Circa Million VI NFL Week 3 Picks From A Gambler On An Epic Winning Streak
I'll pat myself on the back for finishing 3-2 in Week 2 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. Not only did I start 0-1 after losing the Thursday Night Football game, but I also successfully avoided the carnage in Week 2. Underdogs went 8-7 straight up (SU) and 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
Week 2 Recap: 3-2
- Cleveland Browns +3 ✅
- Los Angeles Rams +1 ❌
- Miami Dolphins -3 ❌
- Chicago Bears +6.5 ✅
- Las Vegas Raiders +8 ✅
Fortunately, I had four underdogs on my card. As a result, through the first two weeks of the Circa Million VI, I'm 6-4 and tied for 506th out of 5,814 entries. I'm seeing the board well and haven't had a losing week since Week 9 of last season. With that in mind, I'm calling my shot: 5-0 in NFL Week 3.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 3 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Tennessee Titans -2
- Houston Texans -2
- Baltimore Ravens -1
- Los Angeles Chargers +1.5
- Chicago Bears +1.5
Circa Million Pick #1: Green Bay Packers at Titans (-2)
Here's the TLDR version of what I wrote about Packers-Titans earlier this week: The market is too low on Tennessee because of brain farts by Titans QB Will Levis in the first two weeks. The Titans are +0.7 in yards per play differential vs. two teams I picked to make the playoffs this season, the Bears and New York Jets. Tennessee can stop Green Bay's ground game and Packers backup QB Malik Willis cannot move the ball through the air.
The Tennessee Titans are my favorite pick in Week 3 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. (Photo Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images)
(LISTEN to Packers-Titans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
_____________________________
Pick #2: Texans (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
Firstly, Minnesota's 2-0 SU and ATS records are very fade-able. The Vikings beat the dumpster-fire New York Giants in Week 1 and a banged-up San Francisco 49ers team last week. Also, Houston has the best offensive personnel in the NFL. Finally, the Texans can make Minnesota's offense one-dimensional. Last year, Houston was second in yards per rush allowed and has an awesome front seven.
(LISTEN to Texans-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
_____________________________
Pick #3: Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
This is a featured game in my Weekend Betting Guide for September 21-22. Essentially, Baltimore has the better quarterback (Lamar Jackson), coach (John Harbaugh), defense, and special teams. Plus, the Ravens have a massive strength-on-weakness edge over the Cowboys in the rushing department.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson takes off against the Las Vegas Raiders at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)
(LISTEN to Ravens-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
_____________________________
Pick #4: Chargers (+1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
That "Chargers are cursed" sh*t is over now that Jim Harbaugh is their head coach. Harbaugh has turned around every football program he has taken over. Stanford went 1-11 the year before hiring Harbaugh in 2006 and won 12 games in his final season in Palo Alto. The 49ers went 6-10 in 2010, hired Harbaugh in 2011 and went 13-3. Michigan won five games the year before Harbaugh in 2014, then 10 games in his first year.
Also, Los Angeles's offensive line can hold up against Pittsburgh's defensive line. Chargers LT Rashawn Slater is one of the best tackles in the NFL. LA rookie RT Joe Alt is the No. 5 overall pick in this year's draft and looks like a future Pro Bowler. If they can keep Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt from wreaking havoc, the Chargers will win Sunday.
The Los Angeles Chargers covering against the Pittsburgh Steelers is one of my five picks in NFL Week 3 of the Circa Million VI contest. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)
LAC's defense caught a bad rap because former head coach Brandon Staley sucked. The Chargers still have talent on their defense, including two top-20 pass rushers, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. More importantly, Pittsburgh QB Justin Fields is basically a backup whereas Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is a franchise quarterback.
Lastly, the Chargers have better playmakers. Los Angeles RB J.K. Dobbins leads the NFL in rushing yards. Chargers WRs Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey are better than Steelers WRs George Pickens, Calvin Austin III, and Van Jefferson. Herbert is dealing with a high ankle sprain but, even so, Los Angeles has more ways it can score.
(LISTEN to Chargers-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
_____________________________
Pick #5: Bears (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
There is value on Chicago because it looked horrible in a 19-13 loss on Sunday Night Football vs. the Texans in Week 2. However, the Colts lost 16-10 to the Packers with a backup quarterback starting. Green Bay's game plan was obvious — establish the run — yet, Indianapolis had no answers: The Packers rushed for 261 yards on 56 carries.
Besides a couple of big-time throws, Colts second-year QB Anthony Richardson is playing poorly. He leads the NFL in interceptions (4) and has a 49.1% completion rate. Again, Indy only scored 10 points last week despite rushing for 7.8 yards per carry. The Colts should've scored 20+ points with that kind of running efficiency.
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams scrambles out of the pocket against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, the Bears should have an easier time moving the ball against Indianapolis's defense, which has been on the field for 80+ minutes in the first two weeks. With Colts DT DeForest Buckner on the IR, Indy has one of the worst front sevens in the NFL. While Chicago's first two opponents, the Titans and Texans, have fantastic front sevens.
Ultimately, I'm sticking with my "preseason priors" for the Bears. I'm one of the biggest shareholders of rookie QB Caleb Williams' stock and I have Chicago winning the NFC North this season. We are getting a good number for the Bears because they laid an egg in primetime last week. But, in reality, Indianapolis played a worse game vs. an easier opponent in Week 2.
(LISTEN to Bears-Colts analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.