Cole Rounding Into Form When Yankees Need Him Most

Guardians vs. Yankees, 1:05 ET

Last year, around the end of the season, I mentioned that some of the lines were getting out of control and you really needed to start focusing on underdogs that could win. I looked at today's matchups and felt almost identical to that. Most of the time, I live on games that are closer to coin flips by the book, but I see a clear edge. There are maybe three or four games that I would put into that category today but only one or two that I think have any sort of edge one way or another. Instead, I'm looking this game between the Guardians and Yankees and wondering if we can get a big of value on the underdog. Maybe there is a different way to play it, read on to find out! 

The Guardians are one of the better teams in baseball, but as my good buddy Geoff Clark would say about a team - they are probably frauds. They have one of the best records in the league, and they play in a division that could produce three different playoff teams, so they aren't getting an increase in wins as a result of playing bad teams over and over (though they do get to play a bunch of games against the White Sox and Tigers). They have a phenomenal record at home, but are still currently above .500 on the road as well. So why do I think they are frauds? It isn't that I am going to die on this hill, but when I look at this team, they feel like one you'd want to face in the playoffs. One that doesn't quite have a dominant starter that can shut down every opposing offense. The hitting on the team has been decent enough over the season, but at just .238, for the year, I think there is some reason to question if this offense is actually great. Jose Ramirez is excellent, no question there. Outside of him… that's where I start to question them. That's for the playoffs, for today, and really any given day, a team can win a game. They have Gavin Williams on the mound who is 2-5 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Not really ideal numbers going against an offense with hitters that are locked in. Williams has made three starts this month and two of them have been rather ugly. Against the Orioles, at home, he allowed six earned over four innings. And, against the Brewers on the road, he allowed five earned over four innings. Between those two starts, he threw arguably the best game of his season, going six innings against the Twins and allowing just one run. He hasn't ever faced the Yankees, but he has been better on the road than at home, so there could be reason for optimism here as he brings a 2.49 ERA with him in road starts.

Jul 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after scoring during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees look like they are heating up at the right time. Aaron Judge who has been great all season, continues to put the ball over the fence, adding another two homers to his total yesterday and putting him on pace for another 60-homer season. If he accomplishes the feat, Judge would be just the third player ever to have multiple 60-homer campaigns. The Yankees will be in a battle for the remainder of the season to try and capture the AL East crown. This actually could play in their favor as I feel like the teams that don't have much to play for as the playoffs get closer usually do worse in the playoffs than Wild Card teams and others that have to fight for a spot. Again, that's all down the line, but it will be fun to watch it play out. As for today, the Yankees do get their ace taking the ball as Gerrit Cole will toe the rubber. Cole has been good since his return in June, but not great. He has just three quality starts over his 10 outings, but he seems to be locked in right now as he has allowed just three earned runs over 17 innings this month. The Guardians have a fairly decent track record against Cole overall with 29 hits in 111 at-bats. Specifically, Ramirez and Josh Naylor have hit him well in the past.

This game feels like we should see some scoring. If Williams stumbles once again, he is likely to give up four or more runs. Cole has been outstanding this month, but there are some people who seem to have his number on the Guardians. If you have to pick a pitcher in this one that you can rely on it would obviously be Cole. However, I don't think he should be this big of a favorite, and the run line should offer value. The best play here is to take the under on the Guardians team total (3.5). Over their past 10 games, they've gone under the total in six games, with four of those unders coming in the past five games. Back the Guardians under 3.5. Picking Jose Ramirez to get over 1.5 total bases, or over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs is also a decent look, but he may be better as a daily fantasy play.

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