Chiefs Have To Rely On Kelce To Get A Win Against Saints

Saints vs. Chiefs, 8:15 ET

After going 10-1 over the previous 11 Outkick plays before Week 5 of the NFL season, I was bound to cool off at some point. It appears that it may have happened this week with me getting just one win in the past three plays. With Monday Night Football, I get an opportunity to try and even it up before we head into Week 6. Tonight, we get a matchup between the team that looked the best after two weeks - the Saints - and the only remaining undefeated team in football, the Chiefs. 

New Orleans, as mentioned, looked like they might be the best team in football after two weeks. The first game was a blowout win against a bad Panthers team, but the second win was against the Cowboys. Dallas was expected to be one of the best teams in football and they were blown out 44-19 on their home field. Back-to-back 40+ point games from the Saints made them look like their offense was going to be unstoppable. After four weeks, stoppable is exactly what they are. They could only muster 12 points against the Eagles, and fell 26-24 at the buzzer to the Falcons. So which team shows up here? It isn't like the Eagles or the Falcons have truly elite defense like the Chiefs do. However, Derek Carr, with his familiarity with the Chiefs should know where the holes are on the defense. I'd expect them to try to get Alvin Kamara involved as often as possible. Kamara looks rejuvenated this season and is running the ball well, but the Chiefs defense will not let him beat them. They should be able to get Kamara in open space with him leaking out of the backfield and into some space to make defenders miss. That's the team's best chance to be productive on offense. 

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - NOVEMBER 12: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints smells a smelling salts packet in the first quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

For the Chiefs, they are 4-0 right now, but it is reasonable to think that they could be 0-4. Because they are a championship team, well-coached, and keep their composure. Week 1 they were saved by a toe being out of bounds. Week 2 they had the ball last, got a correct pass interference call resulting in a game-winning field goal. Week 3 saw them again, get saved by the defense, stopping a run close to the goal. Week 4 saw them go down 10 points and lose their best receiver. Then the offense finally made it work with 17 unanswered points. The first two Chiefs championships were won because Patrick Mahomes was ridiculously good. Last year's win was mostly because the defense has been elite, especially when it mattered most. That's what you can say about this season, too. Mahomes hasn't looked sharp this season, or last year if we are being honest. A substantial portion of that is the lack of quality receivers. It won't get any easier this week as the team didn't add anyone significant in the past week. The team will need to rely even more on Travis Kelce this week, and he finally broke out of it last week hauling in more than half of his season yardage and about half of his receptions with a seven-catch, 89-yard performance. 

This is going to be a fairly close game and I think the number for the book is fair. I also think the total is pretty solid. I'd be surprised to see the Saints win this one given how they can't seem to close out a game the past two weeks. However, if Kamara gets going, the team can probably beat anyone. The problem with that is the Chiefs won't let him get going. Instaed of a side or total, I like Kelce to go over his receiving yards tonight at 58.5. I also think he probably finds the endzone - likely the first of the game for the Chiefs. 

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