Clay Travis' College Football Picks For Week 11: Two Guarantees + Alabama/Kentucky Will Determine If I'm A Genius Or An Idiot

We managed another winning week, finishing 9-8 with a tough late beat on the Michigan game when Purdue hit a touchdown pass on 4th down after letting the clock run all the way down before taking a timeout. (I actually thought Purdue might kick a field goal to cover so credit to the Boilermakers for at least going for the touchdown.)

As a result we are now 60-58 on the season, which is a 51% winning percentage. The goal, as always, is to do much better than 51% winners so let's keep things rolling this week and notch another roster of winners. 

By the way, the picks are up early this week because I'm headed to Miami for the next three days and will be running around for a lot of Clay and Buck radio events. Stay tuned, we've got a big interview scheduled for Wednesday and we will also be reacting to the third Republican debate, which is taking place in the city. 

Okay, let's roll with 15 winners this weekend. 

Virginia at Louisville, the under 51.5

The Louisville defense has often dominated games, which may be a bit of a surprise given Jeff Brohm has such an offensive background. 

But the Cardinal defense is stout and the Virginia offense has been weak. 

The result? A low scoring winner for you on Thursday night to start the college football weekend off right. 

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 04: Jalen Milroe #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the LSU Tigers during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 04, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Alabama at Kentucky +10.5

This bet is either going to make me look like a genius or an idiot. 

But here's my rationale, Kentucky's defense is decent and Devin Leary is playing better. Meanwhile Alabama is coming off huge games against Tennessee and LSU and feels a bit relaxed playing against a team like Kentucky.

Plus, as good as Jalen Milroe is playing, I don't really think this Alabama team has great skill position talent. If Kentucky can avoid turning the ball over, this Tide team hasn't really blown out most SEC opponents.  

Give me the Wildcats...really. 

Vanderbilt at South Carolina, the over 57.5

I think I've lost every bet I've placed on Vanderbilt and South Carolina all year long. 

So why not keep the magic intact and bet on them playing each other? 

Spencer Rattler picks apart the Commodore defense to the tune of 35+, but an often porous Cocks defense allows Vanderbilt to notch 20+ as well. Here's hoping we finally reach pay dirt betting on these teams. 

EAST LANSING, MI - OCTOBER 21: Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh walks through the tunnel prior to a college football game between the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines on October 21, 2023 at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Michigan at Penn State +5.5

This feels like a James Franklin special. The entire Nittany Lion season boils down to this game. Lose and even a 10-2 record will leave Penn State fans with a sour taste in their mouths. 

Win and everything, a national title, the Big Ten title, all of it still feels possible. 

Deep down even Michigan fans are nervous that their team's dominance is going to be challenged at some point. I think that happens for the first time in Happy Valley on Saturday. 

Give me the Nittany Lions and the points.

Old Dominion at Liberty, the over 57.5

Has anyone noticed that Liberty is undefeated again this year and that Jamey Chadwell has now gone 39-5 in his past four seasons coaching in FBS? No? Well, you should have. 

Liberty is piling up points -- going for 42, 42, and 56 in the past three games -- and ODU has also gone for 28, 27 and 24 against solid competition the past three weeks. 

This over sails past 57.5 and the only people who notice will be gamblers like you, getting rich on the points raining down.  

Which is why you need to tap the veins, boys and girls, our first blood bank guarantee of the week is the over in ODU-Liberty. 

NC State at Wake Forest, the under 44.5

Neither team can score and each team has a solid defense. 

I could spend more time analyzing it, but the under is hitting by a full 10 points. 

Rutgers at Iowa, the under 28.5

Come on, 28.5, is this real?

Iowa wins 7-3 and you could still win this bet with an over/under of 11. 

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 28: Graham Mertz #15 of the Florida Gators throws a pass during the first half of a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at EverBank Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Florida at LSU, the over 63.5

LSU is going to score 40+ on Florida and the LSU defense is pretty much guaranteed to give up 24+ to the Gators. 

Boom, the math checks out. 

The over cashes by early in the fourth quarter. 

Auburn at Arkansas -2.5

I'm betting on the better quarterback at home. 

It really is that simple. 

Yes, Arkansas is 3-6, but the talent is too good for the record to be this bad. 

KJ Jefferson and company get the home win.

Ole Miss +11.5 at Georgia

The only thing more dangerous than Lane Kiffin with nothing to lose in a football game is Lane Kiffin with nothing to lose in a college bar. 

In all seriousness, Ole Miss is playing with house money. They Rebels are close to eliminated in the SEC West and everyone expects Georgia to lock up the SEC East with a home win in Athens. 

What's that mean? Lane comes out guns blazing. So Ole Miss either loses by 30 or has the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. I'll bet the latter, give me the Rebs plus the points.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M -17.5 and the under 44.5

I'm not sure Mississippi State can score against this Aggie defense on the road. 

In a normal situation like this, I'd take the Aggies in a blowout, but instead I'll just bet on an ugly, ugly game. This has 31-3 written all over it. 

Give me the Aggies by a bundle and the under. 

Tennessee at Missouri, the over 59.5

The line has swung from Mizzou by 1.5 to Tennessee by 1.5 as I write this Sunday night. 

And ultimately here's what I think, Tennessee will struggle to stop Mizzou's passing game and Mizzou will struggle to stop Tennessee's running game. Which means this game likely comes down to who forces the most field goals or which defense or special teams manages a score. 

So rather than roll the dice on this, I'm taking the over as I think each team will score 30.

Duke +10.5 at North Carolina

No, this isn't a basketball bet, not yet at least. 

The Duke defense has been stout all year, holding every opponent except Florida State in check. So why do I expect UNC to suddenly come out and dominate, particularly given North Carolina's own defensive struggles?

Put simply, I don't. 

Plus, UNC has lost its past two ACC games against subpar opponents, by four to Virginia and by four to Georgia Tech. 

Give me the Blue Devils plus the points. 

Southern California at Oregon, the over 74.5

Oregon will score fifty, go ahead and write it down. 

So the question is can USC put up 25 or more? I think the Trojans can. Which is why this is my second blood bank guarantee of the weekend on a late Saturday night at Autzen. 

Boom, pop the champagne the over hits again and you can celebrate a 15-0 weekend. 

...

There you have it, boys and girls, let's get rich, kids. 

As always, #respectthepicks