Circa Million IV NFL Week 10 Picks
Well, my "Geoffrow Records" Circa Million IV entry took a dump last week. A 1-4 performance snapped a 4-week winning streak for ya boy. But, we're going to dust ourselves off and get after it in Week 10.
Week 9 Recap (1-4):
My record now sits at 23-20-2, which is tied for 1,721st out of 4,683 entries. Check out the Circa Million IV lines for NFL Week 10 ...
Circa Million IV NFL Week 10 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Pick #1: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
My first two Circa selections will most likely be consensus picks, which sucks. The top-five most picked teams per week in these football handicapping contests are considered "fake sharp" plays. Hopefully, this isn't the case but, either way, this is too good of a spot for the Bears to pass up.
Chicago was my favorite pick in Week 9 because I knew Bears QB Justin Fields was going to run all over the Miami Dolphins defense. I feel even stronger about that in this game since Detroit has a bottom-five run defense.
Finally, Lions QB Jared Goff is notoriously bad in poor-weather games. This game is in Chicago and the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-30s with wind gusts in the mid-teens around kickoff.
(You can read more analysis in the article above or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #2: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
This will probably be the most selected game in the contest this week because the Rams are -3 across most sportsbooks as of Saturday afternoon.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford being added to the concussion protocol mid-week caused LA's spread to drop. Circa releases its contest lines Thursday morning and Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is now listed as "questionable" on the injury report. This caused the line to jump back up to the opener.
Los Angeles Rams Aaron Donald sacks Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray during the second quarter at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)
However, I'm rolling with LA regardless because Aaron Donald and Co. are going to destroy whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona.
Most importantly, Rams head coach Sean McVay owns Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. (You can read more analysis in this article or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #3: Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
I'm fading Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan in primetime games and backing Chargers QB Justin Herbert in a spot he exceeds expectations in.
San Francisco is 4-10 ATS as favorites in primetime in the Shanahan era (est. 2017) and the Chargers are 3-1 ATS as primetime road 'dogs since Herbert’s rookie season (est. 2020). Also, LA is 7-3 ATS as road underdogs over that span.
(You can read more analysis in the article above or LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #4: Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Denver is the sharp side here and I know it. The Titans aren't as good as their 5-3 record suggests and the Broncos are coming off a bye week.
But, Denver rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett would need five lifetimes worth of prep to outcoach Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel.
The reigning Coach of the Year is doing more with less in 2022. Hackett can't get plays called in time and Broncos QB Russell Wilson has sucked.
The Titans have a massive edge over the Broncos in the trenches, especially in the run game. Denver's defense gives up 4.9 yards per rush (ranked 27th) so I think Tennessee RB Derrick Henry has a big afternoon. King Henry has 678 rushing yards over the last five games with seven TDs.
Tennessee Titans Derrick Henry carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Per Pro Football Focus, Denver has the fourth-worst run-blocking mismatch in Week 10. Tennessee's defense has the best rushing success rate in the NFL and third-best expected points added per play (EPA/play).
Whereas the Broncos average just 4.1 yards per rush (ranked 23rd) and their best running back (Javonte Williams) is on IR.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill practiced this week and could return from a two-game hiatus. If Tannehill plays, Tennessee should be at least 3.5-point favorites over Denver at home.
(Buyer beware: Tennessee's injury report is scary and Tannehill could miss Week 10).
Circa Pick #5: Washington Commanders (+11) at Philadelphia Eagles
The run game is more important this season because scoring is down and games have slimmer margins. This is an area where the Commanders have an edge over the Eagles.
Washington's defense is second in rushing EPA/play and fourth in rushing success rate. Philly's defense is 30th in rushing EPA/play and 31st in rushing success rate.
The Commanders can make the Eagles one-dimensional on offense and I don't trust Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts to cover a double-digit spread through the air.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts drops back to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Washington's defense can get the Eagles off the field if Philly has to convert several 3rd-and-long's. The Commanders are third in 3rd-down conversion rate and 12th in sack rate.
Philly has a strong offensive line but is 25th in sack rate allowed. That sack rate has to be a quarterback stat with Hurts not getting rid of the ball fast enough. The Commanders will pin their ears back and get after Hurts if the Eagles cannot run the ball.
Washington's edge in the run game combined with Philadelphia being a double-digit favorite in a primetime division game equals a Commanders' Circa selection.