Charles Schwab Challenge 2023: Best Bets, Course And Event Preview
Despite coming off the PGA Tour's 2nd major, the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge has a sneaky good field. Eleven of the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field including No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 6 Max Homa.
The host course for the Charles Schwab Challenge is the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. It's a Par 70 at 7,209 yards with four Par 3s, two Par 5s, and 12 Par 4s. The greens are made up of Bent grass.
A scenic view of the 13th hole during a practice round prior to the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)
Colonial is your quintessential “2nd-shot course”. There are strategically placed trees along very narrow fairways. Golfers need to be accurate with the driver to get a good look at hitting a green-in-regulation at Colonial.
After losing -4.85 units (u) in the 2023 PGA Championship, my PGA Tour 2022-23 balance dropped to -13.82u. The recap of the 2023 PGA Championship is at the bottom.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2023 Odds
Top-11
Odds for the top-11 golfers at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge from DraftKings.
Top 12-20
Odds for the top 12-20 golfers at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge from DraftKings.
Previous Charles Schwab champions (odds via GolfOdds.com)
The last five Charles Schwab winners have an average odds of +4560 with an average winning score of -14 and an average cut-line of 2-over par.
The 18th hole during a practice round prior to the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)
Key Stats for Colonial Country Club
I’m adding importance to course history at Colonial in my Charles Schwab power rankings since a lot of the same names show up on the Charles Schwab leaderboard year in, year out.
Horses For Colonial
Emiliano Grillo
He is 12th in my Charles Schwab power rankings and goes well at Colonial. Grillo missed the cut at the 2023 PGA Championship. But, that course (Oak Hill Country Club) killed everyone and Grillo in good form otherwise.
Grillo is 1st in my key stat model over the last 12 rounds. Prior to the PGA Championship, Grillo placed T23 at the Wells Fargo (“elevated event”), T5 at the Mexico Open, and T7 at the RBC Heritage (“elevated event”).
From the Wells Fargo to RBC, Grillo gained an average of nearly seven strokes tee-to-green, roughly six strokes with his irons, and two strokes with the putter per event.
Emiliano Grillo lines up a putt on the 14th green during the 1st round of the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
He is 4th in total SG at the last five Charles Schwabs. Grillo finished T8 in 2021 and 3rd in 2018 behind Justin Rose (winner) and Brooks Koepka (2nd).
Colonial fits Grillo’s game. ARG play is less important at Colonial and that’s the only stat Grillo is losing strokes in over his last five and 20 events.
Grillo is solid on Bent grass greens recently: 36th in SG: Putting on Bent over the last 12 rounds. In his 3rd place finish at the 2018 Charles Schwab, Grillo was +10.7 SG: Putting. Grillo was putting well prior to that 2018 Charles Schwab as well.
1st Charles Schwab Thoroughbred: Emiliano Grillo
Collin Morikawa
Speaking of "course fit," no one's game fits Colonial better than Morikawa's. Colonial is a "positional" course where accuracy matters and Morikawa is one of the most accurate ball strikers in the world.
Morikawa is atop my key stat model over the last 50 rounds. He ranks 4th or better in this field in eight of my nine stats pulled. He’s 1st in SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, 1st in PROX: 150-175 yards, and 2nd in GIRs Gained.
Collin Morikawa plays his shot from the 6th tee during the 1st round of the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Morikawa lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger in his Charles Schwab debut in 2020. That week, Morikawa was +3.4 SG: Putting at Colonial. He finished T14 at the 2021 Charles Schwab and T40 last year.
The bottom line is if Collin can make putts, Morikawa is a threat to win any event he enters. But, at a course as tough as Colonial, Collin's ball striking should at least keep him in the mix on the weekend.
2nd Charles Schwab Thoroughbred: Collin Morikawa
Justin Rose
J-Rose checks off all the boxes for golfers I'm looking to bet at the Charles Schwab. He is 5th in my Charles Schwab power rankings and has the 8th-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Over the last 50 rounds, Rose is 15th in my key stat model, which is the worst of his relative rankings for this course. He is 6th in total SG at Colonial, Rose won the Charles Schwab in 2018 and finished T3 in 2020.
Justin Rose plays an approach shot on the 17th hole during the final round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Rose is 12th in total SG over his last 24 rounds of golf. He was T9 at the 2023 PGA Championship last week, T16 at the Masters in April, and T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March.
Furthermore, Rose is 3rd in total SG at comp courses to Colonial, 9th in total SG at short courses with difficult scoring conditions, and 6th in SG: Putting on Bent grass greens over the last 12 rounds.
3rd Charles Schwab Thoroughbred: Justin Rose
Tom Hoge
This is kind of a random pick because Hoge has missed three cuts in his last six starts and is 64th in total SG during that stretch. Hoge missed the cut at last year's Charles Schwab and is 51st in total SG at Colonial.
Tom Hoge celebrates with the trophy after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
However, Hoge set a course record at TPC Sawgrass at THE PLAYERS in March. Also, Colonial has some of the smallest greens on Tour and Hoge's only PGA win was at Pebble Beach, which has the smallest greens on Tour.
Finally, Hoge is one of the most precise golfers in the world with his irons. He is 9th in this field for SG: BS, 4th in SG: APP, 11th in PROX: 150-175 yards out, and 1st in Opps Gained over the last 40 rounds.
4th Charles Schwab Thoroughbred: Tom Hoge
2023 PGA Championship Betting Recap: -4.85 units
“Horses for the course”
Longshots
Head-to-Head Tournament Matchups
Head-to-Head Round 2 Matchups
“End of Round 1 Leader”
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