Circa Million IV NFL Week 6 Picks
Last week was the bounceback I needed following an epically bad Week 4 performance. After a 0-4-1 two weeks ago, I went 4-0-1 in Week 5, bringing my Circa Million record up to 12-11-2 on the season.
Technically, I've won five straight in the Circa Million. I submitted my picks early this week to include the Washington Commanders -1 on Thursday Night Football vs. the Chicago Bears.
I got ridiculously lucky to be up 1-0 entering Sunday but you need luck for any hope of cashing in one of these season-long NFL handicapping contests.
Circa NFL Week 6 Picks
Washington Commanders -1 at Chicago Bears
I was way more confident in a terrible Washington team beating the Bears in Chicago Thursday than I should've been. The Commanders escaped TNF with a 12-7 victory over the Bears.
Bears WR Darnell Mooney is tackled short of the goal line by Commanders DB Benjamin St-Juste during the 4th quarter (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Since all contest picks have to be locked in at the same time, typically people wait until the final injury reports are released on Fridays before making their official selections.
Essentially, you have to be really confident in your TNF handicap if including that game in your contest picks. And, if we're being honest, Washington had no business beating Chicago Thursday.
But, I'll take the 1-0 start to my Week 6.
New England Patriots +2.5 at Cleveland Browns
The bottom line here is I'm always betting on Bill Belichick vs. a backup quarterback and a Swiss cheese defense.
To be fair, Browns QB Jacoby Brissett is performing above expectations. But, Brissett played for Belichick as a rookie so The Hoodie knows Brissett's weaknesses. Brissett has made critical mistakes in crunch time and will likely do so vs. a Belichick defense Sunday.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Also, New England has a big "strength-on-weakness" edge in the rushing department. The Patriots are second in rushing expected points added per play (EPA/play) and the Browns' defense is dead-last in rushing EPA/play allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans +1.5
The only reason this isn't my second-best bet on this Week 6 slate is that every sports betting podcast I consume is calling "New Orleans the 'sharp' side".
That sounds good but I was on the sharp side of a ton of bets in last year's Circa Million contest and was nowhere near making the money.
However, I do think the wrong team is favored in this spot and the Bengals are getting too much love for two mediocre wins.
I did a deep dive into the Bengals-Saints matchup earlier this week and bet New Orleans while it was still getting 2.5 points.
Despite getting a worse number, I'm still on the Saints because I've passed on too many winners in recent years quibbling over points. NOLA is the right side here and I'll take whatever points Circa gives me.
Denver Broncos +4.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
We'll discuss this Monday Night Football game in more detail Monday. But, Denver's pass defense is elite, the Broncos will have more supporters in LA than the Chargers and I'm just not a believer in Chargers coach Brandon Staley.
You can listen to further analysis for Broncos-Chargers on my NFL Week 6 OutKick Bets podcast featuring Dan Zaksheske.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -2.5
I've cooled on this pick since locking in a bet and contest selection earlier this week. Indianapolis announced Saturday it would be without first and second-string RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines.
But, this injury news hasn't done much to the betting line and Indy's run game wasn't a major factor in my Jaguars-Colts handicap.
Instead, I zeroed in on the fact that Jacksonville's ground game is horrible and Indianapolis's defense is underrated. The Jaguars are 26th in rushing EPA/play and the Colts are fourth in defensive rushing EPA/play allowed.
Also, the Colts are playing on extended rest since their Week 5 game was on Thursday Night Football. Indy is 4-0 overall and 3-0-1 ATS following bye weeks in coach Frank Reich's tenure (est. 2018).