Close Sweet 16 Round With A Total Play Between Creighton And Tennessee

Creighton vs. Tennessee, 10:00 ET

We've reached the end of the road for the Sweet 16 as this is the last game before the Elite Eight becomes fully set. There are only a few games left in college basketball for this season, and I am hopeful that this ends positively for us. In this game, we have two teams that are playing good basketball and this could be one of the more exciting games in this round. Tonight, we are going to lock in a play as the #3 Creighton Bluejays take on the #2 Tennessee Volunteers with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. 

Creighton comes into this game off of one of the tougher games of the tournament. In the Big East Conference Tournament, they lost the opening game to Providence. They lost that game 78-73, and no disrespect to Providence, but Creighton was a better team before that game started. Creighton and Providence shot very similarly in that game, but they had six more turnovers and that likely was the difference in the game. In the first game of the NCAA Tournament, they were able to handle Akron with ease, winning by 17. No surprise, but Ryan Kalkbrenner paced the way with their scoring as he has done for most of the season. In the second game, against Oregon, it was not as easy to win. It took two overtimes, and they ended up winning by 13, but they were against the ropes. What I think was interesting is that Creighton was able to get four guys into double figures with their scoring. They just couldn't stop two Oregon players who combined to put in 60 of their 73 points. In this game, Creighton will have the edge with Kalkbrenner, but their backcourt will need to figure out a way to be more effective defensively. 

Feb 20, 2024; Omaha, Nebraska, USA; Creighton Bluejays center Ryan Kalkbrenner (11) drives against Connecticut Huskies forward Samson Johnson (35) in the first half at CHI Health Center Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

If Creighton has the defense to stop one really strong offensive player, they are going to struggle to win against a Tennessee team that has Dalton Knecht on the roster. Knecht already has racked up 41 points in the two games for Tennessee. In their first game, against St. Peter's, they coasted to an 83-49 win. They played good enough defense and their offense was sharp, but this was not really a fair fight. In the next game against Texas it was much more of a competition as they were only able to escape with a 62-58 victory. Once again their defense was sharp in this game as they held Texas to just 19 points in the first half of the game. Texas shot 8-for-17 in the first half so their percentage was high enough, but they couldn't get enough going and went into the locker room down by nine. If anything is encouraging for Tennessee in this game it is that they only hit three three-pointers in this game. You read that correctly, the Volunteers went 3-for-25 from deep and couldn't get much going there. They did win the rebounding battle, hit more free throws, and won the turnover margin by five. It will be hard for them to match up with the height of Creighton, but the guards of Tennessee could increase the pace of this game and neutralize him a bit. 

If I am looking at this game objectively, I think Creighton struggles to stop Knecht, and Tennessee struggles to stop Kalkbrenner. That means that I'm guessing we get a ton of points in this game. I expect the pace to be higher than we would normally get against two closely matched squads. I do think Tennessee escapes and covers, but I feel more confident that the teams will go over the 143.5 total. Back the over and hope defense is optional in this game. 

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