Circa Million VI NFL Week 7 Picks Featuring Chiefs Vs. 49ers Super Bowl Rematch
After three consecutive losing weeks, I got off the mat in last week's Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest, despite catching a brutal beat in the Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants. Nevertheless, I'll take what I can get because sharp picks lost, and the public crushed it last. Through NFL Week 6, I'm 14-16 in the Circa Million VI and tied for 3,149th out of 5,816 entries.
Week 6 Recap: 3-2
- San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) ✅
- New England Patriots (+7) ❌
- Bears (-2.5) ✅
- Giants (+3.5) ❌
- Buffalo Bills (-2.5) ✅
Circa Million VI NFL Week 7 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
- Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
- Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
- Seattle Seahawks (+3)
- San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Circa Million Pick #1: Bengals at Browns (+5.5)
There are so many things to like about Cleveland this week. First, the Browns get their heart and soul back for Week 7, RB Nick Chubb. Second, Cleveland's defense has tortured Cincy QB Joe Burrow over the years. Best of all, the betting public is all over Cincinnati, so we have "fade the market" angle with the Dawg Pound here.
(LISTEN to Bengals-Browns analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Detroit Lions at Vikings (-1.5)
Detroit, and QB Jared Goff in particular, are coming off back-to-back amazing performances. The Lions beat the Seattle Seahawks 42-29 on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and crushed the Dallas Cowboys 47-9 Sunday.
But, the Seahawks have a banged-up front seven and their defense has fallen off a cliff after playing a soft schedule to start the season. The Cowboys were also missing Pro Bowl pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, who were coming off a bye.
The Vikings are the team playing after a bye this week and have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL in points allowed per play and ranks fifth in yards per play allowed.
Furthermore, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores helped Bill Belichick devise the New England Patriots’ defensive game plan when they beat Goff and the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl 2019. Goff had a 65.9 QB Rating in LA’s 28-17 loss to the Dolphins while he played for the Rams and Flores was Miami’s head coach.
The Minnesota Vikings -1.5 over the Detroit Lions is one of my five Circa Million VI picks for NFL Week 7. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Granted, Goff played well vs. the Vikings last season, putting up 30 points in both of Detroit’s wins. However, Minnesota’s defense is playing much better now that Flores is in his second year with the Vikings.
Also, Detroit will be without Pro Bowl pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson after he broke his leg Sunday. Hutchinson was the favorite to win 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year in the first six weeks. He could have a T.J. Watt-like influence on Detroit’s defense.
READ: DPOY Favorite Aidan Hutchinson Suffers Gruesome, Likely Season-Ending Injury
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense worsens significantly when Watt is off the field, and the same could happen to the Lions without Hutchinson. His 7.5 sacks are half the team’s total and Hutchinson has 24 of Detroit’s 53 quarterback pressures.
Finally, per PFF, the Vikings have played the third-toughest. Minnesota has wins over the 2023-24 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, the 5-1 Houston Texans, the Packers in Lambeau, and the New York Jets, with one of the best defenses in the league, in London.
(LISTEN to Lions-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Houston Texans at Packers (-2.5)
Green Bay is sixth in net yards per play and sixth in net EPA and has out-gained its opponent in total yards every game this season despite QB Jordan Love missing two games. The Packers were -2.5 favorites over the Texans in the summer look-ahead line.
Yet, between Houston's No. 1 WR Nico Collins being on the IR and how good Green Bay has looked so far, the Packers should be at least -3.5 favorites Sunday. Collins still leads the NFL in receiving yards even though he didn’t play last week.
Green Bay’s secondary can hold up against Houston’s WR corp minus Collins. Packers CB Jaire Alexander is a legit shut-down corner and safety Xavier McKinney is one of the best defensive backs in the league.
The Green Bay Packers -2.5 vs. the Houston Texans are another pick in my Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest in Week 7. (Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)
The strength of the Texans’ defense is their pass rush, which ranks eighth in sack rate. But, Green Bay’s offensive line has the second-best sack rate allowed. Plus, Love has the best touchdown and sack rates in the NFL. If he gets time to throw, Love will carve up Houston’s coverage.
Lastly, the Texans aren’t as good as their record indicates. Pro Football Reference has a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), blending margin of victory with strength of schedule. Houston has a -0.2 SRS and Green Bay’s SRS is +8.4. The Texans are 2-4 ATS and the Packers are 4-2 ATS with a +6.2 spread differential.
(LISTEN to Texans-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Seahawks (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
I've already broken this game down in detail. The TLDR version: 1- We are getting a good price for the Seahawks because they've gotten crushed in bad rest spots recently by much better teams than them or the Falcons. 2- Seattle QB Geno Smith has Peyton Manning-like stats in domes. 3- Smith will have all day to throw because Atlanta has the worst pass rush in the NFL.
(LISTEN to Seahawks-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Kansas City Chiefs at 49ers (-1.5)
This was a featured pick in my Weekend Betting Guide for October 19-20. As I wrote in that article: "I just have a feeling the Niners will beat the sh*t out of the Chiefs Sunday. That’s the simplest way for me to put it".
(LISTEN to Chiefs-49ers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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