Firing From The Hip On Four More Circa Million VI NFL Week 8 Selections
It's been an ugly start to my Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. Through the first seven weeks, I'm 15-20 and tied for 4,019th out of 5,816 entries. Last week was gross, with two of my four losses being random rather than bad process.
I understand my San Francisco 49ers over Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions losses. You cannot be surprised to lose against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid off of a bye. The Vikings lost a close one to the Lions, 31-29, but the better team won.
Week 7 Recap: 1-4
- Cleveland Browns (+5.5) ❌
- Vikings (-1.5) ❌
- Green Bay Packers (-2.5) ❌
- Seattle Seahawks (+3) ✅
- 49ers (-1.5) ❌
However, the Browns' and Packers' losses were brutal. Cleveland missed a field goal and PAT in a 21-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as +5.5 underdogs. Then my Green Bay -2.5 pick got hooked when the Packers eked past the Houston Texans 24-22.
As a result, I spent less time breaking down this slate. If I'm going to lose anyway, I might as well not overthink it. So, instead of waiting until my Saturday deadline to submit my NFL Week 8 picks, I fired early. Fortunately, my instincts were correct, and I'm entering Sunday 1-0.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 8 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Los Angeles Rams (+3) ✅
- Chicago Bears (-2.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
- Buffalo Bills (-3)
- Indianapolis Colts (+5)
Circa Million Pick #1: Vikings at Rams (+3) ✅
LA beat Minnesota 30-20 Thursday, and it feels good banking a win, especially when you're running as badly as me. I submitted my Week 8 card before the Saturday deadline because I knew we'd see an all-in effort from the Rams, and we did.
Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned for Week 8 and played well. QB Matt Stafford threw a season-high four touchdown passes. Los Angeles had a phenomenal defensive game plan, allowing Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson to "get his," but not catch any deep balls, and stopping the run.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws touchdown pass vs. the Minnesota Vikings at SoFi Stadium on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 8.
Los Angeles is now 3-4, one game behind the 4-3 Seattle Seahawks for first in the NFC West, and these teams meet in Week 9. If Seattle loses to the Buffalo Bills this week, (spoiler alert: I think it will), then Rams-Seahawks next week is for first place in the division.
I even bet the Rams to win the NFC +5500 before they played the Vikings Thursday because I love this team. When Kupp, Puka, and Stafford are healthy, LA has a top-five passing attack in the NFL, and coach Sean McVay is a proven winner. The Rams can beat anyone in the NFC, including the Detroit Lions and Niners.
(LISTEN to Vikings-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Bears (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
As I wrote in my Weekend Betting Guide for October 25-27, Chicago is my "best bet of NFL Week 8". It's unlikely Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels will play Sunday. But, if he does, I'll live with getting the Bears at a worse number because the Commanders will likely become favorites. Either way, between Chicago's top-10 defense and QB Caleb Williams heating up, the Bears will win by double digits Sunday.
(LISTEN to Bears-Commanders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Packers at Jaguars (+4)
No one is giving credit to the Jaguars for beating the last-place New England Patriots 32-16 in London last week. Nor should they. Jacksonville was -7 and QB Trevor Lawrence is still a franchise guy. The Jaguars play in London every season and were facing a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Pregame.com, more than 80% of the bets are on the Packers as of Saturday afternoon.
That said, Jacksonville easily covered the spread, which is all you can ask a team to do, and the Jaguars are better than its 2-5 record. Three of their losses were to the Miami Dolphins with QB Tua Tagovailoa healthy, the Bills with QB Josh Allen playing like an MVP, and the Houston Texans before superstar WR Nico Collins got hurt.
The Jacksonville Jaguars +4 over the Green Bay Packers is one of my Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest picks for Week 8. (Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Lawrence has been the victim of sh*tty wide receiver play. Lawrence has the highest drop rate (10.3%) among the 28 quarterbacks with at least 155 dropbacks, per PFF. Maybe it won’t happen this week but, eventually, Jacksonville’s receivers will catch the ball when it hits them in bleeping hands.
