3 College Basketball 'Locks' For SEC, Big Ten, Big XII Games Tuesday

College basketball is buying my loyalty this season. I've been a bigger fan of the NBA my whole life. But, the NBA's "load management" era ruined my excitement and bankroll. Nevertheless, I'm cashing on 60% of my college basketball bets this year, which is far more important than my preference for the Association. Hence, for now, I'm a "college hoops guy". 

Unfortunately, I won't even be able to watch the games I'm betting Tuesday because I got roped into a double date with non-sports fans at some fancy Italian spot in Venice Beach. However, I'm commuting from Long Beach, so I can check my bets on my phone while parked on the 405 freeway. Anyway, let's dive into my betting card for Tuesday. 

College Hoops Best Bets: Feb. 18 

• Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 (-110) at Michigan State Spartans via FanDuel, risking 1.65 units (u).
• Texas A&M Aggies +2.5 (-110) at Mississippi State Bulldogs via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• Kansas Jayhawks +3.5 (-110) at BYU Cougars via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

#13 Purdue (+3.5) at #14 Michigan State, 7 p.m. ET

After digging further into their resume, I've concluded that the Spartans are overrated. Their best win is Illinois (twice), which is unranked in the AP Poll, but #20 in Ken Pom's rankings. The Boilermakers beat #4 Alabama and #20 Maryland. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Michigan 75-73 on the road Feb. 11 and #11 Wisconsin 94-84 at home Saturday. 

But, Wisconsin played an A+ offensive game in its victory over Purdue, which Michigan State isn't capable of because it's a bad 3-point shooting team. The Spartans are 353rd out of 363 D1 schools in 3-point percentage and 334th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr). Purdue's defense is mediocre, but Sparty's bad 3-point shooting makes defending them much easier. 

Purdue Boilermakers PG Braden Smith shoots a fadeaway over the Ohio State Buckeyes in a Big Ten college basketball game at Mackey Arena. (Photo credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images)

Also, the Boilermakers have more continuity. Four starters were on the team last season, including Ken Pom's fourth- (PG Braden Smith) and sixth-ranked (PF Trey Kaufman-Renn) players nationally. While MSU has two freshmen starting in its backcourt. Smith (4.7) and Kaufman-Renn (4.1) have more Win Shares than Michigan State's leader, SG Jase Richardson (2.7). 

Ultimately, the Spartans are overrated because Tom Izzo is the longest-tenured and most famous active head coach in college basketball. Purdue head coach Matt Painter has the better program right now. Michigan State has played the 45th-toughest schedule, per Ken Pom, and Purdue has the fifth-toughest schedule despite both being Big Ten teams. 

My buy-price is "Boilermakers pick 'em". 

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#7 Texas A&M (+2.5) at #21 Mississippi State, 7 p.m. ET

The college hoops gurus — Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam — project the Aggies will cover +2.5 and Haslam has them winning 71-69. Texas A&M is ranked 134th in momentum and 88th in consistency at Haslametrics.com, whereas Mississippi State is 353rd and 217th in those two metrics, respectively. 

Furthermore, the Aggies are sixth in defensive rating and the Bulldogs are 289th in 3-point percentage and 309th in free-throw shooting percentage at Ken Pom. Texas A&M packs the paint and forces opponents to shoot 3-pointers, ranking 355th in defensive 3PAr. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they suck at shooting. 

Texas A&M Aggies forward Pharrel Payne blocking Missouri Tigers guard Tony Perkins at Mizzou Arena. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

Plus, the Aggies have been much better in conference play. They have a +6.5 net rating in SEC games, per Ken Pom, and Mississippi State has a -2.0 net rating. Texas A&M is winning the "battle for possessions" in those games, averaging nearly seven more shots per game than its opponents. 

The Aggies have a much better resume with wins vs. #9 Texas Tech, #10 Purdue, and #15 Missouri. The Bulldogs' best wins are over #24 Ole Miss (twice), which is a rivalry game and a favorable matchup as I explained when I bet Mississippi State +3.5 over Ole Miss Saturday. Basically, this is a good spot to fade the Bulldogs after they just beat their in-state rival. 

My buy-price is "Aggies pick 'em". 

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#23 Kansas (+3.5) at BYU, 9 p.m. ET

This spread is too high for a Cougars team that hasn't beaten a ranked team this season and has the 346th-toughest non-conference schedule. The Jayhawks have wins vs. #14 Michigan State, #3 Duke, and #8 Iowa State. This spread says Kansas is a half-point better than BYU on a neutral floor. 

Yet, they both played TCU on the road. The Jayhawks were -7 favorites and beat TCU by 13 points while the Cougars were -2.5 favorites and lost to TCU by 4 points. I'm assuming there is too much "recency bias" in the betting market. The Cougars have won seven of their last 10 games and the Jayhawks are 5-5 over that span. 

Kansas Jayhawks C Hunter Dickinson dunking the ball vs. the Utah Utes at the Jon M. Huntsman Center. (Photo credit: Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images)

BYU lives and dies on 3-pointers (17th in offensive 3PAr) and Kansas is ninth in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The Cougars don't attack the paint and rank 279th in offensive free-throw attempt rate. The Jayhawks run their offense through 7-foot-1, two-time consensus All-American big Hunter Dickinson, who BYU doesn't have an answer for. 

My buy-price is "Jayhawks +1.5". 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.