Clay Travis' College Football Gambling Picks, Week 4: Bet Your Blood On Tennessee Over Oklahoma
Last week was an unmitigated disaster -- Kamala Harris in any interview style five alarm fire -- when it came to the gambling picks.
We posted a 3-12 record, among the worst weeks on record in college football, dropping us to 17-26 on the year.
Yep, we've dug a hole for ourselves early in the season.
But, thankfully, I've had quite a bit of experience in gambling holes before and, as anyone who has ever been in a gambling hole will tell you, the only way out of a gambling hole is by digging more.
Which is why I have 12 winners for all of you this weekend.
L-R: Dylan Raiola #15 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images). Illinois Fighting Illini RB Ca'Lil Valentine (5). (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Illinois at Nebraska, the under 43.5
I love what Matt Rhule has done in year two at Nebraska, but what Brett Bielema has done at Illinois is also super impressive. At the end of this game on Friday night, it's on Fox, don't forget!, one of these two fan bases is going to be delirious with glee that they are sitting at 4-0.
But Nebraska has moved out to over a touchdown favorite in this game.
And that price feels steep.
What do I like more?
The under.
It's 21-17, one team wins, but everyone with the under wins.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. - Taylor Spierto of the Florida Gators dives for a pass during the second half of a game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 14, 2024. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
Florida at Mississippi State, the over 58.5
In the SEC's battle of football sadness, the two worst teams in the conference, at least so far, meet for a game in Starkville that almost no one could love.
The Bulldogs just got boat raced by Toledo at home and Texas A&M came into Gainesville and finally won an SEC road game, pushing the Gators all over the field in the process.
So, what lessons have we learned from both these teams so far? Neither team has a defense.
And if neither team has a defense both teams will go up and down the field all Saturday long, give me the over.
(PS, it's cruel and unusual punishment that, in addition to both teams stinking, the game will be kicking off at 11 am central. So you can't even stay out that late drinking the night before to help ease the pain of this game. Brutal.)
LEXINGTON, Ky. - Demie Sumo-Karngbaye #0 of the Kentucky Wildcats runs the ball as Raylen Wilson #5 of the Georgia Bulldogs tries to make the tackle during the first half at Kroger Field on September 14, 2024. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Ohio at Kentucky, the under 42.5
Anyone want to bet that Mark Stoops makes a series of outlandish fourth down decisions to go for it in this game after a week's criticism for punting late against Georgia?
I'd take that bet.
What I wouldn't take is Kentucky's offense to score many points against anyone, even Ohio.
Under's the play.
Vanderbilt +21.5 at Mizzou
I know Mizzou is 3-0, but I wasn't that impressed with them against Boston College.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt lost a road game at Georgia State as a favorite -- the fact that Vanderbilt has to play road games at places like Georgia State is inexcusable, by the way, what's going on with that schedule decision? -- but now they head to Columbia as a three-touchdown underdog.
Traditionally, this is when the Commodores play at least somewhat decently, when no one expects anything from them at all.
So give me Vandy with over three touchdowns here.
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions leads the team onto the field before the game against the Bowling Green Falcons at Beaver Stadium on September 7, 2024. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Kent State at Penn State -48.5
Kent State may be the worst team in all of the FBS.
Tennessee could have scored 100 points last week and did score 65 in the first half.
Now, after getting whipped all over the field in Knoxville, Kent State has to travel to Happy Valley where Penn State has been waiting two weeks to avenge their poor performance against Bowling Green. I mean, come on, Penn State got a bye week before Kent State?!
That's just unfair.
Nittany Lions by 60.
ANN ARBOR, Mich. - Michigan Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings (20) jumps over the line for a first down during the Michigan Wolverines versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves game on Saturday September 14, 2024 at Michigan Stadium. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
USC at Michigan, the under 46.5
We've got a new quarterback for Michigan and a second massive home game for the Wolverines -- this time USC is traveling across the country.
So how does first-year head coach Sherrone Moore handle this? By completely relying on this defense and trying to run the football and take the air out of the game on offense.
I don't think Michigan has the offensive horses to make a ton of big plays, but I do think they have the defense to slow it down against USC. And even though I'm not a big believer in the USC defense, Michigan doesn't have a lot of explosive talent, so I think they corral this offense as well.
Michigan keeps it close and low scoring throughout, the under's the play.
Arizona State at Texas Tech, the over 58.5
Texas Tech has played in three games so far this season. The totals are 103, 53, and 87. Meanwhile, undefeated Arizona State -- did anyone expect that? -- has scored thirty or more in every game this season.
What happens in this one?
Each team goes for 30+ and the total soars into the sixties, giving you a nice over win.
Utah at Oklahoma State, the under 54.5
This is a bet on Kyle Whittingham to control pace in this game more than Mike Gundy can.
It's hard to have a good read on this game, honestly, because these two teams haven't played against each other since 1945.
Yet, thanks to the wonders of realignment, they might play twice this year, once in Stillwater and again in the Big 12 title game.
In really big games, I've just seen Whittingham lean on his defense a great deal and I think he does it again on Saturday. Plus, I'm not convinced Mike Gundy's team is as good offensively as they have been in past years.
So give me the under here.
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. - Miami quarterback Cam Ward throws a touchdown pass in the second quarter as the Miami Hurricanes faced the Ball State Cardinals on September 14, 2024, at Hard Rock Stadium. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Miami at South Florida +16.5 and the over 65.5
In year two with South Florida, Alex Golesh's offense is starting to cook a bit.
And I'm just calling it early, it feels a bit like Miami might be walking into a real battle here.
The Hurricanes have been rolling and their defense has been dominant, but I think a shootout is coming in Tampa, take South Florida and the over for a double win you can spend on the hard working ladies at Mons Venus.
If you know, you know, the Bulls offense makes sure we get a two for one winner.
Northwestern at Washington, the under 42.5
Two bad offenses meet in a game only the fan bases will care about.
But if you take the under, you'll enjoy it too.
Because it's cashing.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Nico Iamaleava of the Tennessee Volunteers breaks loose for a long run during the first half and makes a juke around Khalib Johns of the Kent State Golden Flashes at Neyland Stadium on September 14, 2024. (Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)
Tennessee -6.5 at Oklahoma
Tap the veins, boys and girls, the Tennessee Volunteers are going to win this game on the defensive line of scrimmage, which is why it's my blood bank guarantee for the week.
Lots of attention is focused on Nico, but if he and the Tennessee offense can just avoid turning the football over at night in Norman, the story of this game should be the Tennessee defensive line against the Oklahoma offensive line.
I think the Vols are going to own the trenches, get up a couple of scores early, and take Oklahoma out of their preferred offensive play calling strategy.
To beat Tennessee this year, I think it's going to take a truly dynamic playmaker at quarterback and I don't think Jackson Arnold is that talent.
Josh Heupel gets his revenge in Norman, the Vols win by double digits, and move to 4-0 on the season.
...
There you have it, boys and girls, that's 12 winners for all of you.
Let's get back on the winning track and start to put a dent in this deficit.