Circa Million IV NFL Week 9 Picks

Week 8 in my Geoffrow Record Circa Million IV entry was salvaged by a last-second decision to forgo a Cincinnati Bengals pick, going with Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football instead.

Week 8 Recap (3-2):

I moved up in the Circa Million IV standings to a tie for 920th out of 4,680 players with a 22-16-2 record. There's still a lot of work that needs to be done to get into the money. But, we are headed in the right direction ...

Circa Million IV NFL Week 9 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (+5)

This was the 1st bet I made this week. Not only did I get down on Chicago's spread with a cash bet, but I locked in a "pizza bet" with the homie, Dan Zaksheske on this week's OutKick Bets With Geoff Clark podcast.

READ: ‘Sharps’ Backing Bears Over Dolphins And You Should Too

My main handicapping angle for Dolphins-Bears is the mis-pricing of the line. Miami closed as 3.5-point road favorites at the Detroit Lions in Week 8 and we're getting +5 in Chicago Sunday.

There's no effing way the Lions are 1.5 points better than the Bears. Especially considering how well Chicago's offense and QB Justin Fields have kept the chains moving lately.

Buffalo Bills (-12.5) at New York Jets

The Bills beat the shit out of bad teams and the oddsmakers are saying the Jets are bad. It's rare that a team with a winning record is a double-digit underdog.

Favorites of 10+ points vs. winning teams have covered 11 of their last 12. It's even rarer those are double-digit road favorites visiting teams above-.500.

In fact, the last time that happened was in 2007 when the 15-0 New England Patriots visited the New York Giants in Week 17. The 10-5 Giants covered as 13.5-point home underdogs in a 38-35 loss. We all remember how that turned out.

READ: BET: Bills Will Humble An Overrated Jets Squad Sunday

And, as I discussed earlier this week, over the last five-plus seasons, double-digit favorites vs. teams with a winning record after Week 8 are 6-0 ATS with a +10.8 ATS margin.

Essentially, the sportsbooks are calling the Jets frauds that will get exposed in Week 9. Oddsmakers are begging for Jets action. Let's lay the lumber with the Bills.

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This one is more of a gut feeling that Jacksonville is overrated because of analytics sites. The Jaguars have a plus-point differential on the season and have better efficiency metrics.

But, the 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars are somehow overrated due to misleading statistics. The Jaguars were amazing in their two wins and found crazy ways to lose the other six games.

Storytime ...

The Jaguars choked Week 1 to the Carson Wentz-led Washington Commanders 28-22 as 3-point underdogs despite having a +2 turnover margin. Their current 5-game losing skid has been a roller coaster ride.

Jacksonville squandered a double-digit first-half lead at the Philadelphia Eagles in a 29-21 Week 5 loss. The Jags outgained the Houston Texans by nearly 200 total yards in Week 6 and lost 13-9.

In Week 6, Colts QB Matt Ryan had his best game of the season in Indy’s 34-27 win vs. Jacksonville. Ryan has since been benched.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence runs the ball alongside RB Travis Etienne during the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

A red zone turnover by Jaguars RB Travis Etienne led to Jacksonville’s 23-17 loss to the New York Giants in Week 7.

Last weekend, in London, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence imploded in the second half of Jacksonville’s 21-17 loss to the lowly Denver Broncos.

What's the moral of this story? The Jaguars still suck.

The Raiders' losses feel more excusable. Aside from a no-show last week at the New Orleans Saints, Vegas could've won all its other games. Also, Vegas should get back Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller. He almost played last week but was ruled out last minute.

Regardless of what the stats say, a healthy Raiders team is better than the Jaguars by my eye. Jacksonville's disappointing season will get worse after a Week 9 loss to Vegas.

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati's Week 9 injury report is a hellscape of bad things for the Bengals. They have cluster injuries in their secondary and DT D.J. Reader (not listed) was sent to the IR weeks ago. Reader was Cincy's highest-graded player, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

The Cincinnati Bengals' Week 9 injury report is courtesy of the team's website.

Also, Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase's absence leaves doubt in my mind about their offense. Sure, Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is an alpha. However, with no deep threat, Cincy's offense isn't scary.

I give further analysis when breaking it down with Dan Z on the "11 NFL Week 9 Locks" episode of the OutKick Bets With Geoff Clark podcast.

But, I like how this Panthers team has played under interim head coach Steve Wilks and the Bengals, with their injuries, feel too expensive.

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (+2.5)

Speaking of "cluster injuries," the Ravens are rife with them. Baltimore Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews left last week's game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with an injury and didn't return.

Second-year Ravens WR Rashod Bateman is now out for the season; RB Gus Edwards hasn't practiced all week and neither has Andrews.

Furthermore, Saints MLB Demario Davis is one of the best guys to defend Lamar Jackson. According to PFF, Davis is the best linebacker in the NFL out of 81 linebackers graded.

Davis is the quarterback of New Orleans' defense and his job will be a lot easier against this shell of a Baltimore offense.

New Orleans Saints Demario Davis celebrates with the rest of the defense after recovering a fumble by Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

That said, my one concern is Saints QB Andy Dalton who's a known primetime choker. Dalton in primetime is the prequel to Kirk Cousins in primetime.

However, NOLA first-year head coach Dennis Allen made Dalton the starter regardless of Jameis Winston's health because Dalton turns the ball over less.

And, if you remove turnovers, the Saints are 3rd in offensive expected points added per play. New Orleans has weapons in the offense and is 2nd in net success rate behind the Bills.

Finally, this is a Pros (Saints) vs. Joe's (Ravens) game in the betting market. Per Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the money in the consensus market is on New Orleans, while nearly 60% of the public is betting on Baltimore.

The Saints are my last team in on the NFL Week 9 entry but let's follow the cash flowing toward New Orleans.