College Basketball Betting Picks For Thursday Include Big Ten Favorite Covering Big Number At Home

I'm not going to sugarcoat it: Wednesday night was rough. After a four-day streak of winning, we posted our second-consecutive losing day with college basketball betting picks. Not ideal.

But, I got a DM on X that reminded me why I do this.

Someone on X is unhappy with my college basketball betting picks. (Screenshot: X.com)

I do it for the fans.

College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 17 (1-4)

Colgate (-8.5) over Army ❌

Furman (-15.5) over VMI ✅

Miami (-6.5) over Florida State ❌

North Texas (-2.5) over East Carolina ❌

Nebraska (+3) over Rutgers ❌

To be completely honest, Wednesday was rough for me, personally. Once again, we got hit by some ridiculous late-game antics that cost us a couple wins. I was texting with a friend of mine who I frequently talk to about college basketball.

I mentioned that it's tough to have these days and it seems like they happen too frequently. Here's what he wrote back:

"If anyone was paying attention, you’ve been losing picks brutally at a way higher rate than you’ve been winning them luckily. That’s just simple statistics that’ll turn eventually. If your crappy luck stretch is .500, a lot of people who do what you do would kill for that."

Yeah, so take that @newsacc17730545.

2024 record: 25-26-5 (best bets)

College Basketball Betting Picks, January 18

Advanced data courtesy Ken Pom and Team Rankings. Lines are as of Thursday afternoon using the best possible odds across all available online sportsbooks.

Because shooters shoot, I'm giving out SEVEN picks for Thursday. We're getting back on track, I can feel it...

Vermont (-6.5) over Binghamton

Vermont has several things going for it that make it a strong play as a heavy favorite. They don't foul and they don't turn the ball over. The Catamounts rank in the Top 50 in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio. They move the ball well and should keep Binghamton's defense on its heels.

Binghamton is getting too much homecourt boost here for my liking. They are 12 points worse in net efficiency. In a similar matchup against Colgate, the Bearcats lost by 35 points. Other comparable games include Bryant (lost by 8) and St. Bonaventure (lost by 26).

They don't shoot well from the free-throw line (66%) or from three (31%). Bad combination for an underdog. Plus, there's sharp money on Vermont.

Michigan State (-11) over Minnesota

This is a big number and dangerous play for a Big Ten conference game. However, Michigan State is starting to come around after a slow start. They lost a heartbreaker at Indiana by three points last week but bounced-back with a massive win over Rutgers (18 points). Rutgers and Minnesota are similar and Rutgers actually rates as slightly better.

Tyson Walker and the Michigan State Spartans are on my college basketball betting card for Thursday. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

The Spartans are 3-0 at home during Big Ten play with an average margin of victory of 20 points and winning all three by at least 12. Conversely, Minnesota lost to Indiana on the road by 12 and just lost at home to Iowa. Michigan State is the best opponent they've played all season, so I expect some struggles.

Memphis (-10.5) over South Florida

Memphis is a tournament-quality team rated inside the Top 50 of Division-I. South Florida barely cracks the Top 150. For teams like Memphis, resume is important. That means they don't just need to beat teams like South Florida, they need to win convincingly.

The Tigers are better offensively, defensively and on the glass. Plus, South Florida just hasn't faced any strong competition this year. Memphis is their best opponent by far and the only one likely to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers can, and should, easily cruise in this one.

Marshall (+1.5) over Old Dominion

This is a strange one because Marshall is far better in nearly every predictive metric than ODU. Marshall rates higher in net efficiency by nearly five points. Their effective field goal percentage offense and defense are both better. They rebound better and get to the free throw line more frequently.

Interestingly, Marshall seems to play better on the road. They only have two losses away from home and one came by just one point (against Toledo, which is far better than Dominion). The other came against a Top 20 opponent. They're 4-1 ATS in true road games.

Old Dominion struggles to cover at home, going just 1-4 ATS so far this season. And, they haven't covered a spread of any kind since before Christmas and are an unfathomable 1-11 against-the-spread overall this season. I don't see that changing here.

UT Martin (+9.5) over Morehead State

UT Martin is 3-1 this season as underdogs of fewer than 10 points and we get just below that number here. All three wins came on the road, too. Morehead is coming off a brutal loss to SIU Edward where they lost outright by 13 points as five-point favorites.

UT Martin shoots really well from three-point range (36%) and from the free-throw line (75%). Those are important components in pulling off upsets in college basketball. They're better than Morehead in both categories. Not saying UTM wins outright, but thankfully we don't need them to do that.

North Dakota (+2) over Oral Roberts

This matchup comes down to second-chance opportunities. North Dakota gets them and Oral Roberts doesn't. UND grabs offensive boards 28% of the time and ranks in the Top 150. Oral Roberts is at 18% is nearly the bottom in all of Division-I.

North Dakota gets to the free throw line frequently and Oral Roberts commits nearly 18 fouls per game. Additionally, the number of bets on each side is nearly 50% both ways, but North Dakota is getting a lot more of the total money (77%).

St. Thomas (-5.5) over South Dakota

South Dakota just doesn't play enough defense to cover the number. They allow over 80 points per game to opponents and rely on scoring enough themselves. The problem is that St. Thomas only allows 63.5 points per game. Something has to give.

I think that something is South Dakota keeping this game close. St. Thomas shoots over 53% in effective field goal percentage and against a porous defense that's going to play really well. Plus, they don't turn the ball over.

Dakota rates outside the Top 300, while St. Thomas sits right around 125th. The net efficiency difference (16.5 points) is staggering. St. Thomas has played three similar road games this season (teams ranked from 300-320) and won all three by an average of 16 points. Meanwhile, South Dakota hasn't come close to beating a Top 200 team (closest loss: 12 points).