Celtics-Cavs Among Three NBA Games Worth Betting Monday

After an awesome Sunday in the Association, the NBA dials it back with a 6-game slate Monday. My favorite gambling looks are in the Hawks-Heat, Celtics-Cavaliers, and Pelicans-Kings.

BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” era. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.

Atlanta Hawks (32-32) at Miami Heat (34-31), 7:30 p.m. ET

The best argument for the Hawks +3 is the zig-zag theory or betting a team doesn't lose twice to the same opponent in back-to-back games.

That's a strong angle because it's tough beating the same team twice in consecutive meetings. Miami beat Atlanta 117-109 at home Saturday and the Heat covered as 3-point favorites.

But, I'm ignoring the zig-zag theory in this Hawks-Heat meeting. These teams know each other well. Hawks-Heat are in the same division and met last year in the playoffs.

Miami beat Atlanta 4-1 in the 1st round of the 2022 Eastern Conference playoffs. The Heat are 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Hawks this season.

Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo dunks on the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Also, Miami has a better offensive and defensive shot quality, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat have a better wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) on both ends of the floor as well.

Atlanta plays too much iso-ball, doesn't have enough shooting to space the floor and is easy to defend. Miami held Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to a combined 18 points on 5-of-27 shooting Saturday.

Miami has the two best players on the floor in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Bam is averaging 27.3 points on 62.7% shooting with 10.7 rebounds and a +22 net rating (nRTG) in the Hawks-Heat season series.

In his two games vs. Atlanta this season, Butler is averaging 24.5 points on 80.1% true shooting (.667/1.000/1.000) with 7.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and a +42 nRTG.

NBA Best Bet #1: Heat -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4

The Miami Heat's odds at the Atlanta Hawks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 6 at 2 a.m. ET.

Boston Celtics (45-19) at Cleveland Cavaliers (40-26), 7 p.m. ET

For this game, I will a fire a bet based on the zig-zag theory. Boston beat Cleveland 117-113 at home Wednesday. The Celtics failed to cover -4.5 when the Cavs "snuck in the backdoor" with a 35-21 final frame.

But, Boston won the 3rd quarter 41-26 so Cleveland was covering the spread at 75% of the game and those teams split the "four factors". The Celtics are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS vs. the Cavaliers this season.

Cleveland has a better 3PAr on both ends of the floor since the All-Star break. The Cavs have a +5.0 nRTG and the Celtics are -2.3 over that span. Boston is 1-5 ATS with a -8.1 ATS margin since the All-Star game.

Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum shoots a floater over Cavaliers big Evan Mobley at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

This is almost a "scheduled loss" for Boston, which hosted the Knicks last night (Sunday). The Celtics lost a hard-fought battle with NYK 131-129 in double overtime without C Robert Williams III and PG Malcolm Brogdon.

Boston going on the road to play another top-tier team the next night who wants revenge from a loss last week is a tough spot. Plus I wouldn't be surprised if the struggling Celtics gave a few starters the night off.

The Cavaliers are 22-11-1 ATS as home favorites this season with a +9.3 SU margin. Cleveland is 4-1 SU with a +15.4 non-garbage time nRTG at home vs. teams on the 2nd of a back-to-back, per CTG.

NBA Best Bet #2: Cavaliers -4 (-110) at DraftKings, up to -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers' odds at the Boston Celtics from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 6 at 2 a.m. ET.

New Orleans Pelicans (31-33) at Sacramento Kings (37-26), 10 p.m. ET

The Pelicans have lost four of their five games since returning from the All-Star break (1-4 ATS). New Orleans lost its previous outing at the Warriors 108-99 Friday.

Sacramento won its 1st five games following the All-Star game but lost its last game to the T-Wolves 138-134 at home Saturday. The Kings are 4-2 ATS over their last six games.

NOLA blasted Sactown 136-104 in their 1st meeting this season on Feb. 5. The Kings were missing All-Star De'Aaron Fox and the Pelicans were without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valančiūnas.

Fox is "questionable" to play with hamstring soreness (which sounds like a rest day is coming). Valančiūnas is also "questionable" and Zion is still sidelined with obesity or something.

Pelicans C.J. McCollum drives to the paint on the Kings at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. (Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images)

New Orleans smacked Sacramento with a MASH unit and a rest disadvantage. The Pelicans were on the 2nd of a back-to-back vs. the Kings last month and out-performed them in all "four factors".

The reason a short-handed NOLA team could put up 136 on 3-seed Sactown is because anyone can score on the Kings. They have the worst defense rating since the All-Star break.

Five of the last six teams that have beaten the Pelicans play much better defense than the Kings. C.J. McCollum and Ingram can cover the number against a Sactown team allergic to defense.

NBA Best Bet #3: Pelicans +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings, down to +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans' odds at the Sacramento Kings from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 6 at 3 a.m. ET.