Cheerio: Chicago Bears Will Maul The London (Jacksonville) Jaguars In NFL Week 6
Set your alarm clocks for 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday because there is another NFL International Game in London between the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) and Chicago Bears (3-2) in Week 6. People b*tch about these London games, but I absolutely love them. I get a large Dunkin' Iced Latte and a breakfast burrito and start my NFL Sunday early.
Anyway, London is the Jaguars' "home away from home". This will be their 12th London game and Jacksonville plays its 13th next week against the New England Patriots. Yet, the Bears are -120 moneyline favorites, give or take, with a -1.5 spread and the total is 44.5 across the board.
Even though they won, I’m downgrading the Jaguars after their game vs. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5. Jacksonville beat Indy 37-34 Sunday and covered the Circa Million VI contest line (-2.5), but failed to cover the closing spread (-3.5). The Colts had a better noise-canceled score, per Pro Football Focus. A "noise-canceled score" looks at raw efficiency and removes luck.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears moneyline (-116) at FanDuel
Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams is finding his groove. In a 36-10 win over the Carolina Panthers, Williams had career bests in passing yards (304) and QB Rating (126.2). Over his last three games, Williams has been completing 67.3% of his passes for 824 yards with 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 99.2 QB Rating.
While beating up on Carolina’s god-awful defense isn’t anything to brag about, neither is scoring 37 on Indy's defense, which is almost as bad. Plus, Jacksonville's defense is last in dropback EPA, per RBSDM.com. The Jaguars play mostly Man coverage and Williams has a better QB Rating vs. Man.
Also, the Colts were missing their four best defensive players in Week 5 and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is familiar with their defensive scheme. Gus Bradley has been Indianapolis's defensive coordinator since replacing current Bears head coach Matt Ebeflus, who was hired by Chicago in 2022.
Bradley has been getting dragged in the NFL media streets for making the fewest in-game adjustments in the league and an outdated defensive philosophy. Well, Lawrence lit up Bradley’s weaka** Cover 3 defense again last week like he always does. On the other hand, the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
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Their defense ranks seventh in points per play, eighth in yards per play, third in 3rd-down conversion rate, and fifth in red zone scoring. The only reason this line isn’t "Chicago -3.5" is that the Jaguars play in London every season, so the market thinks Jacksonville has an edge. That said, good locker room vibes are important for these business trips to London.
The Chicago Bears' moneyline vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars is one of my best bets in NFL Week 6. (Photo credit: David Banks-Imagn Images)
Players and coaching staffs spend a lot of time together traveling and fulfilling additional media requirements for playing in the NFL International Games. Between the bickering between Lawrence and WR Gabe Davis on the sidelines Sunday and Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson throwing his players under the bus, the vibes are bad in Jacksonville.
Finally, I prefer Chicago’s London travel plan. The Bears left for London Monday to acclimate to the time zone and the Jaguars are leaving Friday because of Hurricane Milton. Chicago can treat this trip like a mini training camp and bonding session while Jacksonville will be jet-lagged.
Prediction: Bears 27, Jaguars 22
- "Chicago -2.5" is my second pick for NFL Week 6 of the Circa Million VI handicapping contest and this game will be featured in my Weekend Betting Guide.
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