Getting Weird In Circa Million VI NFL Week 12 By Taking 3 Last-Place Teams
I have a feeling the NFL will be crazy in Week 12. It began with the Cleveland Browns upsetting the red-hot Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday in the first "snow game" of the season. Between all the home underdogs and all the big spreads, people will have to bet sketchy teams this week. Or at least that's the theme for my Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest picks for Week 12.
Week 11 Recap: 3-2
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4) ✅
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) ✅
- Chicago Bears (+5.5) ✅
- New York Jets (-4) ❌
- Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) ❌
Moreover, I need to start going ultra-contrarian if I want to make up ground in this contest. Entering NFL Week 12, I'm 27-28 and tied for 2,547th out of 5,816 entries. That said, I've had back-to-back 3-2 weeks and I could've easily been 4-1 in both. Maybe I'm just playing for pride, but I'm due for an epic heater.
Circa Million VI NFL Week 12 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
- Arizona Cardinals (Pick 'Em)
- New England Patriots (+7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+6)
- Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Circa Million Pick #1: Baltimore Ravens at Chargers (+2.5)
DraftKings made Baltimore -3 favorites over LAC on the summer look-ahead line for this game. Yet, the Ravens are slightly worse than their preseason projections and the Chargers are much better. Baltimore's defense regressed year over year due to the loss of some defensive coaches. The Ravens are 21st in points per play allowed on defense.
First-year Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh hasn't missed a beat since returning to the NFL. The Chargers are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have a higher scoring margin than the Ravens. LAC's defense is playing with its hair on fire. The Chargers lead the NFL in points per play allowed and rank fourth in sack rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 is my favorite pick vs. the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 12 of the Circa Million VI. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)
The market hasn't appropriately adjusted to Baltimore being worse than last year's team and LAC being better. Last year, the Ravens were -3 favorites over the Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. The Ravens were 8-3 entering that game and had a rest advantage and the Chargers were 4-6 with former head coach Brandon Staley, who got fired a few weeks later.
Baltimore beat Los Angeles 20-10, but it scored a 37-yard touchdown with 1:36 remaining to frontdoor cover. So, the Ravens got lucky to cover despite the Chargers being -4 in turnover differential. Essentially, if Baltimore was -3 vs. LAC last season then this game should be a pick 'em.
(LISTEN to Ravens-Chargers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Cardinals (Pick 'em) at Seattle Seahawks
I'm looking to fade the Seahawks after they upset the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 as +6 road underdogs last week. That was more of the Niners losing than Seattle winning.
The Niners are banged up: QB Brock Purdy and pass rusher Nick Bosa will miss their critical game vs. the Green Bay Packers this week. Also, per head coach Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco's offense failed to capitalize on opportunities.
The Cardinals are coming off a bye after embarrassing the New York Jets 31-6 in Week 10. Arizona's defense is mediocre, to below average, but Seattle's offense is one-dimensional. The Seahawks have the third-highest pass rate over expectation, according to Nefloapp.com. Hence, it's easier for the Cardinals to create an effective game plan with extra preparation time.
The Arizona Cardinals on a "pick 'em" is my second favorite pick for Week 12 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping contest. (Michael Chow/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Arizona has a strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. The Cardinals are second in yards per rush and the Seahawks are 26th in yards per rush allowed on defense. Arizona's Kyler Murray is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the NFL and James Conner is the seventh-best graded running back in the league, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Lastly, the Cardinals are still underrated. They are the 17th-highest power-rated team in the market, according to Inpredictable.com despite being sixth in net yards per play vs. the second-toughest schedule, per TeamRankings.com.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Patriots (+7) at Miami Dolphins
I like betting teams who just lost ATS vs. teams that just won ATS. New England lost at home to the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 last week as +4 underdogs. But, the "noise-canceled score", looking at just raw efficiency, was 30-28 in favor of LA last week, according to PFF. I.e., New England played well enough to cover but got unlucky.
Meanwhile, the public will hammer Miami after cruising past the Raiders 34-19 as -8 home favorites last week and upsetting the Rams 23-15 as +2 road underdogs on Monday Night Football in Los Angeles two weeks ago. Plus, the Dolphins' only win during QB Tua Tagovailoa's four-game absence from Week 3-7 was over the Patriots, 15-10, on the road in Week 5.
More importantly, I liked Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye coming into the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye has flashed potential since becoming New England's starter in Week 6 and the film guys on NFL social media rave about him. He has improved his QBR in all five games he's played in full. Unlike QB Rating, QBR takes into account a quarterback’s running production.
Maye has six starts but got knocked out of his NFL Week 8 game vs. the New York Jets after 20 snaps. Against the Jets, Maye had a 94.5 QBR. He only attempted six passes, but Maye had 3 carries for 46 yards and 1 rushing TD. Ultimately, Maye has the arm talent and athleticism to be a franchise QB in today's NFL, and I'll take the Patriots +7 with him under center.
(LISTEN to Patriots-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Denver Broncos at Raiders (+6)
This is just a gut-feel pick. On the summer look-ahead line, DraftKings made Las Vegas a -3 favorite over Denver here, and a nine-point swing is massive. Is it warranted? Perhaps. Nonetheless, "Broncos -6" is a big number for rookie QB Bo Nix on the road in a division game.
The Raiders were about to go up 14 points vs. the Broncos in Week 5 until Las Vegas QB Gardner Minshew threw a 100-yard pick-six to Denver QB Patrick Surtain II in the second quarter. Denver ended up winning 34-18, but Las Vegas had more total yards (330-289) and converted more first downs (20-18) in that game.
The Broncos will be one of the most popular picks this week in the contest, and popular picks tend to lose. Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce has his team ready to play after losses. The Raiders are 7-4-1 ATS following a loss with a +4.8 spread differential since last season.
(LISTEN to Broncos-Raiders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Kansas City Chiefs at Panthers (+10.5)
Originally, I had the 49ers on my Circa Million Week 12 card, until they got bit by the injury bug. So, I went with the Panthers instead because this could be a let-down game for the Chiefs, who had their undefeated season end in a 30-21 loss at the Buffalo Bills last week.
Kansas City has lost four straight ATS, and its past two wins came on the final play of the game. The Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS as favorites -6.5 or greater this year. On top of that, this is Carolina's Super Bowl whereas KC is trying to be the first NFL team to threepeat. Basically, the Panthers will be up for this game, and I'm not sure about the Chiefs' motivation.
(LISTEN to Chiefs-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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