Climbing Out Of An NBA Betting Hole With 3 Favorites Saturday
"Locks" my a**. The NBA crushed me Friday and I'm all butt-hurt about it. But, here's what I'm not going to do. I'm not going to whine and stop betting the NBA. That's insane. Instead, I'll fire out of the hole with the expectation of a better future.
Duh.
NBA Saturday Best Bets
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5), 7 p.m. ET
This is a sketchy line and I’m taking the bait. The Nets lost 129-128 as -9.5 home favorites against the Charlotte Hornets sans LaMelo Ball. Orlando is on a 9-game winning streak (8-1 vs. the spread) with wins over the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets.
However, the Magic’s other seven wins during this streak aren’t all that impressive. First of all, their last six games have been at home. Orlando scores 121.0 points per game (PPG) at home but just 106.6 PPG on the road.
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The 1st two games in the Magic’s active win streak were at the Chicago Bulls, one of the worst teams in the East. Two of Orlando’s previous three wins were against the god-awful Washington Wizards and the other was the Hornets, which was the game Ball got hurt during.
DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and that website says the Magic have a +1.6 net rating (11th) and the Nets have a +0.1 net rating (17th). Based on statistical profiles, these teams are pretty similar.
Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges drives to the basket vs. Orlando Magic PF Paolo Banchero at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, I’d argue this is a buy-low point for the Nets after losing to the Hornets on Thursday. They spanked the Magic 124-104 at home November 14th. Brooklyn hit 48.7% of its 3-pointers in that game (19-of-39) and out-scored Orlando in three of the four quarters.
Finally, I cannot ignore the public NBA betting splits and line movement. The Nets are a pricey -2.5 favorite at the sharp sportsbooks Betcris and Bookmaker after opening as -1.5 favorites.
This is despite more than 75% of the bets being on the Magic as of 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday morning, per Pregame.com. Yet, only a slight majority of the cash is on Orlando so the oddsmakers are reacting to whoever is betting on Brooklyn.
My prediction: Nets 117, Magic 111
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton is "questionable" to play and Heat big Bam Adebayo is out with a hip injury. The possible loss of Haliburton is a bigger deal for Indiana than Bam is for Miami.
This is the 2nd of a Pacers-Heat back-to-back and Miami won the 1st 142-132 Thursday. Haliburton scored a game-high 44 points and threw 10 assists. Bam only scored 7 points on 33.3% shooting and left hurt after 12:28 of action.
Furthermore, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Haliburton has a +14.6 on/off net rating in non-garbage time and Adebayo is -7.5. I'll admit there's some noise in those stats because the Heat are clearly better with Bam on the floor.
However, by the eye-ball test, Indiana's offense falls off a cliff without Haliburton. While Miami has enough veterans (Jimmy Butler, PG Kyle Lowry, PF Kevin Love, etc.) to hold it down without Adebayo.
Heat wing Jimmy Butler reacts after a basket vs. the Indiana Pacers at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
The Heat beat the Pacers Thursday by getting to the charity stripe. Miami had more than double the FT/FGA rate of Indiana (44.2-21.4%). Butler hit 18-of-20 free throws himself the other night.
This is a strength-on-weakness edge for the Heat. They are 8th in offensive free-throw rate (FTr), according to CTG. The Pacers are dead-last in defensive FTr and 22nd offensively.
Lastly, the South Beach nightlife benefits the Heat greatly too. I'm sure the Pacers didn't sit in their hotel rooms watching game-film Friday in Miami. Since last season, the Heat are 7-3 vs. the spread in home games on Saturdays.
My prediction: Heat 121, Pacers 113
Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) at Dallas Mavericks, 9 p.m. ET tip-off
The Mavericks were one of my three losing picks Friday when the Grizzlies clubbed them, 108-94. Am I still made about that? Yes. Is that clouding my judgment for this game? Kind of, to be honest.
Granted, Dallas was missing Luka Doncic Friday but Memphis sucks. Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane was the only starter that scored more than six points. The Mavericks lost Friday more than Memphis won.
But, bitterness aside, this is more of bet ON the Thunder. They have the 2nd-best non-garbage time net rating (+10.7) over the past two weeks and best spread differential in the NBA (+11.1), according to CTG.
Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic posts up Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Luka may miss Saturday as well and, if Doncic doesn't play, Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) becomes the best player on the floor. SGA is averaging 30.6 PPG on 54.1% shooting.
Moreover, as of 1 p.m. ET Saturday, Dallas hasn't released an injury report. But, Mavs head coach Jason Kidd told reporters that Kyrie Irving might not play Saturday. Dallas's defense cannot stop a nosebleed so it'll need Kyrie and Luka's offense.
The Thunder were 2-1 straight up (SU) and 3-0 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavericks last season. This OKC team is a lot better than last year's. The Thunder are 2-1 SU and ATS as road favorites with a +8.3 spread differential and I trust them to cover in Dallas Saturday.