Cease Should Punish Marlins

Padres vs. Marlins, 1:40 ET

This really has nothing to do with baseball, but I feel the need to share that the Olympics have been a welcome distraction during summer. Don't get me wrong, I love baseball, but watching a full game is something I can only rarely do. I think baseball would benefit from some sort of Red Zone style production. Think about it, every count with two strikes, or high stakes, bouncing between games, showing important plays or superstar at-bat. Either way, I've enjoyed baseball, but it has been nice having the Olympics to enjoy as well. In any case, I'm excited about the game between the Padres and the Marlins today and think we can pick up a little cash in it.

The Padres might have the best turnaround in baseball this season if it weren't for the Mets. This season, the Padres looked terrible, but they are now more than 10 games above .500 and look like a true threat to win the National League Championship and even World Series. Months ago, it looked like they would have no chance to even make the playoffs, now they are just 2.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and could take that instead of settling for a Wild Card spot. So what has changed? The team's health hasn't gotten all that much better - at least the pitching staff. Collectively the team is hitting. that's really all that there is to this. The pitching staff seems to have settled down even without Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish out. We will see how this all plays out, but for now, the team is running on all cylinders. Today one of their best pitchers, Dylan Cease, looks to beat the Marlins. Cease already owns a no-hitter this season, and has come close another time. He put together the type of July that the Padres expected when they acquired him. In July, he produced a 2.35 ERA over 38.1 innings (including that no-hitter. In fact, over the span of three games against the Braves, Guardians, and Nationals, he went 22 innings, allowing two hits, no runs, and 30 strikeouts. Cease hasn't faced the Marlins often, but they are just 2-for-18 against him over their careers. 

Aug 4, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Miami Marlins second baseman Otto Lopez (61) and right fielder Jesus Sanchez (12) celebrate after a win against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Mady Mertens-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins come into this game having their season ended far long ago. The white flag was basically waved as soon as they sent Luis Arraez to these Padres early in the season. The team, which was in the playoffs last season, found a way to reverse course and will lose around 100 games this season. This is a fairly normal process for the Marlins - they experience success, then trade off any player that might have interest from other teams. I suppose they deserve a bit of credit for being able to consistently turn around the roster and not suffer too many lengthy rebuilds. Either way, this season is an ugly one and there aren't many positive things to even discuss. Today's starter, Max Meyer, is making his seventh start of the year, and his past two starts haven't been pretty. He has gone a total of nine innings and allowed 10 earned runs, including four homers. Overall, the Marlins are 3-3 in his starts, and he has given them a solid outing in three of his six starts. However, it seems like people are starting to get a feel for him which is why he has struggled in his past few starts. He hasn't ever faced anyone on the Padres, but the way he is pitching, it may not matter.

There are a few ways we could play this. The Marlins team total going under is one good look, and one you may want to consider. Some sort of parlay of the Padres winning the first five innings and full game might be a decent idea to play. I think the safest play is to take the Padres on the run line in this game. Cease is pitching against a guy that probably should be in the minor leagues and most of the roster is made up of players that probably be down there too. Back the Padres to win this game big on the run line.

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