Bet Orlando Magic In Their 'Revenge Game' Vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tuesday
A rematch from the first round of last year's playoffs starts an NBA on TNT doubleheader Tuesday when the Orlando Magic (29-30) host the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers (47-10) at Kia Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. The Cavs squeaked past the Magic last season with a 4-3 win in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference playoff series.
Both teams have played three games since the NBA All-Star Break. Cleveland is 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a 37-point win over the New York Knicks and a victory vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who are second in the Western Conference. Orlando is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, and its only loss was by one point to Memphis.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic Odds (FanDuel)
- Moneyline: Cleveland (-319) | Orlando (+260)
- Spread: Cavaliers -8 (-110) | MAGIC +8 (-110)
- Total — 220 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
As -7 home favorites, the Cavaliers beat the Magic 120-109 in their first meeting this season on November 1. However, Orlando's best player, All-Star Paolo Banchero, missed that game with an injury. Banchero led his team in scoring (27.0 points) and rebounding (8.6) in the Cavaliers-Magic's seven-game first-round playoff series.
Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero shoots a fadeaway over the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game 6 in the first round of the 2024 NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at Kia Center. (Photo Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
Granted, the Cavs are much better this season under first-year coach Kenny Atkinson, while Banchero has missed 34 games, and he is shooting worse from everywhere on the court when he has played. But, I'm still a huge fan of Banchero's game, and he'll start playing like an All-NBA guy by the time the playoffs begin.
Furthermore, this is a revenge game for Orlando, which hosts the Cavaliers for the first time since losing Game 7 in Cleveland last postseason. The home team won all seven games in that series and the Magic are a different team in Orlando. They are 18-11 at home with a +3.2 scoring margin compared to 11-19 on the road with a 5.0 scoring margin.
Related, VIDEO: Cavaliers Fan Drains Incredible 10K Halfcourt Shot
The Cavs have won seven straight games and their last loss in the last 12 games was to the NBA champion Boston Celtics before the All-Star break. Cleveland visits Boston Friday in what's a revenge game for the Cavaliers. I.e., the Magic should be more motivated Tuesday and motivation is the most important thing for betting regular-season NBA games nowadays.
Also, Cavs All-Star PG Darius Garland is questionable and could miss a second consecutive game Tuesday. Garland's absence would be huge since he is Cleveland's only true point guard and Orlando is second in defensive rating. Even though the Cavaliers are 19.0 games ahead in the standings, they aren't that much better than the Magic without Garland.
Regardless if Garland plays or not, I'm looking to fade the line movement in the NBA regular season due to my two-year track record of losing despite getting "closing line value" (CLV). If you look at my X post embedded below, I've gotten +1.1% CLV across 236 NBA bets this season. Yet, my return on investment is -6.2%, so apparently CLV doesn't matter.
Lastly, FanDuel opened the Cavaliers as -6 favorites, and it's up to -8 based on no new information. Per Pregame.com, nearly 85% of the betting action is on Cleveland at the time of writing. Ultimately, this is a hunch since the stats support a bet on the Cavs, but this will be a one- or two-possession game in Orlando.
Projection: Cavaliers 112, Magic 107
- For the record, I'm risking 1.1 units (u) on Orlando +8 (-110) to profit 1u at FanDuel, which has the best price for the Magic.
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