Churchill Downs Penultimate Day In 2024 Spring Meet Picks: Wise Dan, Fleur de Lis, Stephen Foster Stakes
Since I'm from upstate New York, I usually wait until the Saratoga summer meet in the second week of July to bet horse racing following the Triple Crown. However, I'm starting early after correctly picking the long-shot upset and cashing $163.25 on a $1 Exacta bet on the 2024 Belmont Stakes. With that in mind, I did my homework for the three Graded races on the penultimate day of the 2024 Churchill Down meet: Wise Dan, Fleur de Lis, and Stephen Foster Stakes.
Churchill Downs Stakes Races: Saturday, June 29
Race 7: Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes, 3:52 p.m. ET post time
A six-horse, one-and-one-sixteenth mile race on turf for four-year-olds and upward with a $500,000 purse.
2- Ottoman Fleet (GB)
- Morning Line (ML) odds: 1-1
- Record (Starts-Win-Place-Show): 18-6-5-5
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Trainer: Charles Appleby
- Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102
This British dude has run in 12 consecutive Graded races on turf with a 4-2-5 record. Ottoman Fleet has Beyer Speed Figures (a Daily Racing Form proprietary stat) of 99, 101, 100, and 102 in his last four graded races over the past two years on American turf. There have only been two faster speeds in all the other races by the horses in this field.
He finished second by a neck in his 2024 American debut at Belmont in the Grade 2 Fort Mercy in May. Earlier this month, he beat the #3, Chasing The Crown, by a head on the Churchill turf in the Grade 3 Arlington. It was Ottoman Fleet's debut at this distance but a blazing fast late pace makes him a good fit for a one-and-one-sixteenth mile.
6- Exaulted
- ML odds: 4-1
- Record: 16-5-4-4
- Jockey: Juan Hernandez
- Trainer: Peter Eurton
- Best Beyer: 98
The Californian makes his Eastern Time Zone, and 2024, debut after running at Santa Anita in Los Angeles County and Del Mar in San Diego. Exaulted won his first four races when switching over to turf last year. The #6 horse had that streak snapped his last time out with a second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile in September 2023.
Exaulted had a 98 Beyer in his final two races last year, including a win in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita. It's also his first race at this distance. However, his five fastest Beyers were on turf and the #6 had a cheaper price in four of those races. With these odds, I'll give Exaulted a puncher's chance in a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race.
Pick(s):
- $15 Win Bet on #2 Ottoman Fleet
- $5 Exacta Box: 2-6 for a $10 bet.
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Race 8: Fleur de Lis Stakes, 4:25 p.m. ET post time
A six-horse, one-and-one-eighth mile race on the dirt track for fillies and mares four years old and upwards with a $500,000 purse.
6- Xigera
- ML odds: 9-2
- Record: 12-6-2-1
- Jockey: Julien Leparoux
- Trainer: Philip Bauer
- Best Beyer: 98
Nyquist's daughter has struggled in her first two races this season, both at Churchill. Xigera finished last in the Grade 1 La Troienne in May and second behind the top betting choice in this race, #4 Scylla, in the Grade 3 Shawnee earlier this month.
That said, Xigera's last two works in prep for the Fleur de Lis at Churchill were impressive. A "fast furlong" is 12 seconds. She ran a 47-second four-furlong work last Saturday and a 58-second five-furlong work June 15.
Also, the #6 horse ended last season on a three-race winning streak. This includes two races at Churchill, two at this distance, and two Graded races (Mother Goose Grade 2 at Belmont and Falls City Grade 3 at Churchill).
Lastly, Xigera is averaging the most money won per race of any horse in this field. She has won nearly $75,000 per race, almost $6,000 higher than the favorite. Since I haven't read this logic from a horse handicapper yet, I might use it again this summer in Saratoga if it works.
$20 Win Bet on #6 Xigera
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Race 11: Stephen Foster Stakes, 6:03 p.m. ET post time
An eight-horse, one-and-one-eighth mile race on the dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $1 million purse.
1- Pyrenees
- ML odds: 12-1
- Record: 8-4-1-1
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez
- Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
- Best Beyer: 93
I didn't have to go far down the page to fall in love. Pyrenees is on a four-race winning streak with faster speeds each time. He ran a 93 Beyer his last time out in a win at the Grade 3 Pimlico Special on Black-Eyed Susan Day Preakness week. Pyrenees beat the top betting choice that day, Kingsbarns, who is the #7 horse in this race and 6-1 on the morning line.
Granted, the Stephen Foster Stakes are a step up in competition for Pyrenees. But, this is a step back in distance for him. Pyrenees' win in the Pimlico Special was on a one-and-three-sixteenth-mile dirt track. Plus, the colt won by three lengths in a one-and-one-eighth-mile allowance race at Keeneland in April. At this price, I'll be USING Pyrenees in exotics.
4- Disarm
- ML odds: 6-1
- Record: 10-3-3-2
- Jockey: Joel Rosario
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Best Beyer: 103
As a Saratoga native, all I needed to see was Disarm's results at my hometown race course. He broke his maiden in Saratoga as a two-year-old in August 2022. Disarm ran in six consecutive Graded races in the following season highlighted by the 2023 Kentucky Derby at Churchill and Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
The Travers is a top-five event in horse racing along with the Triple Crown and the Breeder's Cup Classic. Disarm finished second in the Travers behind the 2023 Belmont Stakes winner, Arcangelo, even though he ran his fastest Beyer ever. He finished fourth in last year's Kentucky Derby but out-ran his odds significantly, closing at a $27.12 price.
Disarm trains for the 2023 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
We are getting Disarm at a discount because he ran a slow race (85 Beyer) on his first time out as a four-year-old in May. Yet, he still won that race and Disarm ran slow in a second-place finish in his first race as a three-year-old after resting in the winter of 2022. I'm USING Disarm in exotics as well.
Pick(s):
- $10 Win Bet on #4 Disarm.
- $5 Win-Place Bets on #1 Pyrenees for a $10 total bet.
- $1 Trifecta Box: 1-4-7 for a $6 total bet.
- $1 Trifecta Box: 1-2-4 for a $6 total bet.
- $4 Exacta Box: 1-4 for a $8 total bet.
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