How To Bet The 2024 Cincinnati Bengals When Most Of Their Odds Are On The Nose?

NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. Now that I'm finished with the three AFC North playoff teams from 2023, it's time to shift gears to the last-place Cincinnati Bengals. 

Joe Burrow strained his calf during training camp in 2023. It was Burrow’s third straight preseason dealing with an injury, contributing to a slow start for Cincy. Two years ago, Burrow ruptured his appendix and he was returning from a torn ACL in 2021. The Bengals were 1-3 through Week 4 last season. But, once Burrow got healthy, or his pain became more manageable, Cincinnati started to play like a Super Bowl contender.

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow talks with backup QB Logan Woodside during training camp. (Sam Greene/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Bengals won four games in a row from early October to mid-November, including back-to-back wins at the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers and AFC East-winning Buffalo Bills in Weeks 8-9. After losing a 30-27 shootout to QB C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in Week 10, Burrow sustained a season-ending wrist injury in Cincy’s 34-20 Week 11 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. 

Backup QB Jake Browning guided the Bengals to a three-game winning streak from Weeks 13-15. However, consecutive losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs in Weeks 16-17 ended Cincinnati’s season, finishing 9-8, last in the AFC North. The Bengals getting above-.500 without Burrow is a positive sign of Zac Taylor’s coaching chops. 

Cincinnati Bengals 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, August 14. 

• Super Bowl: +1500
• Conference: +750
• Division: +165
• Playoffs: Yes (-210) | No (+168)
• 10.5 Wins: Over (-120) | Under (-102)

For the first time in three years, Burrow is healthy for preseason and a full participant in training camp. Also, the Bengals have the biggest year-over-year change in their strength of schedule to the good. In 2023, they had the toughest schedule in the NFL. This year, Cincy is projected to have the sixth-easiest schedule based on Las Vegas win totals, per Warren Sharp. 

A last-place schedule plus Burrow at 100% should equal a hot start for the Bengals in 2024. They play the three worst teams from 2023 in their first four games: New England Patriots in Week 1, Washington Commanders in Week 3, and Carolina Panthers in Week 5. Yet, all of this is baked in Cincinnati’s preseason odds, unfortunately. 

Browns DE Myles Garrett sacks Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland in Ohio. (Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK)

My biggest concern for the Bengals is their offensive line. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks Cincinnati's offensive line 21st entering 2024. ESPN had the Bengals 27th in pass-block win rate last season. They face a bevy of nasty pass rushers this year, including Raiders' Maxx Crosby, Cowboys' Micah Parsons, Browns' Myles Garrett, and Steelers' T.J. Watt. 

READ: Joe Burrow Wants To Get Hit One Time Before Regular Season Starts

Another weakness for the Bengals is their defense. They are projected to have the sixth-best defense in football next season by DraftKings when examining the spreads and totals for every game. But, last year, Cincy was 21st in points per game allowed and last in yards per play allowed. 

Safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Smith and DT Sheldon Rankins are Cincinnati’s only offseason additions on defense. Safety isn’t a premium position in the 2024 NFL and Rankins is a downgrade from former elite run-stopping DT D.J. Reader. Rankins had a 39.1 run-stopping grade by PFF in 2023, ranked 121st out of 137 eligible defensive linemen. 

With that in mind, the Bengals have a bottom-10 front seven. Cincinnati’s 4.7 yards per rush last season ranked 30th in the NFL. Bengals starting LBs Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson graded out below-average among NFL linebackers by PFF. Edge rusher Sam Hubbard had a career-low 29 pressures last season. 

That said, since Burrow is fully healthy and a top-five quarterback, Cincinnati’s ceiling is hoisting a Lombardi Trophy. Hence, I cannot fade them. In fact, if I weren't sky-high on the Cleveland Browns, the Bengals would be my pick to win the AFC North because of their cupcake schedule. 

Cincinnati Bengals 2024 Projection: 11-6 for second in the AFC North

_____________________________ 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals: Zac Taylor to win 2024 NFL Coach of the Year (+3000) at FanDuel 

If everything breaks right for Cincy, it could have the best record in the NFL, which is +1200 at FanDuel. Burrow is a perennial MVP candidate, but he is tied with Stroud for the third-best odds (+1000). Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is as good as any wideout in the league and has the third-best odds to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1000). 

With this in mind, the fattest payout for Cincinnati hitting its ceiling is Taylor to win Coach of the Year. Taylor went 2-14 in his first season as Cincy's head coach (2019) and I remember some NFL handicappers calling him the "worst head coach ever". I never agreed with that take because most coaches suck until they get a quarterback. 

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor gives instructions to Joe Burrow vs. the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

Bill Belichick, the greatest coach ever, had a losing record without Tom Brady. Once the Bengals drafted Burrow in 2020, Taylor suddenly became a good coach. In reality, Taylor, like every other playcaller, needed a quarterback to execute his system. 

Again, Taylor showed off his coaching skills when Burrow went down last year. Browning was 4-3 as a starter in 2023 with a better QB Rating (98.4-91.0) and QBR (60.1-51.6). Ultimately, all of Cincy's team odds are fair, but Taylor to win Coach of the Year is off if the Bengals slightly exceeded their lofty expectations. 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

• Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
• Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
• Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
• 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns (+31400)
• Cleveland Browns ‘Ladder’ Futures: Super Bowl (+3500), AFC (+2200), and AFC North (+600)
• Pittsburgh Steelers to have the worst regular-season record in 2024 (+3100)
• Cincinnati Bengals' Zac Taylor to win 2024 NFL Coach of the Year (+3000)

_____________________________ 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.