4 College Basketball Bets For A Jam-Packed Saturday Including Tennessee-Alabama

It's March, so gambling on college basketball through the national championship will be a regular thing for me. Typically, the NBA is the only basketball I bet. That said, these Saturday college hoops slates are too good to sit out. Even for a non-college basketball fan like myself.  

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With that in mind, I have a robust college basketball betting card Saturday. This includes two Big East and West Coast Conference battles between ranked teams and the Tennessee-Alabama SEC showdown. 

UNDER 154.5 in No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles at No. 12 Creighton Bluejays, 2:30 p.m. ET

The last three Marquette-Creighton meetings have gone Under the total in four straight meetings and six of the past seven. Marquette beat Creighton 72-67 at home in their first meeting this season, Dec. 30th. However, the Golden Eagles could be without two guards that balled out in that game. 

Marquette senior PG Tyler Kolek is "questionable" with an oblique injury and sophomore SG Sean Jones is out for the season. Kolek was Ken Pom's MVP of the December Marquette-Creighton game. He averages a team-high 7.6 assists per game and 40.0% from deep. Jones scored 15 points off of the bench in just 13 minutes vs. Creighton in December.  

Marquette Golden Eagles PG Tyler Kolek drives to the basket on Creighton Bluejays SG Baylor Scheierman at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, styles make fights and this has the makings of a low-scoring affair. Neither team crashes the glass offensively nor gets to the foul line. Per Ken Pom, the Golden Eagles are 247th in offensive rebounding rate out of 362 D1 schools and the Bluejays are 261st. Marquette is 348th in FT/FGA rate and Creighton is 352nd. 

Finally, the Bluejays' opponents play at the 249th-fastest pace and the Golden Eagles' are 361st in pace, according to Ken Pom. Marquette is 5th in pace, but if Kolek misses Saturday, it might slow down the tempo. The Golden Eagles chuck a ton of threes, but Creighton is 3rd nationally in defensive 3-point attempt rate (3PAr). 

BET 1.1u on UNDER 154.5 in Marquette-Creighton (-110) at FanDuel. 

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies (-114), 5:30 p.m. ET 

Wake Forest stomped Virginia Tech 86-63 at home in their 1st meeting Dec. 30th. This makes it suspicious that Virginia Tech is a slight home favorite Saturday. Until you consider how terrible Wake Forest is on the road. Per college basketball analyst Erik Haslam, the Demon Deacons rank 338th in "away-home consistency". Their 3-point percentage falls from 42.6% at home to 30.0% on the road. 

The same point about home-away performance can be made about the Hokies. They are 1-9 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road with a -10.4 scoring margin. At home, Virginia Tech is 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS with a +16.2 scoring margin. The Hokies lose all "four factors" on the road but win them all in their home gym. 

Virginia Tech Hokies guard Tyler Nickel takes a layup on the Virginia Cavaliers at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg. (Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports)

Honestly, that's all I have for Wake Forest-Virginia Tech. I feel like gambling and the Demon Deacons are still a little overrated by the market after beating the Duke Blue Devils at home Feb. 24th. More importantly, the Hokies light it up at home. 

BET Virginia Tech's moneyline (-114) at FanDuel. The Hokies are playable up to a -135 moneyline. 

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No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers (+4) at No. 14 Alabama Crimson Tide, 8 p.m. ET

A couple of things make me nervous about liking Tennessee Saturday. First, the Volunteers allow opponents to chuck threes and Alabama is 13th nationally in 3-point percentage. Second, like most teams, Tennessee's efficiency dips on the road. Yet, UT checks enough boxes for me to play them in this match-up. 

Alabama has gotten spanked by all the good SEC teams it's played. The Volunteers rolled the Crimson Tide 91-71 in Knoxville Jan. 20th. Alabama lost by 22 points to Kentucky and 17 to Auburn too. Per Bart Torvik, 'Bama is 3-7 SU in Quad I games with the 32nd-best net efficiency. Granted, those were all road games. 

Tennessee Volunteers PG Zakai Zeigler drives past Alabama Crimson Tide PG Mark Sears at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. (Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, Tennessee has better ball movement, more togetherness, and tougher interior defense. According to Ken Pom, UT has more than double the minutes' continuity (55.8-26.2%), ranks 15th in assist rate ('Bama is 121st), and 4th in defensive 2-point shooting percentage ('Bama is 198th). 

BET Tennessee +4 (-110) at Caesars. The Volunteers are playable down to +2.5. 

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No. 23 Gonzaga Bulldogs at No. 17 Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5), 10 p.m. ET

The only reason Gonzaga's spread is so short is because of its brand name recognition. Per Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the action is on the Bulldogs as of 12:45 p.m. ET Saturday. Otherwise, Saint Mary's is the better team. The Gaels have more size, D1 experience, and minutes' continuity, per Ken Pom. They have the longest active winning streak in the country at 16 games. 

St. Mary's Gaels SG Aidan Mahaney attacks the basket vs. the Gonzaga Bulldogs at McCarthey Athletic Center. (James Snook-USA TODAY Sports)

Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga 64-62 on the road in their 1st meeting this season last month. The Gaels neutralize the Bulldogs' three biggest strengths: Interior scoring, fastbreak basketball, and offensive rebounding. Saint Mary's is 358th in pace, 1st in defensive rebounding rate, and 2nd in 2-point defensive shooting percentage, according to Ken Pom. 

BET Saint Mary's -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings. The Gaels are playable up to -3.5.

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