Clay Travis' College Football Gambling Picks, Week 5: Take Underdog Alabama To Beat Georgia In Tuscaloosa
Last week, even though we went 6-6 overall, I felt like we got our mojo back.
We had three late losses that kept us from 9-3 and all of our wins, including the blood bank guarantee on Tennessee at Oklahoma, were no doubters. But we are 23-32 on the year, with a bunch of ground to make up as the season progresses.
But with the mojo returned, we're ready to go 14-0 this weekend.
Before we get to the picks, I will be live with Big Noon, Fox's college football pregame show, from Georgia at Alabama on Saturday morning and then will be going to the game with my eighth-grade son, who I love very much and has no flaws in my eyes except for his awful taste in college football teams -- he's a Bama fan.
So I look forward to spending the weekend at an incredible game and hope to see many of you out and about there.
WATCH THIS WEEK'S EPISODE OF THE FADE WITH CLAY & KELLY
Virginia Tech at Miami -19.5
Last week I was dead wrong about Miami getting a challenge from South Florida and I'm not making that mistake again. The Hurricanes are going to dominate a Virginia Tech team that has been a huge disappointment so far this season.
Virginia Tech has already lost to Vanderbilt and Rutgers this season, and they're not getting better on the road at Miami.
The Hurricanes crush the Hokies by over 21, giving you a nice winning start to the weekend.
STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 21: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (Photo by WJ/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Oklahoma State at Kansas State -4.5
Last week these two Big 12 preseason title favorites took tough losses to teams from Utah.
Now they meet for what feels like a Big 12 title elimination game.
I'm not sold on Oklahoma State, particularly its inability to run the football and I think the home crowd cures what ails the Wildcats, who win by a touchdown.
Minnesota at Michigan, the under 36.5
Michigan won last week, but the Wolverines put on tape the fact that, essentially, they have no passing game.
Fortunately, they play Minnesota, who has no offense either.
So what happens here? An ugly, bumbling, offensive affair that sees the under cash.
RELATED: Three And Out, Week 5: Big SEC Showdown, Remember Penn State And Realignment Blues
Kentucky +18 at Ole Miss
I'm either going to look like a moron or a genius with this pick.
Kentucky has no offense to speak of, but I do think the Wildcats have a decent defense. Meanwhile Ole Miss hasn't really played anyone, allowing their gaudy offense to mostly go unchallenged by a defense that can match up with them at all.
I don't think Kentucky can score enough to win, but do I think they can keep it to a 10-14 point loss?
Yep.
So give me the Wildcats in Oxford.
AUBURN, ALABAMA - SEPTEMBER 14: Cornerback Champ Anthony of the Auburn Tigers. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
Oklahoma at Auburn +2.5 and the under 45.5
Okay, at some point, hear me out, Auburn isn't going to have 36 turnovers in a football game.
And when that happens, the Tigers are going to win.
Guess what, that happens this weekend when Auburn pulls off a home upset over Oklahoma.
As for the under, I don't think either team has much of an offense and with Oklahoma breaking in a new quarterback -- especially a less talented version of Taylen Green, the quarterback Auburn just played -- I think the Sooners offense will struggle mightily.
The result?
Auburn wins 20-14, giving you an outright Tigers win as an underdog and cashing an under ticket as well.
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Arkansas at Texas A&M -3.5 and the under 52.5
How will Texas A&M break Arkansas's heart this year?
That's the question Razorback fans are stewing over already.
But in the meantime, I'm focused on the pace here, which I think A&M sets with their defense, leaving the under to cash.
Why?
Taylen Green has regressed for Arkansas since early in the season -- completing less than half his passes in each of the past two games -- and I think the Aggies are fairly decent on defense. Plus, they played Riley Leonard fairly well earlier in the season, and I think he's a more skilled version of Green.
So give me the under here and the Aggies to get the win by four or more.
Illinois +19 at Penn State and the under 47.5
I know James Franklin is a covering machine, especially at home, but this Illinois team impressed me at Nebraska.
So I'm stepping in front of a potential Nittany Lion freight train and taking the Illini to keep it under three touchdowns in Happy Valley.
Plus, I still think both teams are pretty solid on defense, which means I'm taking the under too.
Figure Penn State 24-10 and we win both sides of this bet.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 2: Jalen Milroe #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide is pursued by Daylen Everette #6 of the Georgia Bulldogs during the first quarter in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 2, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Georgia at Alabama +2.5 and the under 48.5
As I mentioned above, I'll be at this game for Big Noon and can't wait to see what happens as Alabama is an underdog at home for the first time since 2007.
Meanwhile the Bulldogs are 45-2 in their past 47 with both losses coming to Alabama, including last season in the SEC title game.
Meaning Kirby Smart has conquered everyone except the Tide.
So what happens in Tuscaloosa on Saturday?
Alabama wins 21-17, notching an outright win as an underdog and cashing an under ticket for us too.
South Alabama at LSU, the over 65.5
LSU's offense can't stop anyone and I don't think that changes against South Alabama, which hung 87 on an opponent a couple of weeks ago.
Plus, I know the bye is next week, but LSU has Ole Miss looming on the horizon.
Just kick your feet up on a Louisiana Saturday night and enjoy the points rolling in.
Oregon at UCLA +25.5
The line's just too big.
I mean, come on, UCLA has some respect for itself, right?
Right?!
Chances are I'll be asleep before it ends, so hopefully I'll wake up on Sunday morning and UCLA will have capped off a perfect 14-0 day for us by covering this big number.
...
There you have it, boys and girls.
We're going 14-0.
Get rich, kids. And I'll see y'all in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.