Clay Travis' College Football Picks For Week 12: Here Are 13 Winners To Turn Season Around

There's no way to defend it, last week was a gambling disaster, we went 5-10, the worst week, I think, so far this season, to drop our record below .500 for the first time all season. We are now 65-68 on the year gambling on college football games. (We did go 4-2 in the Outkick Six Pack, which makes us 38-34 on the year in the NFL. So we are one game over .500 if you had bet all 205 picks on the year. So, yeah. We have to get better.)

The only way to get out of a hole?

As everyone knows, keep digging. 

And that's what we intend to do here. 

I've got 13 winners for you this weekend, so buckle up and get rich, kids. 

TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 11: Quarterback Emory Williams #17 of the Miami Hurricanes passes the football during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Tallahassee, Florida. The 4th ranked Seminoles defeated the Hurricanes 27-20. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Louisville at Miami, the under 47.5

Looking back, the fact that Virginia-Louisville hit the over on Thursday night was an ominous foreshadowing of the week to come. It's 14-0 with five minutes to go in the third quarter and then in the final 20 minutes the team's combine to score 41 points, including two defensive touchdowns. 

But that's in the past now. 

Both of these teams have excellent defenses and with a spot on the line for Louisville in the ACC title game, I think defenses dominate the day. 

The final is 21-17, giving you a 10-point cushion on the under. 

Rutgers at Penn State, the under 42.5

Rutgers couldn't score at Iowa last Saturday and Penn State hasn't been able to score against most teams down the stretch this season. Rutgers has a decent defense and not much offense, Penn State has a really good defense and not much offense. 

So what happens?

I think a game that is somewhat similar to what we saw last week in Iowa. Penn State wins 24-6 and the under cashes with ease.

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA - NOVEMBER 11: Michigan acting head coach and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore celebrates on the slide line during the Michigan Wolverines versus Penn State Nittany Lions game on November 11, 2023 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Michigan -19.5 at Maryland

I know many people will take Maryland here because this is the definition of a trap game, big win on the road at Penn State and Ohio State looms next weekend for Michigan. 

But I actually think the Harbaugh suspension benefits Michigan because it causes the team to focus way better than they ordinarily would. 

Michigan doesn't want to just win, they want to send a message to everyone about how wrongly they are being treated. 

And Maryland happens to be the unfortunate victim here, I like the Wolverines by 28+. 

UMass at Liberty -27.5

All Jamey Chadwell does is win. 

The guy is 40-5 in his past 45 college football games and he has Liberty undefeated and crushing opponents this year. Next up on the chopping block? UMass. 

The Flames burn their way to another win and another cover.

Duke at Virginia, the under 46.5

Two teams that have solid defenses yet often play games dictated by their opponents. 

What happens when they play?

Almost no points, the under is the play.

Illinois at Iowa, the over 30.5

I'm doing it, I'm taking an Iowa over. 

I really am. 

The Iowa offense is showing some life and the Illinois defense is not. I think Iowa may, grab your pearls, be good for 21 in this game and that means Illinois just needs ten to get over the number. 

In fact, and you really may need the fainting couch now, I think it's possible Iowa hits the over by themselves. 

The over, shudder, is really the play in an Iowa game. 

COLUMBIA, MO - NOVEMBER 11: Tennessee Volunteers defensive back Jaylen McCollough (2) stands with his arms crossed to celebrate a defended pass in the third quarter of an SEC football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers on Nov 11, 2023 at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Georgia at Tennessee +10.5

When you've been saying Tennessee was going to beat Georgia in Neyland all season long like I have, you have to take the Vols as a double digit home underdog. 

Tennessee has been a completely different team on the road and at home for Josh Heupel's past two years. 

Georgia is coming off its best game of the season and Tennessee is coming off its worst. Sometimes that flips the next week in college football. 

Which is why I'm taking the Vols for the cover. 

And regardless of what happens in the game, I'll be live in Knoxville for Big Noon on Fox.

North Carolina at Clemson, the over 58.5

North Carolina's defense can't stop anyone. 

And that includes Clemson.

Honestly, UNC just plays shootout games no matter the opponent. The Tar Heels dictate pace. And the pace is the over at Clemson.  

Florida at Missouri - 11 and the over 58.5

Mizzou is licking its chops for the Gators, who figure to fall to 5-6 on the road in Columbia this weekend. 

But this Gator defense has just completely fallen apart the past few weeks. Consider these numbers, the Gators have given up 39, 43, 39, and 52 in their past four games. So you can pencil in Mizzou for at least 40 on Saturday. 

Meanwhile the Gator offense hasn't been a disaster, scoring 38, 41, 20 (against Georgia), 36 and 35 the past five weeks. 

Figure the Gators score 21+, which is why, tap the veins boys and girls, my blood bank guarantee this week is the over in Florida at Mizzou. (And Mizzou also covers.)

Texas at Iowa State +7.5

Remember earlier this year when I told you Oklahoma State was going to beat Oklahoma outright. 

Iowa State is going to beat Texas outright this weekend. 

But you get a full touchdown if I'm wrong. 

Take the Cyclones to blow up the Big 12's playoff chances in Ames.

Kentucky at South Carolina, the over 53.5

This is a sneaky big game for both teams. 

The Gamecocks need to win to stay potentially eligible for a bowl and Kentucky, coming off a beatdown against Alabama, wants to avoid a 6-6 season after starting the year 5-0. 

So what happens? Both teams score 27+ and the game may well head into overtime in a shootout fashion. 

Washington at Oregon State, the over 63.5

Oregon State has a chance to put a loss on Washington and potentially win out to make the Pac 12 title game. 

In what would be the final year of the Pac 12. 

Which means this is a must watch game and the Beavers home crowd will be wild. 

The result?

A shootout to end the year in Corvallis, the over's the play. 

...

There you have it, a bounce back weekend of 13 winners to get us back in the winner's circle. 

I'll see you guys in Knoxville for a Big Noon Kickoff hit on Saturday.