Starting A New Circa Million VI Winning Streak With My NFL Week 4 Picks
All good things must end and that's what happened to ya boy last week in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. From November 2023 to Week 2, I didn't have a losing week in the NFL. I hate that I have to write it that way. But, I went 2-2-1 in Week 15 last season and split the 2023-24 conference championships.
Week 3 Recap: 1-4
- Tennessee Titans (-2) ❌
- Houston Texans (-2) ❌
- Baltimore Ravens (-1) ✅
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) ❌
- Chicago Bears (+1.5) ❌
Nonetheless, I was humbled in Week 3, losing my first four picks in the 1 p.m. window. Also, the Ravens tried to give away their 28-25 victory over the Cowboys last week with Dallas scoring 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Entering Week 4, I'm 7-8 in the Circa Million VI and tied for 2,305th out of 5,815 entries.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 4 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
- Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
- Ravens (-2.5)
Circa Million Pick #1: Washington Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5)
As I wrote in my Weekend Betting Guide for September 28-29, this is a perfect "sell-high" spot for the Commanders. They fly across the country for a second consecutive road game after rookie QB Jayden Daniels balled his a** off in a primetime game.
The Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over the Washington Commanders are my favorite pick in NFL Week 4 of the Circa Million VI. (Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)
Plus, Washington hasn't punted since Week 1, which is unsustainable. But, the Commanders need to have that kind of offensive success because they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is playing at a Pro Bowl caliber, and they are scoring at least 30 points Sunday.
(LISTEN to Commanders-Cardinals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Jaguars (+6) at Houston Texans
Believe it or not, this pick is more of a fade of Houston than a bet on Jacksonville. Sure, the Jaguars got crushed by the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 3. But, as I said in my Weekend Betting Guide for September 28-29, the Texans are putting QB C.J. Stroud in too many tough positions with poor early-down play-calling.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence drops back to pass on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in New York. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, since the Bills closed as -4.5 favorites vs. the Jaguars last week, the market is saying Houston is better than Buffalo, which we know is false. Finally, the Texans are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) this season and 3-7-1 ATS as favorites since last year.
(LISTEN to Jaguars-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Seahawks (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
This is part of a Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader. For content purposes, I'll save most of my Seahawks-Lions analysis for a deeper dive Sunday. The abbreviated version is Seattle first-year head coach Mike Macdonald is a defensive wizard, Detroit QB Jared Goff is playing horribly, and Seahawks QB Geno Smith has balled up the Lions the past two years.
(LISTEN to Seahawks-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Browns (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is my fourth pick because I could see Cleveland being popular this week. The Browns are -2 favorites as of Saturday afternoon, and people will select Cleveland because of the contest's 3.5 points of value. However, I'm moving forward with the Browns because of Las Vegas's defense and injury report, and an overreaction to Cleveland's ugly Week 3 loss.
Raiders WR Davante Adams being ruled out and pass rusher Maxx Crosby being "doubtful" to play are why money is coming in on the Browns. Adams and Crosby are Vegas's only good players. The Raiders are 31st in yards per rush allowed, last in defensive pressure rate, and 24th in opponent's QB Rating.
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson scrambles vs. the New York Giants at Huntington Bank Field in Ohio. (Photo credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)
Everyone is crapping on Cleveland because it lost at home to the New York Giants last week. Yet, Las Vegas lost at home to the Panthers Sunday, and Carolina was the lowest power-rating team in the market entering Week 3. Ultimately, those losses negate each other and I make the Browns 5.0 points better than the Raiders on a neutral field.
(LISTEN to Browns-Raiders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Buffalo Bills at Ravens (-2.5)
Originally, I had the Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) over the New Orleans Saints as my fifth pick in Week 4. But, I'm using "game theory" here based on a hunch that the Falcons and Bills (+2.5) will be top-five consensus picks this week. The top-five picks are 4-11 in the first three weeks of the Circa Million VI.
More importantly, I'd feel better about losing with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh as -2.5 home favorites than Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins and first-year Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, if that makes sense.
The Baltimore Ravens over the Buffalo Bills squeezed out the Atlanta Falcons as my final pick in Week 4 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. (Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images)
Bills-Ravens was featured in my Weekend Betting Guide for September 28-29, so click the link for football-based analysis. Baltimore has a strength-on-weakness edge in rushing and has played a tough schedule, while Buffalo has played a cupcake schedule.
(LISTEN to Bills-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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