Circa Million IV NFL Week 7 Picks
My comeback is complete after falling below-.500 with a 0-4-1 Week 5 performance. I've gone 8-1-1 in the past two weeks to push my Circa Million IV record up to a respectable 16-12-2 on the year.
Week 6 Recap:
At first glance, Week 7 is a brutal slate but, after honing in on some of the matchups, I feel better about it entering the weekend. In fact, I'll throw some cold cash on these Week 7 Circa Million picks.
Circa Million NFL Week 7 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens
The Browns went from my second to first favorite pick in Week 7 after the Ravens added Pro Bowl LT Ronnie Staley to the injury report as "questionable" Saturday. Baltimore already had cluster injuries on its offense.
On top of that, we are fading the overreaction to Cleveland's blowout loss to the New England Patriots last weekend. The Browns got "Belichick'd." The game was a lot closer than the final score indicates and Cleveland let the game get away in the second half.
More than 80% of the action is on the Ravens as of Saturday evening, according to Pregame.com. But, oddsmakers aren't pushing this line above the key number of -7 because sharps would come in heavy on the Browns.
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
This was my official "best bet" on this week's OutKick Bets podcast because the Falcons have a huge "strength-on-weakness" edge on the ground.
As discussed earlier this week, Atlanta has Football Outsider's top-ranked rushing efficiency, Cincy's defense is 21st in rushing expected points added per play and the Falcons have this week's 2nd-biggest edge in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus.
Atlanta is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) but are still underrated, as is Falcons QB Marcus Mariota who's ninth in QBR.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans -2.5
Tennessee is 8-0 overall and ATS with nine or more rest days under head coach Mike Vrabel (since 2018). Also, both teams have below-average quarterbacks and like to run the ball.
But, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is more reliable than Colts QB Matt Ryan and Tennessee RB Derrick Henry has had more success in this matchup than Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor.
I like Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry to take down the Colts and have them picked in the Circao Million contest. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
The Colts' injury situation is my final factor in this matchup. Taylor is going to play after missing the past two games but Indianapolis DE Kwity Paye and LB Shaquille Leonard will be out Sunday. Colts-Titans should be a slugfest so give me the healthier and more well-rested Tennessee team.
Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 at Miami Dolphins
I'm going to break this game down in further detail Sunday morning but it's a narrative-based handicap. This is Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores' revenge game against his former team.
Flores was fired this past offseason despite the Dolphins exceeding expectations because Flores is allegedly a tough person to get along with and not a "Tua Tagovailoa guy."
Furthermore, this will be Tua's first game back after being knocked out of a Thursday Night Football meeting with the Bengals in Week 4. Flores is elite at scheming up pressure and will have something for the shellshocked Tua.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers -5.5
This is my "f*** it" game of the week that I'm picking because a vast majority of the public is betting the Seahawks and this is a buy-low spot for the Chargers.
There's a saying in sports betting that goes "public 'dogs get slaughtered" and the Seahawks are getting nearly 70% of the money at DraftKings, per VSIN. So the sportsbooks are rooting for the better team.
LA has underwhelmed thus far but the Chargers offense could have a slump-bust game against a Seattle defense that's a sieve.
That said, I'd argue LA is meeting expectations. The Chargers are 4-2 ATS this season, have outgained five of their six opponents and have a +13 first-down differential.