3 College Basketball Bets For Power 5 Conference Games Saturday
After getting assaulted in the NBA Friday, I'm hoping to make my money back by betting college basketball on Saturday. For the record, I hate college basketball. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but it's inferior to professional basketball in every way. The players, coaches, rules, and officials suck. That said, even I can get into Saturday's college basketball slate.
There are a ton of intriguing conference games that'll help me prepare for the upcoming March Madness. This includes matchups pitting ranked teams in the Big XII (Houston-Baylor) and SEC (Alabama-Kentucky) and a sneaky good game between in-state ACC rivals (Duke-Wake Forest). If two of these three bets don't cash Saturday, I'm retiring from betting college hoops until March.
No. 2 Houston Cougars at No. 11 Baylor Bears (+2.5), noon ET
This is a "buy low" spot for Baylor after it lost at the BYU Cougars 78-71 Tuesday. But, the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah is a tough place to play. BYU has a raucous home crowd and the Marriott Center is at an elevation. Plus, the Bears hit 10.2% more threes at home compared to away games (42.1-31.9%).
Also, Houston is 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road. The Cougars rank 360th out of 362 colleges in "away-home consistency", per Erik Haslam. Essentially, their efficiency falls off a cliff in road games. Houston's 3-point percentage on the road is just 30.4%, and it averages 3.4 fewer free throws per game than its opponents.
Baylor Bears guard Miro Little goes to the hoop on Brigham Young Cougars forward Fousseyni Traore at the Marriott Center.
(Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, the Bears should get a bunch of freebies vs. the Cougars Saturday. Baylor is 24th in offensive FTA/FGA rate and Houston is 318th in defensive FTA/FGA rate, according to Ken Pom. Houston's defensive aggressiveness gets it into foul trouble and leaves outside shooters open.
The Cougars rank 310th in defensive 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and the Bears are 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Houston gambles defensively to make up for its lack of size and Baylor's veteran backcourt can exploit that aggression.
Baylor +2.5 (-110) at Caesars is my favorite bet on Saturday's college basketball card
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No. 8 Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 2 p.m. ET
This will be a quintessential Pros vs. Joe's game. Duke is one of the most popular college basketball programs and opened as slight underdogs at FanDuel. While Wake Forest is unranked and underrated. Ken Pom and Erik Haslam both rank the Demon Deacons 20th in net efficiency and Bart Torvik has them 24th.
Adding to that, Wake Forest is 14-0 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS) at home with a +20.1 scoring margin. Duke beat the Demon Deacons 77-69 Feb. 12th. The Blue Devils barely covered their -7 spread despite Wake Forest shooting just 23.1% from 3-point land and attempting 12 more free throws.
Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster controls with Wake Forest Deamon Deacons guard Parker Friedrichsen playing defense at Cameron Indoor Stadium in North Carolina.
(Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports)
The Demon Deacons shoot 42.0% from behind the arc in their home gym compared to only 34.5% on the road. Ultimately, it's hard to beat the same team twice in such a close span, teams shoot better at home, and they get home-cooking from the officials, especially in college hoops.
Wake Forest -2 (-115) at DraftKings is the best available price and my 2nd-favorite bet Saturday
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No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats, 4 p.m. ET
Kentucky lost at LSU 75-74 on Wednesday thanks to a buzzer-beating put-back. Alabama rallied back from a 1st-half deficit to beat the Florida Gators 98-93 at home Wednesday as -6 favorites. Initially, I wanted to bet Kentucky. The Crimson Tide got lucky to win their previous game and the Wildcats were coming off of a loss.
However, after digging into this matchup, Alabama feels like the right side. The Crimson Tide have more experience and minutes continuity, per Ken Pom. Kentucky's starting 5 has all freshmen or sophomores while Alabama has three seniors starting. More importantly, the Crimson Tide have a couple of basketball edges.
According to Ken Pom, 'Bama ranks 10th nationally in 3PAr and 14th in 3-point percentage. But, the Wildcats are 292nd in defensive 3PAr. The Crimson Tide are too good of a 3-point shooting team to allow them to just fire away. They have three shooters averaging at least 39.7% from deep and more than 5.0 3-point attempts per game.
Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears passes the ball vs. the LSU Tigers at Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
(Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Alabama gets to the charity stripe and Kentucky struggles to grab defensive boards. The Crimson Tide are 21st in offensive rebounding rate and the Wildcats are 241st in defensive rebounding rate. Alabama will likely get easy put-backs or 2nd-chance threes with how poorly Kentucky rebounds.
Finally, we are getting a good price on 'Bama. Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. The Crimson Tide has a +24.5 SRS and the Wildcats have a +17.2 SRS. If you give Kentucky a 4-point boost for home-court advantage, Alabama should still be road favorites.
Alabama +3 (-110) at Caesars is my 3rd-best bet Saturday in college hoops
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