Clay Travis' College Football Picks For Week 14: Playoffs, Pride On The Line

First, happy Thanksgiving to all of you and we are certainly thankful to y'all for making 2024 such a fantastic year for Outkick.

So I hope all of you are having great weeks with your friends and family and ready to win for a third straight week of college football gambling.

Because, thankfully, we have finally managed to string a couple of winning weeks together and begun to reverse the betting curse that afflicted us for September and October as we dug a big hole.

We went 9-6 last week to run our season record to 74-90.

That, to be fair, is still not good at all, but at least we're on the comeback trail. Remember, you've got to always #respectthepicks.  

Especially these 12 Thanksgiving winners I'm about to share below.

Oklahoma State at Colorado, the over 65.5

Last week we saw the Colorado defense collapse, and we've been witnessing the Oklahoma State defense collapse all year.

Remember back when the Cowboys were in the top 25?

Colorado head coach Deion Sanders.  (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

It feels like forever ago.

And how about those Colorado playoff dreams? Those sure did potentially vanish in a hurry with the collapse at Kansas.

Instead of worrying about either team covering, let's just enjoy the points. The over's the play here.

Oregon State +20.5 at Boise State

Boise State isn't just playing to make the playoff, they're angling for a playoff bye.

Which is wild because it reflects just how much of a collapse we've seen from the Big 12.

That means all the pressure is on Boise State.

And, as you saw last week and as you'll see again this week, I love betting on the team with no pressure.

Especially as big underdogs.

Give me the Beavers to cover and send a shiver down the spine of Boise State fans everywhere with a close game in the fourth quarter.

Georgia Tech +19.5 at Georgia

Last week, Georgia Tech won a miraculous-esque late victory against N.C. State.

Now they get Georgia, who has been an enigma all season, after the Bulldogs just clinched a spot in Atlanta for the SEC title game.

Carson Beck and Dylan Fairchild of the Georgia Bulldogs. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

How will the Bulldogs play with zero pressure against a team they've beaten for six straight years?

No one knows, but I'm betting they'll relax a bit.  

Which is why I think the Yellow Jackets keep it within two touchdowns, giving us a cover.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, the under 48.5

Here's the deal, Tennessee fans are going to take over Vandy's stadium.

And make it a default home game.

But even with a favorable crowd for Tennessee, this is still Vandy's Super Bowl. As much fun as beating number one Alabama was for the Commodores, their fans would take much greater joy, I really do believe this, in completely and totally ruining Tennessee's season by knocking the Volunteers out of the playoff.

Yes, the line is large – Vols -11.5 – but I feel like with the pressure and significance of this game, the Volunteer defense is going to set the pace, meaning Vandy's not scoring many points.

Quarterback Diego Pavia of the Vanderbilt Commodores. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Which is why I love the under here more than anything.

Vandy will score 17 or less against this Vol defense, but I have no idea what to expect from Tennessee's offense. But I don't think Tennessee comes out and puts up a bevy of points because they haven't really done that to anyone all SEC season. Sure, Tennessee could win big, but the score will be something like 28-6 if that happens, not 45-28.  

The Vols win, but the under's the play here.

South Carolina +2.5 at Clemson and the under 49.5

Both of these teams, left for dead back in September, have continued to improve all season long and now each team has an outside shot at the playoff.

Yes, several upsets have to happen, but not inconceivable upsets, especially for Clemson.

So what happens?

Defenses dominate in a massive rivalry game, leaving the Gamecocks crowing at Clemson, with a 24-21 late victory and the under hitting.  

Michigan +21 at Ohio State

This bet just boils down to one question: does Michigan have pride or not?

If the Wolverines do, then they aren't going to get blown out by Ohio State.

If they don't, a blowout's coming.

I'm betting Michigan has some pride, especially against a number this big.

The Wolverines don't win, but they keep the beatdown under twenty, giving all of us a cover in the big game.

Notre Dame at USC +7.5

Speaking of pride, do the Trojans have any?

It has been a really disappointing season for the Trojans.

And, sure, Notre Dame's had a much better season than USC, but I don't believe they are substantially more talented.

The Notre Dame mascot leads the team on the. (Photo by Edward Diller/Getty Images)

Coming off a big win over UCLA, I think Lincoln Riley's USC team will play loose and with nothing to lose.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, needs a win to guarantee their spot in the playoff and a home football game in late December in South Bend.

Lose and I'm not sure 10-2 is good enough to make the playoff.

USC doesn't just cover, they have a shot to win it late.

Auburn +11.5 at Alabama

There's no way to sugarcoat it, year one for Kalen DeBoer has been bad.

Three SEC losses is unacceptable to Alabama fans.

But you know what would take a bad season and turn it into a catastrophic one?

Losing at home to a mediocre, at best, Auburn team.

I don't think it will happen, but if it does Kalen DeBoer is going to enter the 2025 season on a Mike Shula style hot seat.

Plus, there's no real difficulty here, stop Jalen Milroe from running on you and the Tide is highly beatable. I'm betting Auburn can manage that.  

Meaning you'd better get the pepto ready, Bama fans, because Hugh Freeze is keeping it a one score game.

War Eagle...covers.

Miami at Syracuse +10.5

If Miami wins this football game, the Hurricanes aren't just advancing to the ACC title game, they're probably punching their ticket to the playoff too.

But if Miami loses, look out, the Hurricanes are out of the ACC title game and not making the playoff either.

That's a monster swing.

A Miami Hurricanes player ran over a Georgia Tech fan after the upset loss. Watch a video of the moment. (Credit: Getty Images)

Meanwhile Syracuse should have a huge home crowd advantage and nothing to lose. The Orange are already 8-3 and they've won two games in a row.

Look out, the Orange covers and may well end two Miami title chances, both conference and national.  

Arkansas at Missouri, the over 54.5

The one thing I'm confident about here is there will be many points scored, each team will go for 24 or more.

Neither team had the season they wanted, but you can rest assured that if Mizzou gets to 9-3 Eli Drinkwitz will act like he just won the national title.

And if Arkansas wins then Razorback fans will take some measure of solace from a disappointing eason that peaked with a Tennessee upset back in early October.

Instead of worrying about the winner, just enjoy the points raining down and take the over.  

Texas at Texas A&M +6

Speaking of stakes, this is the biggest SEC game I can remember for a long time for both teams, but especially for Texas A&M.

If Texas A&M wins, the Aggies head to Atlanta for the first time to play Georgia for the SEC title and a first round playoff bye.

But if they lose, they finish 8-4 and are headed to a bowl game they have no interest in playing in a month.

Holy crap.

But it's a huge game for Texas too since if the Longhorns lose their own playoff bid may be on the line. Yes, Texas would still be 10-2, but the Longhorns would have lost to both decent SEC teams they played and not having a single win against an SEC team, potentially, with a winning record.

Rest assured, the crowd in Aggieland should be absolutely electric.

Which is why I like A&M to win this one outright.

But I'll take the points just to be safe.  

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There you have it, boys and girls, it's time to get rich with my 12 winners.

Hope y'all have fantastic Thanksgiving's!