Circa Million IV NFL Week 14 Picks
NFL Week 14 in the Circa Million IV handicapping contest is going to be a tough one because there's a limited selection with six teams on byes.
Week 13 Recap (4-1):
I'm on a bit of a heater in the NFL with Week 13 being my fourth consecutive winning week. My record is 36-26-3, which is tied for 531st out of 4,683 Circa Million entrants.
Here are the Circa Million IV lines for NFL Week 14 followed by my picks ...
Circa Million IV NFL Week 14 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Pick #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I've heard a lot of sports betting personalities say something to the effect of "How will Tom Brady score against this San Francisco 49ers defense?"
Maybe I'm taking crazy pills but isn't the bigger question, "How will Niners third-string QB Brock Purdy score against the Bucs?" Sure, San Francisco's defense is the best in the NFL but Tampa's is right up there.
I get it, the Bucs have been atrocious on offense and haven't met preseason expectations. But for as bad as the Buccaneers have been, they are still 6-6 and leading the NFC South comfortably.
The strength of the 49ers is their pass rush and Tampa's offensive line has the best pressure rate in the NFL. Also, the Buccaneers still have an elite WR tandem in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Also, the Niners being 3.5-point favorites over the Bucs feels like blind love for San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan. However, Shanahan hasn't won shit without Jimmy Garrapolo under center.
At the end of the day, the Bucs are my favorite look in the NFL Week 14 slate because in no world should Purdy be a 3.5-point favorite over Brady.
(LISTEN to Buccaneers-49ers analysis on this week's episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #2: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
The gist of this handicap is fading New York Jets QB Mike White with a Buffalo defense that's healthier than the first Jets-Bills meeting this season.
Buffalo was missing All-Pro DBs Tre White and Jordan Poyer. Former Jets starting QB Zach Wilson had a career-high QB Rating in NY's 20-17 win vs. the Bills in Week 9.
White got a lot of hype last season after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals but was brought down to earth soon after by the Bills.
In fact, White's final start of 2021 was in New York's 45-17 loss to Buffalo. White threw four INTs and NY only scored 3 points before benching White for Joe Flacco.
Finally, the Bills will have full motivation for this game. It's their first true-home game since Nov. 13 and Buffalo is in a tight AFC East race. The Bills will put together their most complete performance since hammering the Titans 41-7 in Week 2.
(LISTEN to Jets-Bills analysis on this week's episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #3: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
I love what I'm seeing right now from the Lions and the Vikings are clearly worse than their 10-2 record. The line movement confirms Detroit is trending up and Minnesota's record is fraudulent.
The Lions were 3-point underdogs on the look-ahead line and have been steamed up to favorites. Even though most of the betting action is on the Vikings, according to Pregame.com.
Low-key, the Lions have been one of the best offenses in the NFL recently. Detroit is second in expected points added per play since Week 10 behind the Kansas City Chiefs.
Lions QB Jared Goff has been much better than Vikings QB Kirk Cousins this season. Warren Sharp of The Ringer also pointed out that Goff throws well against zone coverage and Cousins struggles against man.
Well, Detroit's defense predominantly plays man coverage and Minnesota's defense spends a lot of time in zone coverage. In what should be a shootout, gimme the better QB and the Lions' more well-rounded offense.
(LISTEN to Vikings-Lions analysis on this week's episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #4: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
This is the Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup and it seems like everyone is writing off the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert.
Granted, LA's defense is ravaged by injuries and Miami has the best WR tandem in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But, the Dolphins are a little nicked up too and Herbert is very profitable as a road 'dog.
Since Herbert's rookie season (2020), the Chargers are 5-1 against the spread as an underdog in primetime games. Herbert averages 285 passing yards per game and has a 23/7 TD/INT ratio in primetime.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert scrambles in the 2nd quarter of a game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa on the other hand is just 2-3 ATS in primetime. Tua averages just 164 passing yards per game with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio in those games.
Also, what's worked best for me betting on the NFL over the past two seasons is isolating teams I know. This year I'm 6-1 betting Chargers games and 4-0 betting Dolphins games.
Lastly, I haven't heard anyone pick LA in this game, and typically the public hammers primetime favorites. Let's get on the same side as the sportsbooks who will certainly be rooting for the Chargers.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Chargers analysis on this week's episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #5: Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Again, this is a tough week but I have to come up with five picks for the contest regardless. I'm not in love with Seattle's trendline or injury report. But, how many more chances do I get at fading Panthers QB Sam Darnold?
Not only that but the Seahawks have a legit home-field advantage, this is a buy-low spot for Seattle and coach Pete Carroll keeps winning the QB matchup for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks' home crowd is called The 12th Man for a reason. I don't see Darnold going into Seattle and winning. Especially against a good Seahawks team that can still win the NFC West.
Seattle is 0-3 ATS in the last three games and its only victory was against the John Wolford-led Los Angeles Rams last week. However, the Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in five of their last six games.
Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll celebrates with QB Geno Smith against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Three of the Panthers' four wins came against each of their division co-tenants and the NFC South is by far the worst division in the NFL. Their other win was against the disgraceful Denver Broncos.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation, according to NFL's Next Gen Stats, and has a 22/6 TD/INT ratio.
Darnold has a career 23/26 TD/INT ratio on the road and threw for a whopping 164 yards vs. the Broncos in Week 12. With that in mind, Seattle leads in the NFL in net dropback success rate per play.
Finally, the Week 13 bye is worthless to Carolina. These late-season byes are meaningful for teams in playoff contention that can heal and rest. This Panthers team will be checked-out knowing they have a lame-duck coach and QB and their season is over.
(LISTEN to Panthers-Seahawks analysis on this week's episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).