College Basketball Betting Picks For Tuesday Include An SEC Road Underdog Not Getting Enough Love

After another winning day on Monday, our streak is up to four-straight winning days on college basketball betting picks. We've given 15 picks over that time and hit on 10. The pressure is ramping up, but we're ready for it...

College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 15

George Mason (-1.5) over George Washington ❌

Texas A&M Corpus Christi (+1.5) over Southeastern Louisiana ✅

North Carolina A&T (+3.5) over Hampton ✅

George Mason did not play well and we lost that pretty comfortably. However, both of our underdogs won outright on the road. And, actually, A&M CC was never not covering the number (biggest deficit was one point in the first half) and NC A&T trailed by only as many as five points the entire game.

2024 record: 23-20-3, 53% (best bets)

College Basketball Betting Picks, January 16

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Syracuse

Normally, my betting strategy is to look for spreads that are mispriced based on the underlying metrics of the two teams involved. However, that's not the case here. In fact, if I applied that, Syracuse looks a lot better. Pittsburgh is rated higher but their net efficiency is only about 2.5 points better than Syracuse.

So, why are we backing Pitt? Essentially, this line is fishy. Syracuse is generally a national power that the public likes to bet. Here, they are as high as +250 on the moneyline. I think books want to take money on Syracuse and I see some sharp action on Pitt. This spread opened at 4 and moved towards Pittsburgh.

Why? Syracuse beat Pitt in the front end of their home-and-home. Pitt is coming off a blowout loss at home against Duke. That's exactly why I'm suspicious. Plus, if you dig into the loss against Syracuse, Pitt shot under 50% from the free throw line. They're not a great free-throw shooting team, but they're not that bad.

Pittsburgh is on my college basketball betting card for Tuesday night. (Photo by Pamela Smith/Getty Images)

Plus, Syracuse really struggles to defend three-point shots. Now, you need the underlying data to show this. Their opponent 3P% isn't that bad -- but they've mainly gotten lucky. They rate outside the Top 300 in the country in allowing open three-pointers (20% of opponent three-point attempts are considered "open" according to ShotQuality). Pitt thrives on creating open threes and they shot 40% against the Orange in the first go around.

I normally like to fade homecourt advantage, but I think it's very much in play here. Pitt should be a lot better from the free-throw line and the crowd should be jacked up. Students returned to campus last week and expect them to show out. Plus, Pittsburgh had a week to prepare for this game.

Charlotte (-2) over Rice

Another bread-and-butter pick here, we've got a far-superior Charlotte team not getting enough respect in a road game. They just played UTSA on the road, so they most likely stayed in Texas for this one, cutting down on travel lag. Plus, they beat the Roadrunners 66-58.

Charlotte rates way better than Rice, and it's not very close. Rice is 240th in the nation, according to Ken Pom, while Charlotte is 117th. Both of these teams played UTSA, their only common opponents. As mentioned, Charlotte won on the road. Rice lost at home.

Charlotte is 3-0 against teams rated outside the Top 200 and 6-1 against teams outside the Top 175. Rice hasn't beaten a single opponent inside the Top 280. Their closest competition to Charlotte includes a loss to Louisiana at home by 17 -- and Charlotte is better than LA.

"The secret lies with Charlotte."

And that secret is add them to your college basketball betting card on Tuesday night.

Georgia (+7.5) over South Carolina

I do think South Carolina's homecourt plays a role here, but not enough to justify this massive spread between two very similar conference opponents. SCAR rates as the 65th team in the country and Georgia is just 10 spots behind them at 75th. The net rating difference is less than a point-and-a-half.

They have two common opponents -- Winthrop and Missouri -- and both won by similar margins. Georgia played a similar opponent in Arkansas and won by 10. In fact, Georgia hasn't lost to a team outside the Top 50 this season. And, three of their four losses this season came in November.

Granted South Carolina boasts a similar resume. Their losses came at Clemson and at Alabama -- two very good teams. But, their average margin of victory against teams rated between 30-100 is just 4 points. Plus, Georgia is 2-0 this season ATS as a road underdog.

Georgia is on my college basketball betting card for Tuesday night. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

UGA is also 5-0 ATS when they have 2-3 days off between games, which is the case here after playing Tennessee on Saturday. They covered against UT as 7.5-point underdogs, as well.

I don't think Georgia wins this game, but it should be a tightly-contested SEC matchup and I'll take the generous 7.5 points.

San Jose State (+3) over Fresno State

This is a classic spot that I love to play. Better team, on the road, getting points in a game where the homecourt advantage shouldn't factor in too much. San Jose is 60 spots higher in KenPom's rankings than Fresno and are, basically, an average college basketball team.

Fresno, on the other hand, is just barely inside the Top 220. They turn the ball over at an alarming rate (18.5%) and are worse than SJSU both offensively and defensively in effective field goal percentage, according to Team Rankings.

San Jose State's last game, on Saturday, was at Air Force. Air Force happens to profile very similarly to Fresno and San Jose beat them outright. They also played on the road at Wyoming, another similar squad, at the beginning of January. They lost that game, but only by two points as 5.5-point underdogs.

Meanwhile, Fresno's best win of the season came against New Mexico State. That means the Bulldogs have not defeated one team rated higher than them this season. They only have one win since mid-December and that came against 237th-ranked San Diego.

San Jose State should cover this spread, and I'll happily take the points, but the moneyline is also in play for my college basketball betting card on Tuesday.

Utah State (+6) over New Mexico

I thought for sure the public would be all over Utah State, since they're a ranked team facing an unranked team and getting six points. However, the early splits show that New Mexico is seeing a huge chunk in number of bets, but Utah State is seeing almost even money. That signals sharp bettors are on Utah.

That makes sense, too. These teams are incredibly similar, boasting nearly identical net efficiency ratings. However, Utah State has a solid advantage offensively, posting an effective shooting percentage 2.5% higher than UNM.

Neither team turns the ball over much, and both rebound at similar rates. New Mexico has a slight three-point shooting edge (34% to 33%) but Utah is better from the charity stripe (72% to 69%). These teams have five common opponents this season: UC Irvine, Santa Clara, Colorado State, Wyoming and UNLV. Utah State beat all five. New Mexico went 3-2 in those games.

Plus, Utah State has covered five of the last six against New Mexico, dating back to 2021. Utah State has one loss this season, at Bradley back in November. They've faced six Top 100 opponents and gone 5-1. New Mexico is 2-3 against Top 100 opponents.

Again, not sure Utah State wins outright, but six points is just too large of a spread to pass up.

That's it for my college basketball betting picks for Tuesday, good luck everyone!