Circa Million VI NFL Week 6 Picks Include Four 'Island' Games And A Big Underdog
Last week's 2-3 in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest was soul-crushing. I got "5-0 vibes" during the second half of the 1 p.m. ET window, Sunday. The Minnesota Vikings already covered against the New York Jets in London. The Chicago Bears were destroying the Carolina Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals were up double digits vs. the Baltimore Ravens.
Then it all came crashing down. Cincy choked that lead away, losing 41-38 in overtime as +2.5 underdogs. The Green Bay Packers beat the Los Angeles Rams 24-19 in a game LA had no business losing, let alone not covering. Later, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw a game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds left to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17.
Week 5 Recap: 2-3
- Vikings (-2.5) ✅
- Bears (-3.5) ✅
- Bengals (+2.5) ❌
- Rams (+3.5) ❌
- Steelers (-2.5) ❌
Entering NFL Week 6, I'm 11-14 and tied for 3,338th out of 5,816 Circa Million VI entries. But, I'm going into the weekend with a win under my belt after correctly picking the 49ers to cover as -3.5 favorites in their 36-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 6 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) ✅
- New England Patriots (+7)
- Bears (-2.5)
- New York Giants (+3.5)
- Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Circa Million VI Pick #1: 49ers (-3.5) at Seahawks ✅
Thank god San Francisco beat Seattle. Since the rules say you must submit all of your Circa Million picks simultaneously, forgoing Thursday and Friday practice reports, you feel dumb missing that game. Fortunately, the Niners covered, and hopefully, you tailed me when I gave this pick out Thursday afternoon.
(LISTEN to 49ers-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Houston Texans at Patriots (+7)
Houston was -4.5 on the summer lookahead line and I cannot explain the 2.5-point line move. The Texans are 4-1 straight up (SU) but 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and have been favorites in every game. The Patriots are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS and have been underdogs in every game. My point is that neither team is exceeding nor meeting expectations, so why is Houston -7?
The only new information for this game is the injury to Texans stud WR Nico Collins. He left in the first quarter of Houston’s 23-20 Week 5 win over the Buffalo Bills after scoring a 67-yard receiving touchdown. That gave the Texans a 14-3 lead and their offense fell off after the Collins injury, who currently leads the NFL in receiving yards.
Furthermore, Patriots second-year CB Christian Gonzalez has turned into a true shut-down corner. He has the most targets (34) on their defense. Gonzalez allows a 50.0% completion rate and a 56.4 QB Rating, fourth among cornerbacks with 20+ targets. Without Collins on the field, Gonzalez could defend Houston WR Stefon Diggs, who is no longer a game-breaker.
The New England Patriots +7 over the Houston Texans is one of my Circa Million VI picks for NFL Week 6. (Photo credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)
Also, New England is getting an upgrade at quarterback, replacing Jacoby Brissett with the No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye. Brissett is 29th in QB Rating and not athletic enough to play in today's NFL. Maye, on the other hand, is sneaky athletic, which is needed because New England’s offensive line sucks.
Lastly, the Texans are 4-8-1 ATS as favorites since last year. As road favorites, Houston is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS with an -11.9 spread differential over that span. Maye will give the Patriots the boost they need, and the Texans will "play with their food" like they always do.
(LISTEN to Texans-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Bears (-2.5)
I wrote a standalone article giving out Chicago's -116 moneyline Friday. This is a contrarian play in the contest because a lot of people will take the Jaguars since they are down to +1 at several sportsbooks as of Saturday. Yet, I downgraded Jacksonville after its unimpressive win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, and the Bears have a better defense and quarterback.
(LISTEN to Jaguars-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Bengals at Giants (+3.5)
New York ruling out rookie phenom WR Malik Nabers Friday is an example of why it's dangerous to submit your contest picks Thursdays. Nabers suffered a concussion in NYG's 20-15 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 and still can't play Sunday. He was seen partying at a Travis Scott concert earlier this week, which is another conversation.
Nevertheless, the Giants beat the Seattle Seahawks 29-20 without Nabers and they could win again Sunday. NYG's pass rush is elite and Cincy's defense is soft. Plus, as I wrote in my Weekend Betting Guide for October 12-13, the Bengals are going from home underdogs in Week 5 to road favorites this week. Teams in those spots are 9-17-1 ATS since 2022.
Finally, because of the Nabers injury, everyone is betting Cincinnati Sunday. Usually, I'm not a "fade the public" guy, but it's profitable so far this season. That said, I'm talking myself into not being nervous about this pick because I took New York expecting Nabers would play.
(LISTEN to Bengals-Giants analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
I'll save most of my analysis for a deeper dive into this game Monday morning. The abbreviated version is I'm fading the Jets because they are a stupid organization making stupid decisions. NYJ fired former head coach Robert Saleh earlier this week because they are panicking about a 2-3 record.
However, the Jets have the best defense in the NFL since hiring Saleh, a defensive guy. They aren't meeting the owner's expectations because Aaron Rodgers has been a below-average quarterback through five games. I'm betting this decision-making will lead to an embarrassing performance on Monday Night Football.
(LISTEN to Bills-Jets analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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