Clay Travis' NFL Six Pack: All The Hot Picks For A Freezing Cold Super Wild Card Weekend
We went 5-2 in the final week of the NFL regular season running our OutKick Six Pack season record to 64-59.
That's a 52 percent winning percentage, which hopefully we can bump up to north of 52.3 percent -- what you need to win to overcome the vig -- and put us fully in the black for the year in the NFL.
Like most of you, I will be sitting in the warm comfort of my home watching football all weekend and to make the games even more fun, I've got eight winners for you.
Full disclosure, we initially gave these picks out on Wednesday with Kelly Stewart. Most of the lines have stayed the same, but the Steelers-Buffalo total has collapsed, hopefully you jumped on it early because if you did you've got a huge hedge opportunity there.
With that in mind, let's get everyone rich with eight winners.
Browns -2.5 At Texans
CLEVELAND - Joe Flacco of the Cleveland Browns throws a pass during the first half against the New York Jets at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 28, 2023. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
I like the Browns outright here.
I love the way Joe Flacco has been playing -- who would have expected that opinion before the season started? -- and I like a rested Browns defense to give CJ Stroud and the Texans fits. Remember, this Browns defense has, at times, been as good as any defense in the NFL.
Historically Flacco has been at his best in the playoffs -- 11-4 in his playoff career against the number -- and as excited as the Texans have been about their rookie quarterback and their rookie head coach -- and they should be thrilled with both -- I like the Browns to win on the road by three or more and advance to the divisional round.
Dolphins +4.5 At Chiefs
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. - Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins runs out of the tunnel during introductions prior to a game against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on December 17, 2023. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
I'm admittedly nervous about this pick.
Both teams have disappointed down the stretch, it's going to be a -30 windchill and there's a part of me that thinks the Chiefs could just blow out the warm-weather Dolphins.
But then I come back to the fact that the Chiefs haven't really blown out anyone down the stretch and that if we consider the ceiling of each team this year, the Dolphins at their best have been much better than the Chiefs at their best.
So how can I pass up on the Dolphins as the underdog, especially when no one expects them to win this game?
So give me Tua and company here to cover on the frozen Kansas City tundra.
Steelers At Bills -10 And The Under
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. - Dawson Knox of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on January 7. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
The under is plummeting here as this is expected to essentially be a blizzard game.
So I hope you took the under when Kelly and I gave it out on Wednesday. If you did, you've got a 10-point hedge.
I still feel like this game is super low scoring 17-6, 21-6, something in that area and that the Bills win and cover.
Packers At Cowboys -7
ARLINGTON, Tex. - CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys catches a touchdown pass while defended by Jartavius Martin of the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium on November 23, 2023. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Call me a sucker, but I think the Cowboys win by double digits against the Packers down in Dallas.
Sure, the history of Packers-Cowboys hasn't been great in the playoffs, but Jordan Love isn't Aaron Rodgers and Dak and Lamb are playing at an elite level right now. Dare I even say that Dak's performance has been underrated this year?
Dallas wins by double digits giving you a nice cover here and, guess what, Lamb's gonna catch it!
Rams At Lions, The Over 51
DETROIT - Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on January 7. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
This is a tough matchup for the Lions in their first-ever home playoff game at Ford Field.
Matthew Stafford, who has played a ton of games in Detroit as their starter, and this young Rams team have been playing really well late in the season and the Lions have been a bit of an enigma. So I don't love the Lions as a field goal favorite.
But I do love the over here.
In a weekend that may feature a bevy of defensive battles, give me a legit shootout in the dome as Jared Goff chases revenge over being kicked to the curb by the Rams. The over's the play.
Eagles At Bucs +3, And The Under 43.5
GREEN BAY, Wis. - Wide Receiver Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hands the football to a fan following a touchdown during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
I think the Bucs win as the home underdog here in a low scoring, defensive minded affair.
Look, the wheels have come off the Eagles, they're 1-5 in the past six weeks and even though the Bucs have been wobbly all year too, I like Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans to make a big play late that pushes the Bucs into the divisional round of the playoffs.
But I'll take the +3 home underdog just to be safe.
And the under for a double win.
...
There you have it, boys and girls, I've got eight winners for you this weekend in the Outkick Six Pack.
I hope all of you have fabulous gambling weekends and enjoy the games.
And Kelly and I will be back on Wednesday breaking down the divisional round games.
See you guys then.