Circa Million VI NFL Week 10 Selections Include Sunday, Monday Night Football
At this point, I'll need to go nuts to make money in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest since the top 100 entries get paid at the end of the season. Entering NFL Week 10, my record is 21-24, and I'm tied for 3,250th out of 5,816 entries. Thankfully, the 3rd Quarter of the Circa Million VI begins this week, so I can make money without finishing inside the top 100.
Week 9 Recap: 2-3
- Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) ❌
- Green Bay Packers (+3) ❌
- Dallas Cowboys (+3) ❌
- Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) ✅
- Carolina Panthers (+7) ✅
Circa Million VI NFL Week 10 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Cincinnati Bengals (+6) ✅
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
- Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
- Houston Texans (+3.5)
Circa Million VI Pick #2: Bengals (+6) at Baltimore Ravens ✅
I got my money back after losing with "Cincinnati +2.5" at home 41-38 in overtime to Baltimore in NFL Week 5. Bengals-Ravens Part II was as epic as their first meeting. Yet, again, Baltimore rallied from a double-digit second-half lead to beat Cincy 35-34 on Thursday Night Football (TNF).
The Cincinnati Bengals +6 vs. the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 10 is my favorite pick in the Circa Million VI. (Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images)
Most successful NFL contest players won't use TNF games because you must submit all your picks simultaneously. By doing so, you don't have the most up-to-date odds and injury reports. However, I'm now 10-1 on TNF games used in the Circa Million dating back to last year, so I'll continue ignoring that advice when I see fit.
(LISTEN to Bengals-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #2: Steelers (+2.5) at Washington Commanders
Tom Bliss, a senior manager and data scientist of football operations at the NFL, produces a chart of "Win probability added via luck" weekly on X. Those luck factors include dropped passes and interceptions, field goal and fumble recovery luck. Per Bliss, Washington is second in win probability added via luck, and no one out luck-boxes Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin.
Also, between S Minkah Fitz and LB Patrick Queen, the Steelers have enough speed in the middle of their defense to contain Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. Pittsburgh plays Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson twice a season. It held Broncos QB Bo Nix to 25 rushing yards, Colts QB Anthony Richardson to 23 rushing yards, and Giants QB Dan Jones to 1 rushing yard this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin yelling on the sideline vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia. (Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)
The Steelers were off last week and have extra time to prepare. Since 2018, they are 6-0 straight up (SU) and 5-1 against the spread (ATS) following a bye week with a +6.1 spread differential. Washington's defense is 30th in yards per rush allowed and Pittsburgh has the second-highest rushing rate in the NFL.
Lastly, the Steelers are first in the AFC North and are playing with house money. If Tomlin can get QB Russell Wilson to play at 75% of his prime, Pittsburgh can beat anyone in the AFC. And if there is one thing Tomlin excels at, it's getting the most out of his players.
(LISTEN to Steelers-Commanders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #3: Denver Broncos at Chiefs (-8)
Usually, it's square to bet big spreads, especially the Chiefs, who are 27-2 SU, but 14-14-1 ATS as favorites of -7.5 or greater since 2020. Nonetheless, KC won't be popular in the contest because of that well-known trend, and my numbers say the Chiefs should be at least double-digit favorites.
The Ravens closed as -9 favorites vs. the Broncos last week in the Circa Million and Kansas City is better than Baltimore. In fact, the Chiefs are better than everyone, and they are underrated since they don't cover these big spreads. After all, KC is 8-0 and trying to become the first NFL team to threepeat as Super Bowl champions.
Plus, trading for WR DeAndre Hopkins completes Kansas City's offense. Hopkins caught 8 balls for 86 yards and 2 TDs in his second game as a Chief in a 30-24 Week 9 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. D-Hop is only 32 years old and can still be a high-level No. 1 WR for a good quarterback.
The Kansas City Chiefs -8 vs. the Denver Broncos is my third favorite pick in NFL Week 10 of the Circa Million VI. (Denny Medley-Imagn Images)
People forget Hopkins is a five-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro while playing with terrible quarterbacks for most of his career. Well, Patrick Mahomes is the best NFL quarterback and I trust that Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes can make Hopkins an elite weapon again.
Finally, the Chiefs can make Denver's offense one-dimensional: KC's defense is second in yards per rush allowed (3.7). If the Chiefs can stop his ground game, I'll take my chances with Nix beating me in the air. Nix is 29th in QB Rating and 30th in passing success rate.
(LISTEN to Broncos-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #4: Miami Dolphins at Rams (-1.5)
I'll save my powder for a deeper dive into this game, publishing Monday morning. Ultimately, the Rams have the better QB, coach, defense, and special teams. Surely, Los Angeles will be a popular pick this week. But, the Rams were popular in Week 9 when I correctly picked them to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Since they should be at least -3 here, I'll use the Rams again.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Pick #5: Detroit Lions at Texans (+3.5)
This is an example of why it's generally smarter to wait until the deadline before submitting your picks. I gambled on Houston WR Nico Collins returning from IR and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. playing Sunday. But, as of Saturday afternoon, I'm not confident Collins or Anderson will play.
I'm 0-6 in the Circa Million VI fading the Lions. That said, I'm bound to be right once this season. (Just kidding, kind of). Seriously though, Detroit is 7-1 SU and ATS, which will regress eventually. I hope/think. The Lions were out-gained in total yards in four of their wins, and they are the fourth-most aggressive team on fourth down.
These teams are equal in net yards per play, the Texans closed as -1.5 favorites in their 23-20 home win over the Bills in Week 5, and Detroit isn't 5.0 points better than Buffalo. Granted, Collins played in Week 5, but Houston was missing RB Joe Mixon, who has been fantastic this season.
The public has been crushing lately, and the Lions are the darlings of the NFL. I'm assuming Detroit will be in everyone's moneyline parlays and sportsbooks will "need" the Texans to cover the spread Sunday. Typically, in sports betting, you want to be on the same side as The House.
(LISTEN to Lions-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.