Circa Million VI NFL Week 2 Picks From A Bettor Who Hasn't Lost Since November 2023
Even though my preseason predictions look terrible after NFL Week 1, I scratched out a 3-2 start to the Circa Million VI handicapping contest, and I should've gone 4-1. The New York Giants +1 pick vs. the Minnesota Vikings was a disgrace, but my three winners were clearly the "right side".
Week 1 recap: 3-2
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5 ✅
- New York Giants +1 ❌
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 ✅
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 ✅
- Los Angeles Rams +3.5 ❌
My Los Angeles Rams +3.5 pick lost when the Detroit Lions beat them 26-20 in overtime. Whenever I lose with an underdog in overtime, I count it as a "bad beat". For what it's worth, I haven't had a losing record in the NFL since Week 9 of last season. Unfortunately, I'm beginning NFL Week 2 in a 0-1 hole thanks to the Miami Dolphins.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 2 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Cleveland Browns +3
- Los Angeles Rams +1
- Miami Dolphins -3 ❌
- Chicago Bears +6.5
- Las Vegas Raiders +8
Circa Million Pick #1: Browns (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland +3.5 was the first bet I made in NFL Week 2. I still like it at +3 because the Browns were +1 underdogs in the look-ahead line this summer, and this spread is an overreaction to Week 1. The Dallas Cowboys whooped Cleveland 33-17. But, the Cowboys have won 12 games in three straight seasons and have legit superstars. Hence, I'm willing to chalk up Cleveland's Week 1 clunker.
Dallas Cowboys pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons chase Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson at Huntington Bank Field in Ohio. (Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)
Moreover, the Browns are better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Cleveland LT Jack Conklin is trending toward playing Sunday. The Jaguars were 26th in pass-rush win rate and 28th in run-stop win rate vs. the Dolphins in Week 1, according to ESPN. Myles Garrett can be a game-wrecker against Jacksonville's weak offensive line.
(LISTEN to Browns-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Rams (+1) at Arizona Cardinals
Sure, the Rams have cluster injuries on their offensive line. However, Los Angeles has the better quarterback, coach, and defense. Plus, the Cardinals are the perfect team for the Rams to play because Arizona has a bottom-five defensive line in the NFL. Either way, I trust Rams head coach Sean McVay and QB Matt Stafford to come up with a game plan for this bad Cardinals defense.
McVay is 7-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread in his career in Arizona with a +16.1 scoring margin. Stafford is 4-1 SU against the Cardinals since going to Los Angeles in 2021. He has a 69.9% completion rate with 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 111.3 QB Rating in those games.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws a touchdown while under pressure against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. (Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)
Also, Stafford put on a clinic in Week 1 vs. Detroit. He completed 69.4% of his passes (34-for-49) despite being pressured on 31.4% of dropbacks. Detroit’s defensive line is much better than Arizona’s. Per ESPN, the Cardinals had the worst pass-rush win rate in the NFL last week. From a clean pocket, Stafford will carve up Arizona’s secondary.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 1-7 SU in his career vs. the Rams with a 62.6% completion rate, 8 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and an 81.2 QB Rating. LA's defense played well before getting run over by the Lions in the 26-20 overtime loss. Yet, Arizona's offensive line cannot push around the Rams like Detroit's. Between their familiarity with Kyler and underrated talent, the Rams can stop the Cardinals when they need to.
(LISTEN to Rams-Cardinals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Buffalo Bills at Dolphins (-3)
The Bills punked the Dolphins 31-10 on Thursday Night Football, and I'm 0-2 going into Sunday of Week 2. It sucks and I overthought this pick. I had Miami regressing this season and Buffalo winning the AFC East. That said, between roster turnover and Miami's health, I thought the Dolphins would finally beat the Bills.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles away from Miami Dolphins DT Zach Sieler during Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 2 at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, I didn't like a lot of games this week and I went 7-0 last year on Thursday Night Football picks in the Circa Million V. Instead of overanalyzing the rest of the slate, I decided to submit my Week 2 card early. The other teams I considered using this week included the Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
(LISTEN to Bills-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Bears (+6.5) at Houston Texans
DraftKings made Houston a -3.5 favorite over Chicago in its look-ahead line this summer. After the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 29-27 in Week 1 and the Bears beat the Tennessee Titans 24-17 without scoring an offensive touchdown, Houston is now -6.5. That's too much of an overreaction.
Firstly, Chicago’s defense has enough talent to matchup with Houston’s offense. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson was Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest graded cornerback last season and in Week 1. Johnson will be tasked with covering Texans No. 1 WR Nico Collins Sunday.
Chicago LB T.J. Edwards has been a top-20 linebacker at PFF, out of 80+ qualifying linebackers, in his first five seasons (ranked 23rd after Week 1). Bears edge rusher Montez Sweat is a "force multiplier" and the offensive line was a weak spot for Houston last season.
Bears QB Caleb Williams throws a pass vs. the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Andrew Nelles/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Look, as one of the biggest Bears QB Caleb Williams fans out there, I know his Week 1 performance was ugly. I don’t have any excuses for that outing since I didn’t think much of Tennessee’s defense entering the season and still don’t. But, the essence of betting NFL is fading recent results and overreactions. And, as uncomfortable as it may be, the Bears will probably find a way to finish "inside the number".
Finally, Houston’s defensive line got run over last week. According to ESPN, the Texans were 24th in pass-rush win rate and dead-last in run-stop win rate. Granted, Indianapolis's offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Nonetheless, the Bears were fifth in pass-block win rate and second in run-block win rate last season.
(LISTEN to Bears-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Raiders (+8) at Baltimore Ravens
I added the Raiders to my Week 2 betting card because they have an edge in the trenches, their underrated pass catchers going against a Baltimore defense I thought would regress this year, and everyone clowning on Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce for cowardly punting the ball on 4th-and-1 on the Los Angeles's side of the field down six in the fourth quarter of a 22-10 loss to the Chargers last week.
The Ravens have three new offensive line starters this year, and it showed in Week 1 against the Chiefs. Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby should be in the backfield all day Sunday, and Las Vegas DT Christian Wilkins can feast on Baltimore's interior offensive line.
Las Vegas QB Gardner Minshew can make some throws if given time. Minshew had a better EPA/play plus completion rate over expectation than Lamar Jackson in Week 1. Raiders WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, and rookie TE Brock Bowers are legit weapons and the Ravens lost three defensive coaches this offseason.
Pierce deserved to get dragged for that weak a** punt decision last week. But, this is Pierces's first full season as a head coach, and he can use this as a learning experience. Given the ridicule, it's likely Pierce will be more aggressive with his playcalling against Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is sacked by Raiders DE Maxx Crosby at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)
This is a sandwich spot for the Ravens. They played in the NFL Kickoff Game against the reigning Super Bowl champions and will face the Cowboys, Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals in the next three games. With that in mind, Las Vegas will be more up for this game than Baltimore. Lastly, between motivation and skill-position players, there is backdoor cover potential for the Raiders.
(LISTEN to Raiders-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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