Finally, the Jaguars are 11th in early-down success rate (EDSR) at +3.1% and the Packers are last at -7.9%, per RBSDM.com. Essentially, Green Bay has been inefficient on early downs and needs QB Jordan Love to bail them out on third down. The Packers are 10th in third-down conversion differential and the Jaguars are 30th. That can only last so long.
(LISTEN to Packers-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Bills (-3) at Seahawks
On paper, this is a matchup between two first-place teams. But in reality, the Bills are in another league. They lead the NFL in net EPA and outrank the Seahawks in net early-down success rate and net yards per play. Somehow, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is the third betting favorite to win the 2024 NFL MVP at +500 on DraftKings, behind Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+225) and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+450).
I won’t complain about Jackson having better odds than Allen. Lamar leads the NFL in QB Rating (118.0) and leads the best offense in the NFL. However, Allen leads the NFL in QBR (79.3), which accounts for more running than QB Rating, and he has 15 total touchdowns (12 passing and 3 rushing) with 0 interceptions.
Also, I have a good read on the Seahawks. I’ve correctly bet back-to-back Seattle games. The "San Francisco 49ers -3.5" was one of my five Circa Million VI picks two weeks ago when they crushed the Seahawks 36-24. Then, I successfully backed Seattle when it upset the Atlanta Falcons 34-14 last week as +3 road underdogs.
The Seahawks will most likely be without No. 1 WR D.K. Metcalf. They are too predictable on offense and Bills head coach Sean McDermott is an elite defensive mind. Seattle has the highest pass rate in the NFL and Buffalo’s defense struggles against the run. But, no Metcalf means Seattle QB Geno Smith is missing his down-field threat, so the Bills can put more defenders in the box.
The only thing the Seahawks do well defensively is pressure the quarterback. They are ninth in sack rate. Yet, the Bills are third in sack rate allowed. Ultimately, this is a bad matchup for Seattle and Buffalo isn’t worried about going on the road. The Bills are 9-3 overall and 8-3-1 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites of -3.5 or less since hiring McDermott in 2017.
(LISTEN to Bills-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Texans at Colts (+5)
When DraftKings released look-ahead lines this summer, the Texans were a -4 favorite over the Colts this week. With that in mind, I cannot figure out why Houston’s spread has increased by 1.5 points since the summer. The Texans are missing Collins, who led the NFL in receiving yards before getting hurt in Week 5.
Indy is 6-1 ATS, Houston is 3-4 ATS with the luckiest ATS win ever last week (we’ll talk about that later), and the Texans’ underlying metrics don’t support them being more than -4 favorites here. Houston is 15th in net EPA and 21st in early-down success rate (EDSR) whereas Indianapolis is 18th in net EPA and 16th in EDSR.
Harkening back to Houston’s bogus cover in Green Bay last week. The Texans lost 24-22 but covered as -2.5 road underdogs. I picked the Packers -2.5 in the Circa Million VI and it was my most infuriating loss of the year. The Texans gained less than 1.5 yards per play, were +3 in turnovers, and had scoring drives of six, 11, and 23 yards.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson pushes into the end zone for a touchdown vs. the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Grace Hollars/IndyStar-USA TODAY NETWORK)
They covered Sunday despite C.J. Stroud playing the worst game of his career. Stroud completed 10-of-21 throws for a career-low 86 passing yards with a 58.8 QB Rating, the second-worst mark of his career. If the Packers don’t commit three turnovers, there is no way the Texans cover the spread.
Lastly, they couldn’t cover as -3 road favorites in Indy in a 29-27 Week 1 victory with Collins in the lineup. Collins crushed Indianapolis’s secondary; he caught 6 balls for 117 yards. The next closest Texans receiver was Stefon Diggs, who caught 6 passes for 33 yards. Houston’s offense has regressed since Collins was hurt.
(LISTEN to Texans-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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