Clay Travis' College Football Picks For Week 10: So Many Unders Will Be Profitable, Georgia Will Have A Closer Game Than Many Think
We went 6-5 last week to run our season record to 51-50. Yep, pretty much dead even, but just barely in the ranks of the positive. It's time to step up our game through the month of November and start to rack up some winners. (We also went 5-2 in the NFL Outkick Six Pack, which will be up tomorrow on the site, so it was nice to have another week of double winners.)
This week, in honor of Halloween, I may have gone a bit bonkers with the number of bets I'm making.
What can I say, I love a ton of lines on the board this week.
So let's get rolling with 17 winners this weekend.
Yes, 17, really. And an absolute ton of unders in the process too.
Get rich, kids.
Wake Forest at Duke, the under 45.5
The Duke offense has vanished, but the defense remains stout. So what happens when two nerd schools meet? Nothing.
And nothing is great when you have the under, which cashes with ease.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, the under 53.5
Jimbo Fisher's future at Texas A&M may well come down to how he handles this game against Ole Miss and the game against LSU later this season as well.
While the A&M offense has often been a mess, the defense has actually been very sound all year.
I think that continues in Oxford on Saturday, it's a low scoring single digit game, similar to what happened against Alabama and Tennessee.
So give me the under here.
LINCOLN, NEBRASKA - OCTOBER 28: Running back Emmett Johnson #21 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers scores against the Purdue Boilermakers in the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
Nebraska at Michigan State, the under 34.5
Matt Rhule is going to get Nebraska to a bowl game in year one.
And he's going to do it with his defense.
Which dominates this game at Michigan State.
The Big Ten West's secret sauce? Unders. Always.
Ohio State at Rutgers +18.5
My guy Greg Schiano, the greatest college football coach in Big Ten history according to national media, doesn't just lay down for Ohio State.
The pride of New Jersey is on the line!
And quite honestly, I just don't think this Ohio State offense is strong enough to be favored by this much in a road game.
Rutgers covers.
JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 28: Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) runs with the ball during the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida Gators on October 28, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Arkansas at Florida -6
Arkansas fired their OC and has lost six games in a row, including two weeks ago when they only managed three points at home against Mississippi State.
But surely with two weeks to prepare the Razorbacks show some pride here.
Right, right?
Wrong.
The Gators bounce back from a disaster in Jacksonville to win by 10.
Notre Dame -2.5 at Clemson and the under 45.5
You know college football is wild when in the space of two years we've gone from beating Clemson at home is a signature win for Marcus Freeman to losing to Clemson on the road would be a bad loss for Marcus Freeman.
Clemson is, however, an average ACC team. They're the tenth best team in the ACC right now. And average teams in the ACC lose to Notre Dame, home or away.
So the Fighting Irish get the win in a low scoring game, which gives you a double payoff.
Iowa at Northwestern, the under 30.5
This is the lowest over/under I've ever seen in college football.
And, guess what, I'm betting unders on Iowa games whenever I can.
Boom, there's your analysis, the under is the play. .
STILLWATER, OK - OCTOBER 28: Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Gunnar Gundy (12) leads the team onto the field for the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats on October 28th, 2023 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater Oklahoma. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State +6.5
I'm sorry, the wrong team is favored here.
Oklahoma State is going to win this game outright behind Ollie Gordon, who is the best player in college football no one knows.
That's why it's time for, tap the veins, boys and girls, a big time Cowboy win in Bedlam. But we get them plus nearly a touchdown too so even if the Cowboys don't win, you can still get the cover.
Missouri +15.5 at Georgia
Do you know the toughest game Georgia had last season in the SEC?
It was at Mizzou, a game the Bulldogs were fortunate to win.
Now the Tigers, fresh off a bye week, are headed on the road to Athens and the line is massive here, suggesting Mizzou is going to get blown out like Kentucky did. But I disagree, I think Mizzou only loses by around 10.
Which is why I'm hopping on the Tiger train to cover.
Florida State at Pittsburgh +21.5
I know, I know, Pitt just lost by over fifty at Notre Dame. And Pat Narduzzi had to apologize for what he said about his team after the game. So I might be the only person betting on Pitt on the planet.
But here's the deal, Florida State, often, doesn't play that well when they take trips like this to the northeast, witness Boston College earlier this season.
And Pitt, while having an awful season, has been good enough to beat good teams like Louisville at home.
Does that mean an upset is brewing? No, but I think Pitt only loses by two touchdowns, giving you a nice cover.
Auburn at Vanderbilt +12.5
The Auburn offense hasn't been great on the road.
Granted, Vanderbilt's really not much of a road trip, but here's a bet filled with trepidation on the Commodores to cover what feels like a pretty big number.
Anchor down! (And lose by 7 for us Vandy).
California at Oregon, the over 57.5
Suddenly Cal's defense can't stop anyone and they are going balls to the wall on the offensive side.
Meanwhile the Oregon offense will definitely post 40+ in this game. (And they may hit 50 by themselves).
That means all I need is 20+ from Cal to cover this game with ease.
Give me the over.
Purdue at Michigan -32.5
Everyone in college football hates Michigan all of a sudden and they've had to listen to the negativity for two weeks.
Poor Purdue.
Hail to the gambling victor, 45-3 is the final.
BATON ROUGE, LA - OCTOBER 21: LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) catches a pass during a game between the LSU Tigers and the Army Black Knights on October 21, 2023, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LSU at Alabama, the over 59.5
I wanted to bet LSU in this game, but the line as of Monday afternoon when I'm sending these picks in, is LSU +3. That feels way too low. Because you're basically betting on an LSU win at that price.
And while an LSU win wouldn't shock me, I'd need over 3 to bet LSU right now on the road at Alabama.
So I'm hitting this game on the over instead. The LSU defense hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone in the SEC so far this year and I think Alabama will score on them too. But I think this LSU offense will score a bunch on the Tide too.
It feels like a shootout in Tuscaloosa, give me the over.
Kentucky at Mississippi State, the under 45.5
It sounds crazy, but this is a huge game for both teams.
Win and Kentucky gets bowl eligible, lose and the Cats might just lose out to finish the year.
Meanwhile Mississippi State is also fighting for bowl eligibility and this is the exact kind of game they have to win if they want to get there.
So what happens?
A defensive battle. I love the under here.
Miami at N.C. State, the under 45.5
Speaking of a defensive battle, neither offense has been explosive for weeks and Miami is coming off yet another overtime game.
I feel like N.C. State finds a way to win this game, but I love the under even more.
...
There you have it, boys and girls, that's 17 winners for you just in time for Halloween.
Get rich, kids and lock in your bets.