Circa Million VI NFL Week 5 Picks Include Two Home 'Dogs, The London Game
Initially, I beat myself up after a second straight losing week in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest last week. Yet, after further contemplation, last week's 2-3 was worse luck than bad analysis. Several things needed to go wrong for the Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks to not cover as underdogs in Week 4, and they did.
The Browns and Seahawks had points taken off the board due to bogus officiating. Both made comically bad errors. Seattle WR D.K. Metcalf fumbled while fighting for extra yards on the Detroit Lions' side of the field and Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson threw an interception that hit WR Amari Cooper in the chest and fell into the Las Vegas Raiders' hands.
Week 4 Recap: 2-3
- Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) ❌
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) ✅
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) ❌
- Cleveland Browns (+1.5) ❌
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) ✅
Regardless, a wise man once said: "You are what your record says you are," and my record sucks. Through NFL Week 4, I'm 9-11 and tied for 2,823rd out of 5,816 players in the Circa Million VI. That said, a few favorable bounces here or there and I'd have a winning record. Maybe I'm in "loser denial", but I'm confident this thing will turn around.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 5 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
- Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Circa Million VI Pick #1: Ravens at Bengals (+2.5)
Instead of wasting more ink on this game, please check out my Weekend Betting Guide, standalone Ravens-Bengals article, or the podcast link below. Essentially, I'm fading Baltimore off of a huge win in primetime and buying stock in Cincy's offense given how well Joe Burrow is playing. Plus, Burrow and the Bengals are 18-8 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog.
(LISTEN to Ravens-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Green Bay Packers at Rams (+3.5)
This line is disrespectful to Matthew Stafford and Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay. Despite injuries to Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Stafford and McVay are good enough at their jobs to find offensive success against a Packers team that ranks 23rd in defensive success rate.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford rolls out to pass vs. the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Illinois. (Matt Marton-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Green Bay has a weak front seven and McVay is "coaching up" his injury-riddled offensive line. The Packers are 32nd in ESPN's pass-rush win rate and 30th in run-stop win rate and LAR is third in run-blocking win rate. Rams RB Kyren Williams had 94 rushing yards on 19 carries with a rushing touchdown last week vs. a strong Bears front seven.
The Packers have beaten the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. Big f*cking deal. There aren't "moral victories" in the NFL, so Green Bay's one-score losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings aren't impressive. Finally, Los Angeles has covered four of its past five games as home underdogs.
(LISTEN to Packers-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5)
This is one of the featured games in my Weekend Betting Guide. The TLDR version of that handicap is that Pittsburgh QB Justin Fields can run all over this god-awful Dallas rush defense, the Steelers bounce back well after losses as slight home favorites, and Pittsburgh's defensive front has a massive edge over the Cowboys' offensive line.
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Carolina Panthers at Bears (-3.5)
First of all, last week, Chicago was -3 favorites over the Rams, who are more than a half-point better than Carolina on a neutral field. Los Angeles is banged up, but so are the Panthers. They are missing six defensive starters and nose tackle Shy Tuttle is "questionable" for Week 5.
Considering that, this should be a get-right spot for Chicago's offense. Carolina is allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per game and Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams has completed a higher rate of passes in all four weeks. Williams' 106.6 QB Rating vs. LAR last week was a season-high.
The Chicago Bears -3.5 over the Carolina Panthers are one of my five picks for Week 5 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. (Matt Marton-Imagn Images)
According to NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen, the betting market says the Bears are 3.4 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field. Chicago is 2-0 straight up and ATS at home and should be -5 to -5.5 favorites. Nevertheless, there is good two-way betting action, keeping the spread at -3.5.
Ultimately, there is more positivity around Carolina because it looks like a competent team since replacing QB Bryce Young with QB Andy Dalton. But, the Bears are healthy, more talented, and have the best defense the Panthers have faced.
(LISTEN to Panthers-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: New York Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5)
I've gone back and forth between Minnesota and the Jacksonville Jaguars on this pick. I'm settling on the Vikings because Jacksonville's -2.5 spread over the Indianapolis Colts is fishier and the New York Jets will be more popular in the contest. The Jets are down to +2 at some sportsbooks, people will follow the line movement.
Also, Minnesota's defense has a huge edge in this matchup. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will find a way to scheme pressure vs. New York's offensive line, which ranks 26th in pass-blocking win rate, per ESPN. Aaron Rodgers can't extend plays with his legs anymore and will be a sitting duck back there.
The Denver Broncos sack New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers at MetLife Stadium. (Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images)
With that in mind, there's a chance Rodgers is washed. My biggest problem with Rodgers is he'd rather make an easy, short completion to Jets WR Allen Lazard to help his completion rate than give Pro Bowl WR Garrett Wilson a chance to make a big play vs. tough coverage. Well, Lazard is a No. 3 receiver and Wilson is a game-breaker.
Lastly, Minnesota's defense can make NYJ's offense one-dimensional. The Jets average 3.7 yards per rush and rank 29th in run-blocking win rate. While the Vikings allow 3.8 yards per carry on defense and rank fourth in run-stopping win rate.
(LISTEN to Jets-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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