Cognizant Classic 2025 'Horses For The Course': Outrights, One-And-Done Pick
As a West Coast resident, I love the PGA TOUR's Florida Swing, starting this week with the Cognizant Classic 2025 in The Palm Beaches at PGA National. I'm an early riser and the first group tees off at 3:45 a.m. PT. So, I can sweat my golf bets all day, and when the Cognizant's first round ends, the NBA and college hoops begin. Thursday and Friday are glorious gambling days during the Florida Swing.
Despite losing -2.15 units (u) at the 2025 Mexico Open, I'm heading in the right direction. Or maybe I'm lying to myself to justify donking off money on the PGA TOUR (-20.58u this year). Regardless, two of my outright picks in Mexico, Alex Smalley and Nicolai Højgaard, who are in this week's field, finished T10 and eighth. Both had a legitimate chance of winning too since the final group played poorly.
RELATED: Brian Campbell Wins One For Short Knockers, Potgieter Is An Electric Factory, And Spieth The Florida Man
Rather than discussing the betting odds, tee times, event history, and the course, I embedded that stuff below to help you make Cognizant picks. As a reminder, always make placement bets at sportsbooks that pay out ties. Getting "dead-heated" is the worst part of gambling on golf. Without further ado, check out my one-and-done pick and outright bets to win at PGA National this week.
Cognizant Classic 2025 Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Davis Thompson (+4000)
He was the 54-hole leader at The Genesis Invitational last week with a -8 and still finished T12 with a -4, which is respectable for a course like Torrey Pines in a "signature event" field. Davis played well at The Genesis last week because he finally hit his irons well.
Thompson lost strokes on Approach (APP) in his first five starts this year but was +1.0 Strokes Gained (SG): APP at Torrey Pines. Yet, Thompson has been flushing it with his driver this season and chipping his a** off. He is 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and 12th in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) this year.
In back-to-back weeks, Thompson has gained strokes OTT and ARG at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Genesis, played on equally difficult courses, in different ways. The 25-year-old gained nearly five strokes ARG at the Cognizant last year.
Thompson was trending similarly before his first career win on the PGA TOUR: The 2024 John Deere Classic. He’s placed higher in three straight starts this season: T58 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, T36 in Phoenix, and T12 at The Genesis.
Last year, Thompson finished T9 at the 2024 U.S. Open and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before winning the John Deere. Maybe next week is when Thompson wins, and I’m jumping the gun a bit. However, I just have a good feeling about him this week.
BET 0.5u on Davis Thompson (+4000) to profit 20u
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Jordan Spieth (+4500)
When asked why he is making his Cognizant debut this year, Spieth said:
Frankly, that’s all I needed to see to bet Spieth at these odds. He is priced in a tier with guys who haven’t won sh*t like Ben Griffin, Cameron Young, and Byeong Hun An. Granted, Spieth had wrist surgery this offseason and has only three starts in 2025: Pebble Beach (T69), Phoenix Open (T4), and The Genesis (missed cut).
Yet, Spieth’s ceiling is higher than everyone else’s in this field. Those results are solid considering the AT&T was Spieth’s first start after surgery, and he had a great final round at Pebble Beach. That carried into Phoenix the week after when Spieth looked like his old self. The 2025 Genesis was at Torrey Pines, one of the hardest and longest courses on TOUR.
Essentially, Torrey Pines isn’t a good course for Spieth’s game, PGA National is, even though this is his first time playing here. The three most recent winners of this event — Austin Eckroat (2024), Sepp Straka (2022), and Sungjae Im (2019) — who played at The Genesis last week, also missed the cut. Hence, I’m throwing out these results.
Spieth played in the other three Florida Swing events last year. Here are his prices for those tournaments, per GolfOdds.com: +2000 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, +2500 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and +1800 at the Valspar Championship. The Arnold Palmer and PLAYERS are "signature events" and Spieth won the Valspar in 2015 and has two other top-10 finishes.
BET 0.44u on Jordan Spieth (+4500) to profit 20u
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Nicolai Højgaard (+6000)
The Dane’s chipping and driving accuracy are sketchy. Højgaard is 90th in SG: ARG on the PGA TOUR this season and 144th in driving accuracy. Nevertheless, five of the eight golfers that finished T4 or better at last year's Cognizant Classic lost strokes ARG, including the winner, Eckroat.
On top of that, Højgaard is one of the most powerful ball-strikers in the world, which helps at PGA National. He doesn’t have to worry about his distance OTT when clubbing down on the forced layups and doglegs. Other bombers have won at PGA National, such as Keith Mitchell (2019), Justin Thomas (2018), and Rory McIlroy (2012).
More importantly, Nicolai was third in SG: APP and third in SG: Tee-to-Green at the 2025 Mexico Open last week. Lastly, there are a lot of APP shots from 175-200 yards out at PGA National, which is Højgaard’s "sweet spot". He led the TOUR in proximity to the hole on APP shots from that range last season.
BET 0.33u on Nicolai Højgaard (+6000) to profit 20u
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Victor Perez (+15000)
The Frenchman was T16 at the 2024 Cognizant Classic while gaining strokes in the four major golf stats: OTT, APP, ARG, and Putting. Bermudagrass greens are his best putting surface. Plus, PGA National has "Le Golf Nationa vibes", which is the course used for the 2024 Paris Summer Olympic Golf Tournament.
Le Golf National is another Par-71 course with 10 water danger holes. Perez was fourth in the Paris Summer Olympics, which is impressive considering he was one of the lower-ranked players in that field and had the pressure of playing a home game for his country.
Victor Perez hits from the bunker during Round 3 of the 2025 Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images)
Because of the volatility of PGA National, there have been several 100-to-1 or higher longshots win this tournament, such as Eckroat (+11000), Straka (+12500), Mitchell (+30000), and Russell Henley (+30000) in 2014. Perez has three wins on the DP World Tour, so perhaps he is the "random dart" that hits in the 2025 Cognizant.
BET 0.13u on Victor Perez (+15000) to profit 20u
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Matteo Manassero (+20000)
Somehow, this Italian dude earned his full-time PGA TOUR card by finishing in the top 10 of the DP World Tour standings last year even though he is one of the worst drivers in golf. Manassero was 151st in SG: OTT on the DP World Tour last season. That said, you don’t need to be a bomber to win at PGA National, you just need to stay out of the water.
Don’t get me wrong, it obviously, helps, and I put driving stats in my models. But, I’m overlooking Manassero’s bad driving stats because he was sixth in SG: APP on the DP World Tour last year and seventh in SG: ARG. He’s gained strokes on APP and ARG in his first three PGA TOUR starts this season.
He has true "win equity" with eight international victories and five on the DP World Tour, most recently the 2024 Jonsson Workwear Open. Manassero played in the 2013-14 then-"The Honda Classic", finishing T29 and T12. He gained strokes on APP, ARG, and Putting, and was more accurate OTT than the field in both starts at PGA National.
BET 0.1u on Matteo Manassero (+20000) to profit 20u
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Cognizant Classic 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Davis Thompson
After the Mexico Open, my "Race to the Mayo Cup 2025" balance is $915,604, tying me for 2,476th out of 4,500 entries, which isn't good, but there are still four majors and six additional "signature events" left on the PGA TOUR schedule, so hope is not lost.
Thompson is my pick here because he should have less ownership than former Cognizant winners like Sungjae, Straka, or Henley, and Florida Man, Billy Horschel, or pre-tournament betting favorite, Shane Lowry. Clearly, zagging at the Cognizant isn't a next-level game theory, but going contrarian is usually smart in any picks contest.
Previous Picks
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0)
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714)
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800)
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.