Circa Million IV NFL Week 11 Picks
Thank god for Mike Vrabel and those two primetime games at the end of Week 10 because my Circa Million IV entry was headed towards another losing week otherwise.
Week 10 Recap (3-2):
My record now sits at 26-22-2, which is tied for 1,444th place out of 4,683 contest entries. I don't say this a lot but I feel pretty good about this week's games and anticipate another winning week.
Check out the Circa Million IV lines for NFL Week 11 ...
Circa Million IV NFL Week 11 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Pick #1: Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
It's scary how confident I am in Indianapolis covering the number vs. Philadelphia. Personally, I've placed some cold hard cash on my hot take this is a good spot for the Colts by hitting their spread and moneyline.
First of all, this is an obvious let-down spot for the Eagles who had their perfect season ruined last week by the Washington Commanders (our fifth-favorite bet in Week 10). Philly will naturally let its guard down without the pressure of chasing an undefeated season.
This is a "Pros vs. Joe's Game" in the betting market with more money coming in on the Colts while more bets have been placed on the Eagles. Following the money in these situations is generally the wiser idea.
Indy has a strength-on-weakness edge over Philly on the ground. The Eagles have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL and Colts RB Jonathan Taylor had his second-best game of the season last week after missing Week 9 with an injury.
Both teams have turnover luck, or non-luck, that's due for regression. Philadelphia is +12 in turnover margin and Indianapolis is -9. Since the Eagles have
Circa Pick #2: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5)
I'll be back tomorrow to discuss this game in further detail but Chargers QB Justin Herbert just cashes tickets as a road underdogs and the Chiefs are laying too many points.
Since Herbert's rookie season (2020), the Chargers are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs and the Chiefs are just 13-23 as 3.5-point favorites or greater.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert elevates for the throw against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
On top of that, Chiefs-Chargers got flexed up to Sunday Night Football and LA is 4-1 ATS as primetime 'dogs since Herbert's rookie season, which includes last weeks cover vs. the Niners.
Lastly, LA's offensive line has been giving Herbert time to throw all season and the Chargers expect their top-two WRs -- Keenan Allen and Mike Williams -- to return this week. LA's offense should have a bounce-back week after struggling the last few games.
Circa Pick #3: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)
This is a trends-based play for me. The Steelers are just too profitable in these spots under coach Mike Tomlin. For instance, Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs with a +7.8 ATS margin since the beginning of last season.
Also, the Steelers are 16-13 over and 20-8-1 ATS as underdogs in divisional games in the Tomlin era (est. 2007) and 9-3 ATS as divisional ‘dogs of +3.5.
Finally, sharps are backing Pittsburgh while the public is betting Cincy. Oddsmakers have lowered the Bengals down from a 4.5-point favorite on the opener down to the current number of -3.5. But, since the contest lines lock-in after the Thursday release, we still get +4 with the Steelers.
(You can read more analysis in the article above or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #4: New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Bill Belichick has been torturing opposing QBs since the 80s and Jets QB Zach Wilson is perhaps the worst starter in the NFL. If not, he's definitely in the running, and Belichick feasts on bad QBs.
This is an especially bad matchup for Wilson because New England's defense has the highest pressure rate in the NFL and Wilson is the worst QB under pressure.
Furthermore, this Jets-Patriots spread is wrong and skewed because of recency bias. The Jets were 2.5-point underdogs in NY when these teams met last in Week 8.
But, because the Jets beat the Buffalo Bills in their last game, NY is only a 3.5-point underdog in New England. That's too big of an overreaction if you ask me.
(You can read more analysis in the article above or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #5: Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)
This is another game I'm on because of a coaching mismatch. No offense to Lions coach Dan Campbell, whom I like, but Giants coach Brian Daboll is a miracle worker.
Daboll has turned around a cursed franchise, gotten the most out of RB Saquon Barkley, and saved NY QB Dan Jones' job. Lions-Giants is another game that's priced as well.
NY is only a 3-point favorite when the Bears were also 3-point home favorites last week vs. the Lions and the Packers were 4-points over the Lions in Detroit in Week 9. The Giants beat and covered against both the Bears and Packers.
Sportsbooks are giving the Giants a standard 3-point bump for being the home team but that's it. As in, the oddsmakers think these teams are equal on a neutral field. I reject that notion and will happily lay the points with the G-Men.
(You can read more analysis in the article above or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).