Caleb Williams Is The Savior The 2024 Chicago Bears Needed

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NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. Check out my AFC South, NFC South, and AFC North team-by-team previews. After discussing the top two favorites in the NFC North, it's time to preview my division winner this season: the Chicago Bears. 

Chicago general manager Ryan Poles pulled off the trade of a lifetime. He flipped the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers for their first-round pick in 2024 and No. 1 WR D.J. Moore. Carolina took QB Bryce Young, went 2-15, and sent the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft to Chicago. 

Moore had career highs in catches (96), receiving yards (1,364), and TDs (8), and the first pick turned into QB Caleb Williams. It was an absolute steal. At the minimum, Poles gave former Bears QB Justin Fields a game-breaker to work with. Fields was 10-28 as a starter in his three years with the Bears. 

USC Trojans QB Caleb Williams poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Chicago Bears first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

USC Trojans QB Caleb Williams poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Chicago Bears first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

In 2023, Chicago went 7-10, making it easy for Poles to trade Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers and draft Williams with Carolina's first pick. So, Poles hit the jackpot by getting a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver and a franchise quarterback. Plus, the Bears kept their first round in the 2024 draft and took WR Rome Odunze ninth overall. 

The biggest winner here is Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus, who got to keep his job despite a 10-24 record in his first two seasons. Poles inherited Fields when getting hired as the Bears' GM in 2022. While Eberflus was Poles' first head coaching hire. Hence, it makes sense for Poles to give Eberflus a chance with a legit quarterback (sorry Fields). 

Chicago Bears 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 1:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, August 20. 

  • Super Bowl: +3500
  • Conference: +1400
  • Division: +340
  • Playoffs: Yes (-105), No (-115)
  • 8.5 Wins: Over (-160), Under (+130)

Given how well he handled the Fields situation, I'm confident in the team Poles has put together. He added offensive coordinator (OC) Shane Waldron to the coaching staff this offseason. Waldron got the most out of Seahawks QB Geno Smith as Seattle's OC from 2021-23 and was Sean McVay's pass game coordinator for the LA Rams from 2018-20. 

Also, Poles traded for six-time Pro Bowl WR Keenan Allen and 2023 Pro Bowl RB D'Andre Swift this offseason. FTN wrote Williams has the "best supporting cast for a No. 1 pick over the past 25 years and the second best for a top-12 pick behind only Daunte Culpepper … who threw to Randy Moss and Cris Carter" in its 2024 Football Almanac. 

Furthermore, Chicago's offensive line was low-key good last season. According to ESPN, the Bears were fifth in pass-block win rate and second in run-block win rate. Fields took the fifth-most sacks in 2023 because he didn't get rid of the ball and led the NFL in "pocket time". Whereas Williams can improvise and play within the system. 

There is a perception that Williams took a step back in his final season at USC. Yet, in 2023, Williams' passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per pass improved from his Heisman-winning season in 2022. Essentially, he was the "fall guy" for a USC defense that ranked 121st out of 133 football programs in points per game allowed last year. 

Relatively speaking, and literally, Chicago's defense is better than that. The Bears were fourth in "early-down" defensive success rate last season, behind the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and Kansas City Chiefs, per RBSDM.com. "Early down" metrics are predictive because the whole playbook is available. 

More importantly, Chicago's defense has dogs on all three levels, including pass rusher Pro Bowl Montez Sweat, LB T.J. Edwards, All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson, and All-Pro S Kevin Byard. Johnson was Pro Football Focus's No. 1 cornerback last year and Byard gives the Bears another playmaker on defense.  

But, ultimately, the Bears go as Williams goes. As one of the earliest investors in Williams' stock, I'm predicting he will be a top-five NFL quarterback when he signs his second contract. His velocity stays up while throwing the ball on the run and puts the ball on target. Williams is elusive as a ball carrier. He is 85-90% of Patrick Mahomes, which would make him a top-five QB. 

Chicago Bears 2024 Projection: 11-6 to win in the NFC North 

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‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (+120) 

Yeah, the odds stink, and you have to tie up your money for five months, but it's the "best bet". Similarly, San Antonio Spurs PF Victor Wembanyama winning the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year was a "lock". Like Wembanyama, Williams is so much better than every other player in the 2024 rookie class. 

For the record, I bet Chicago wins the 2024 NFC North. However, +340 is a sharp line considering how good the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers could be. Granted, I predict the Lions will regress in 2024 and the Packers aren't as good as the market suggests. 

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams rolls out in a 2024 NFL preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams rolls out in a 2024 NFL preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)

With that in mind, I could be wrong about the Bears winning the division, but I won't be wrong about Williams being the best rookie quarterback in 2024. And, since it's mostly a "quarterback award", I'm counting this bet as "free money" I'll receive in early February. 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.