Clay Travis' College Football Gambling Picks, Week 6: Back Bama, Tennessee, Oregon To Cover Big Numbers
What a game, what a weekend in Tuscaloosa.
We had an incredible time at Georgia-Alabama over the weekend, and we also got back on the winning track, going 8-6 -- even with a brutal double beat on Oklahoma-Auburn -- to run our season record to 31-38.
Yes, we still have some ground to make up, but we're cutting into the early season deficit we built for ourselves.
Fortunately, we still have a ton of weeks to go because we are only in week 6, and I have 13 winners for all of you.
So climb aboard the 13-0 express and let's get rich, kids.
LAS VEGAS - Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams (6), wide receiver Ricky White III (11), and offensive lineman Jalen St. John (74) of the UNLV Rebels celebrate after a touchdown pass by Williams to White during a Mountain West Conference game between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the UNLV Rebels on September 28, 2024 at Allegiant Stadium. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Syracuse at UNLV -6.5
With all the drama surrounding UNLV at the quarterback position regarding NIL, the Running Rebels have just been playing great football.
Now they get an opportunity to notch a second power five conference win at home on a Friday night in Vegas and I think they pull it off.
Give me UNLV by double digits.
CORVALLIS, Ore. - Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel rolls out and looks down field during a college football game between the Oregon State Beavers and Oregon Ducks on September 14, 2024, at Reser Stadium. (Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Michigan State at Oregon -24
Slowly, but surely, the Oregon Ducks are fixing what ailed them early in the season.
After a slow start to the season, the Ducks have blown out Oregon State and handled UCLA with ease, now a Michigan State team without much offensive firepower travels cross country for a night game in Eugene.
Oh, and Michigan State has to travel across the country a week after playing Ohio State, still without having a bye on the season, and take on Oregon?
Tough.
Which is why my only prediction is Spartan pain, Oregon for the cover on a big number.
ARLINGTON, Texas. - Texas A&M Aggies running back Le'Veon Moss (8) carries the ball during the Southwest Classic game between Arkansas and Texas A&M on September 28. 2024 at AT&T Stadium. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Missouri at Texas A&M -1.5 and the under 48.5
The Aggies are a quiet 4-1 in Mike Elko's first year, meanwhile Missouri is 4-0, but hasn't looked that great in its past two games.
In front of a loud College Station crowd eager for a Top 10 win, I think this Aggie defense keeps the score low and the A&M offense finds just enough firepower to notch a win.
20-17 Aggies, which is why, tap the veins, boys and girls, my blood bank guarantee for the week is a double win special on the under and the cover.
Pasadena, Calif. - The UCLA Bruins take on the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl, Sept. 28, 2024. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images).
UCLA +27.5 at Penn State
Yes, UCLA isn't very good, but in back-to-back games against LSU and Oregon, two very good offenses, the Bruins defense has been good enough to keep the team in each game.
The Penn State defense is solid, but I'm not sure the offense is elite.
That means the Nittany Lions will have trouble covering a four touchdown line, even with this game kicking off early in the morning for the Bruins players.
COLUMBIA, S.C. - DQ Smith of the South Carolina Gamecocks reacts after a play against the LSU Tigers at Williams-Brice Stadium on September 14, 2024. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)
Ole Miss at South Carolina +9.5
Ole Miss was upset last week by Kentucky, and now the Rebels have to walk into a hornet's nest in Columbia to play against a team that crushed Kentucky at Kentucky.
And you're telling me the Gamecocks have to lose by double digits for me to lose this bet?
I just think this line isn't giving South Carolina's home field enough respect.
Remember, the Gamecocks are nearly undefeated themselves, having narrowly lost at home to LSU earlier in the season.
Toss in the fact that Ole Miss is playing for a sixth straight week and South Carolina will be rested off a bye and I like the Gamecocks even more in this one.
The Cocks crowing to a cover.
AUBURN, Ala. - Tight end Rivaldo Fairweather of the Auburn Tigers looks to catch a pass in front of defensive back Makari Vickers of the Oklahoma Sooners during the second half of play at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 28, 2024. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
Auburn +24.5 at Georgia
I understand I will be the only person in America betting on Auburn this weekend.
Even Auburn fans are reading this right now thinking, "Clay has lost his damn mind."
But here's my thought process -- Auburn's defense hasn't cost them a game yet. If the Tigers can just keep it to two turnovers or less in Athens, they should be able to move the football, drain the clock, and stay within three touchdowns against a physically beaten up Georgia team.
So, gulp, give me the Tigers on the road to cover.
Rutgers at Nebraska, the under 41.5
Rutgers is undefeated and Nebraska only has one loss.
But neither of these teams have an offense.
Which means the under is a lock.
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. - Deontae Lawson #0 of the Alabama Crimson Tide celebrates after his sack against the Georgia Bulldogs during the third quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 28, 2024. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Alabama -23 at Vanderbilt
This line stinks.
I'm just going to say it.
How is Alabama not a bigger favorite here? Well, Vandy could easily be 4-0 and is coming off a bye week, so I suppose that's the logic.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide is coming off a huge, physical game against Georgia and will be playing in front of the smallest crowd they'll see on the season. It has let down written all over it.
But here's the problem, Vandy doesn't have anyone who can match up against Jalen Milroe. And the talent differential on the field is going to be massive. At some point, that reveals itself.
Give me the Tide to cover late in Nashville.
CLEMSON, S.C. - Ronan Hanafin #16 of the Clemson Tigers enters the field before the first half of a football game against the Stanford Cardinal at Memorial Stadium on September 28, 2024. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
Clemson -14 at Florida State
When a team is floundering, it doesn't typically get healthy against a hungry team with equal or better talent.
Last year, Clemson lost a tough one at home to FSU, this year the Tigers are out for revenge against a 1-4 Seminoles team that has shown no signs of life pretty much all season.
Clemson wins by 20 or more and covers a big number on the road.
NORMAN, Okla. - Tennessee Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava looks for an open receiver during a game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Tennessee Volunteers at Gaylord Memorial Stadium on September 21, 2024. (Photo by David Stacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas
In the past three games, Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has gone 46-94 passing, that's an under 50 percent completion percentage.
Put simply, Green is just missing too many throws.
Yes, I know he's a mobile quarterback, but if he's completed that low of a percentage and now he's coming up against the best defense he's seen all season, what does that suggest? Not good results.
Meanwhile, Tennessee has had two weeks since its big road win against Oklahoma and should be energized and prepared to play a third road/neutral game at night.
If Tennessee didn't have the bye, I'd be more nervous, but if Nico plays well, the Vols win by 28+, if he just avoids turnovers, they win by 14+.
Ultimately, as good as Bobby Petrino is at scheming up plays, I just think this Tennessee defense isn't going to give up many points and the rushing attack will have eventual success here.
Give me the Vols by 20+ in Fayetteville.
Michigan at Washington, the under 41.5
Neither team can score because neither team has elite offensive talent.
You don't have to watch, but the under is hitting.
UCF at Florida, the over 61.5
The Gators will score and I think Central Florida will bounce back from an awful home performance against Colorado to put up some points in Gainesville.
By the way, how about Billy Napier being a home underdog in year three to UCF?
Yikes.
Don't worry about who will win, just take the over and ride it to the win.
...
There you have it, boys and girls, we're going 13-0.
As always #respectthepicks and I'll see you guys breaking down all these games on Thursday on "The Fade" with Kelly Stewart.