but they're over 150 spots higher than Army.
In terms of net efficiency, the two squads are separated by 15 points. I don't see why Army gets such a sizable homecourt bump here. Colgate does virtually everything better than Army -- they shoot better, defend better, turn the ball over less, commit fewer fouls, and rebounds better.
I'll give up the points here and add Colgate to my Wednesday college basketball betting card.
Furman (-15.5) over VMI
Really, much of the same story here. VMI is actually worse than Army (355th) and Furman is better than Colgate (151st). The net efficiency disparity between these two schools is 22 points. That's ... a lot.
Plus, Furman does one thing really well -- take away the basketball. They average over seven steals per game. VMI does one thing (well, many things) very poorly: take care of the basketball. They turn it over on over 20% of their offensive possessions. They rank in the bottom five in the nation in that category.
Furman's guards should absolutely tear apart VMI and completely run them out of the gym. This is a big number, but I like Furman to cover with ease.
Miami (-6.5) over Florida State
OK, so those of you who read me daily know that I generally like to fade homecourt advantage. However, it plays a bigger factor with teams who rely on outside shooting. Shooters shoot better where they're comfortable.
Miami can SHOOT the basketball. They connect on 41% of their three-point attempts, fifth-best in the entire country. They're also seventh-best in free-throw shooting (79%). Florida State is 217th in defending the three (34% opponent three-point shooting percentage). And, they foul a TON (306th in country, fouling on about one in four defensive possessions).
Miami is on my college basketball betting card for Wednesday night. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This is a major strength-on-weakness matchup where Miami has too much going for it and Florida State finds itself facing an opponent that exploits its biggest weaknesses. Plus, the Seminoles are playing their second-straight ACC road game. Miami's shooting puts them in position to blow this one out.
North Texas (-2.5) over East Carolina
North Texas rates nearly 100 spots higher than East Carolina, according to Team Rankings, and 120 spots higher on Ken Pom. East Carolina hasn't beaten a single team inside the Top 120 this season and North Texas sits squarely inside the Top 100.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green are 8-1 against teams outside the Top 100, which ECU very much is. They beat Wichita State on the road earlier this month, which is a tougher matchup than this one. Plus, UNT hasn't lost in a month and they've covered four straight.
UNT shoots better (51.5% to 48.5% effective FG) and defends MUCH better (43.5% to 50.5% opponent effective FG). Their defense should give ECU lots of trouble and defense travels. I'll swallow a couple points with the much better team on the road.
Nebraska (+3) over Rutgers
Nebraska is better than Rutgers at basically every predictive metric website, yet they find themselves as clear underdogs thanks to playing on the road. I get it, Big Ten road games are tough.
But the Cornhuskers have shown an ability to play with anyone, already collecting wins over Purdue and Michigan State. Plus, the beat Kansas State, a Top 50 team, on the road. Rutgers, meanwhile, has just one win against Top 90 opponents (Seton Hall, over a month ago).
That's it for me as we try to get back on track with another winning college basketball betting card. Good luck everyone!