Chargers Will Roll Against Patriots To Secure Playoff Spot

Chargers vs. Patriots, 1:00 ET

It has been a fun football week to this point with wins in both of the Christmas Day games. Sometimes the obvious plays hit and that gives me a bit of a smile. I've always been of the belief that you should try and make things complicated on yourself and the harder you make things on your life, the worse everything tends to be. I'm a simple guy and I try to keep things simple. You may not need to read on very far in this one to realize I'm likely taking the simple and obvious play here as the Chargers take on the Patriots. 

The Chargers are 9-6, and sit in the sixth spot for the playoffs. A win here would secure their spot as they have a  two game lead over the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals. If they were to lose there is at least a possibility they could miss the playoffs with another loss in Week 18. It seems fairly unlikely that they lose both games, but I wanted to paint a bit of a picture for everyone to share specifically what the Chargers are playing for here against the Patriots. Los Angeles has put together a very good season in their first under their Harbaugh brother. Interestingly enough, of all the playoff teams in the AFC, the Chargers have a .511 strength of schedule which puts them third in the playoff ranks. However, they have the second lowest strength of victory. Meaning that they are beating bad teams but they don't really do much against the good ones. I can't say that the Patriots are a good team, so the Chargers should have the upper hand here. The Chargers defense, which was once among the best in the league, still is second in the league in points allowed. This is despite now being middle-of-the-pack against both the run and pass. 

Nov 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to [ass against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

The Patriots are not a good team, but they have at least been relatively competitive. For the year they are 3-12, but this was expected to be a down year for the club. They've lost their past five games, but three were one-score affairs, including two of the three home games. Prior to that they had beat the Jets, who everyone has beat this year, and the Bears, another team that everyone seems to bash. Drake Maye has been pretty good under center for the Patriots, having taken over in Week 6. He does have 10 interceptions which isn't ideal, and a bit indicative of his decision-making, but something you need to work through with a rookie quarterback. The Patriots aren't great against the rush, but without their primary running option, I don't expect the Chargers to be quote a strong so this may give a bit of a boost to the Patriots defense. They are better against the pass, but I am not sure that will matter all that much since the Chargers seem to run a fairly balanced offense to keep their opponent on their toes.

Look, I won't overthink this game. It is possible that the Patriots could keep this game within three points, but I think in the different possibilities and outcomes for this game, that is one of the least likely outcomes. The Chargers are currently -4.5 favorites and while they aren't blowing everyone out, the majority of their wins have been by seven or more points. I think the Chargers win and 8 of their wins have come by seven or more points. Back them to win this and cover the -4.5

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024