Circa Million VI NFL Week 14 Picks: Trying To Capitalize On Another Thursday Win
I pray that the lord, Jesus Christ, can deliver me from these losing weeks in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. I was 2-3 last week and I know I’m better than that even though I cannot prove it this year. Entering Week 14, I'm 30-35 in the Circa Million, which ties me for 3,836th out of 5,816 entries.
- Chicago Bears (+9.5) ✅
- Miami Dolphins (+3) ❌
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) ✅
- Baltimore Ravens (-3) ❌
- Tennessee Titans (+6) ❌
That said, I have an outside chance of making money in the "4th Quarter" contest, running from Week 14-18. Circa awards $300,000 in these quarterlies, with first place bringing home a cool $150,000. I'm off to a good start in the last quarter, correctly picking the Thursday Night Football game for the 14th time in 16 attempts since 2023.
The Week 14 spreads for the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VI NFL Week 14 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Green Bay Packers (+3.5) ✅
- Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (+3.5)
- Chicago Bears (+4)
Circa Million Pick #1: Packers (+3.5) at Detroit Lions ✅
The Thursday Night Football game continues to be a cash cow for me. Since last season, I'm 14-2 in Circa Million picks for Thursday games after hitting Green Bay +3.5 over Detroit earlier this week. The Lions beat the Packers with a walk-off field goal in a 34-31 thriller.
(LISTEN to Packers-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Bengals (-6) at Dallas Cowboys
I'm not worried about this being a "flat spot" for Cincinnati since it's Monday Night Football. Cincy's season is most likely over, but teams have pre-production meetings with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I could see Aikman, an NFL Hall of Famer, busting Joe Burrow's balls about his 4-8 record.
Burrow is in the prime of his career and the Bengals have no business being 4-8. They have seven one-score losses. If Cincinnati won a few of these coin-flip games, Burrow would be the favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP season right now. He leads the league in passing yards per game (287.1) and passing TDs (30).
Hence, I'm expecting Burrow to take his anger out on the Cowboys Monday. Bengals WRs Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are in contract seasons, so they'll be trying to. Essentially, Burrow and Co. should put up 30 points in this game and Cowboys second-string QB Cooper Rush won't be able to keep up.
Also, Dallas's win over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving was meaningless. It probably gives the betting public the impression the Cowboys aren't that bad when they are. The Giants are literally the worst team in the NFL currently. Yet, Dallas needed a spectacular pick-six from NYG journeyman QB Drew Lock to cover as -4 home favorites.
Lastly, the Texans were -7 road favorites in their 34-10 win over the Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 11, and Houston isn't a full point better than Cincinnati. Frankly, anything less than "Bengals -7" is disrespectful.
(LISTEN to Bengals-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons at Vikings (-5.5)
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is washed and this is an awful matchup for him. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores knows Cousins' strengths and weaknesses from being on the same team last season. Flores is one of the best defensive minds in the league and Cousins is too old to play in the modern-day NFL.
I've made more money fading Cousins than I have betting on or against any other quarterback during his career. So, take my word for it, this is a game Cousins doesn't win or cover. He's gotten squashed by every good defense he's faced this year, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers.
With all due respect to Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris, who I like, Minnesota has a huge edge in coaching. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell is a great playcaller, and he has a bevy of offensive talent, including the pound-for-pound best wide receiver in football, Justin Jefferson. Plus, the Falcons have the worst pass rush in the NFL, and the worst opponent's completion rate.
(LISTEN to Falcons-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Buffalo Bills at Rams (+3.5)
This is a good old Fading a team that dominated in primetime the week prior NFL handicapping angle. Buffalo smashed the San Francisco 49ers 35-10 on Sunday Night Football last week. Bills QB Josh Allen became the odds-on favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP. Meaning, this is the most expensive the Bills have been all season.
Buffalo was a -1 favorite over LAR on the look-ahead line posted by DraftKings this summer. But, the gap between these teams hasn't grown by 2.5 points. Allen playing like a superstar shouldn't be surprising. The Rams lost a couple of close games to the Lions and Packers. Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were hurt earlier this season, and they are healthy now.
The Los Angeles Rams +3.5 over the Buffalo Bills is one of my five picks in Week 14 of the Circa Million NFL handicapping contest. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
The Bills are more of a finesse team you can run the ball against. They are 30th in yards per rush allowed on defense. The Rams have struggled on third down recently. However, they'll have more success on third down Sunday because Buffalo struggles vs. the run, which is why it's 20th in third-down conversion rate allowed on defense.
Ultimately, I could live with the Bills as -2 or -2.5 favorites. However, this spread is on the wrong side of -3 because Rams QB Matt Stafford can keep up with Allen, Rams head coach Sean McVay and Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott are a wash, and the Bills aren't physical enough to bully LAR.
(LISTEN to Bills-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Bears (+4) at San Francisco 49ers
One of the NFL's universal laws is that Super Bowl losers regress the following season, which appears to be the case with the 49ers. They are missing RB, and 2023-24 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey, All-Pro pass rusher Nick Bosa, All-Pro LT Trent Williams, and No. 1 WR Brandon Aiyuk in Week 14.
The Bears could get the "new head coach" boost from firing Matt Eberflus after their loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Supposedly, Chicago's locker room hated Eberflus. The Bears' offense played better once interim head coach Thomas Brown replaced former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron before Week 11.
Brown can get promoted to full-time head coach if Chicago wins games down the stretch. Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams has been ballin' since Brown took over playcalling duties, which is the most important thing to Brown's head coaching tryout. Williams has a 99.2 QB Rating, 5 TDs, and no interceptions over the last three games.
(LISTEN to Bears-49ers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.