CFP National Championship Pick: Michigan Vs. Washington
Finally, the SEC gives another conference a chance after winning the previous four College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championships. The Big Ten champion Michigan Wolverines (14-0) meet the Pac-12 winning Washington Huskies (14-0) for a 7:45 p.m. ET kickoff at NRG Stadium in the CFP title game.
An aerial view of NRG Stadium, host of the 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) national championship between the Washington Huskies and the Michigan Wolverines. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Both teams punched their tickets to the CFP title game. Michigan stopped the Alabama Crimson Tide on 4th-and-goal in the 1st overtime to win the Rose Bowl 27-20. Washington got here by holding off the Texas Longhorns for a 37-31 win in the Sugar Bowl.
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Reportedly, this could be Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh's final game with the program. There are going to be several intriguing NFL job openings. With a CFP win, Harbaugh can say he brought Michigan back and chase a Super Bowl with a clear conscious.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh lifts the Rose Bowl trophy after the Wolverines' 27-20 overtime win over Alabama at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, Calif. on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
Washington on the other hand can send the Pac-12 off with a bang Monday. The Huskies are the final Pac-12 champion ever as the conference goes belly up next season. Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer is 25-2 through his 1st two seasons in Washington.
CFP 2024 Odds: Michigan Wolverines vs. Washington Huskies (PointsBet)
My biggest concern with betting the Huskies in the CFP national championship is them being a "public 'dog." Per Pregame.com, more than 60% of the action is on Washington as of noon ET Monday. Last year, the bulk of the bets were on TCU as +13.5 'dogs. Well, Georgia waxed the Horned Frogs 65-7 in the CFP title game.
However, Michigan isn't an SEC team and the Big Ten conference is one of the most overrated things in sports. Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. The Pac-12's SRS is a full point better than the Big Ten's (7.2-6.2).
The Huskies played the toughest schedule in the country while the Wolverines' strength of schedule ranked 18th out of 133 football programs. Michigan played an Iowa team that couldn't score, Ohio State in a down-year, and Penn State with a 1st-year starting quarterback.
The Michigan Wolverines stop the Alabama Crimson Tide on 4th-and-goal to win 27-20 in overtime of the CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl. (Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Even Michigan's CFP semifinal opponent, Alabama, had a worse roster than previous years. Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe ate too many sacks all season and the Rose Bowl was "played in a phone booth." Washington has a top-five offensive line in the country and QB Michael Penix Jr. has a quick release.
Furthermore, the adage "Defense wins championships" hasn't applied to these CFP title games. The Wolverines definitely have the better defense. But, this is the 10th CFP national championship. The total is 6-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the 1st nine. Eight of the nine CFP winners have scored at least 33 points.
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With that in mind, WASHINGTON PLUS THE POINTS is the play for the CFP title game. The Huskies have by far the best passing attack Michigan has faced this season. Penix was a Heisman Trophy finalist and Washington WR Rome Odunze could be a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. celebrates after a 37-31 victory vs. the Texas Longhorns in the CFP Semifinal Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Fellow OutKick writer, and college football analyst, Glenn Guilbeau wrote a great feature on the Huskies ahead of their Sugar Bowl win over Texas. Guilbeau discussed Washington's continuity and unique roster-building.
That continuity is a big reason why the Huskies have pulled out tight games. Yet, the Wolverines haven't played in as many "dog fights". The bottom line is I know Penix can throw Washington back into this game. Whereas I have questions about Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy playing from behind.